GET DAILY SIGNALSMattel (MAT) Q3 2026 Earnings: Profit Beat Stands Out Despite Sales Miss
Key Takeaways
- Mattel reported third quarter 2026 net sales of $1.81 billion, up 4% as reported (3% in constant currency), but slightly below the analyst consensus of roughly $1.83–$1.84 billion.
- Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $1.30, well above consensus estimates of around $0.94–$0.96 and up from $0.91 a year earlier.
- Adjusted gross margin jumped 480 basis points to 55.0%, largely driven by $88 million in tariff refunds received during the quarter.
- Full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $1.05–$1.20 fell short of the consensus expectation of roughly $1.30, a key driver of investor caution.
- Adjusted operating income rose $106 million to $502 million, while adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) reached about $543 million.
- For more on Mattel's latest developments, explore its Major News, Today's Price Move, Price Targets, and Forecast pages.
- Discover actionable market ideas by exploring Trending AI Robots.
Why This Report Matters
Mattel's third quarter 2026 results provide a useful checkpoint on whether the company can maintain its recent margin improvements and steady sales trajectory into the key holiday period. After several years of focus on profitability and demand stabilization, the quarter delivered a clear profit outperformance alongside some softer signals on top-line growth and the full-year outlook. In my view, the combination of efficiency gains and one-time benefits highlights progress, yet the guidance shortfall leaves room for caution on underlying demand trends.
The Quarter in Detail
MAT posted net sales of $1,807 million for the third quarter, reflecting a 4% reported increase and 3% growth in constant currency. That came in just below the consensus range of roughly $1.83–$1.84 billion. Reported gross margin expanded 480 basis points to 54.8%, while the adjusted figure reached 55.0%, helped by $88 million in tariff refunds. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Reported operating income rose $96 million to $476 million, and adjusted operating income increased $106 million to $502 million. Net income climbed $75 million to $354 million. Reported EPS reached $1.23 versus $0.88 last year, while adjusted EPS of $1.30 compared with $0.91 previously and exceeded the $0.94–$0.96 consensus. Adjusted EBITDA came in near $543 million. For the full year, management guided to 1%–4% constant-currency sales growth, an adjusted gross margin around 48%, operating income of $500–$570 million, and EPS of $1.05–$1.20, below the roughly $1.30 consensus.
Market Response
Investor reaction was measured, balancing the sizable profit beat and margin expansion against the revenue shortfall and tempered full-year EPS guidance. The adjusted EPS outperformance of about 38% above estimates stood out, yet attention quickly shifted to the non-recurring nature of the tariff benefit and questions around sustained demand. Shares showed some initial volatility, with reports noting both modest declines and slight gains depending on the timing. From what I see, the focus remains on whether earnings momentum can carry into 2027 without the one-time tailwinds.
Key Items to Monitor
With the holiday season now underway, attention turns to whether MAT can achieve its 1%–4% constant-currency sales growth target. Sell-through of major brands and any signs of inventory pressure or promotional activity will be closely watched. The full-year adjusted gross margin target of roughly 48% serves as an important gauge of core profitability once the tariff refund is behind us. Higher spending tied to the “Mattel 163” initiative could also influence near-term margins. Capital returns remain relevant after $308 million in share repurchases through the first nine months, and any updates on tariffs or currency will help shape next year’s expectations.
Using AI Tools in My Research
When reviewing results like these, I sometimes use Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly compare MAT against sector peers on fundamentals, technical patterns, and performance metrics. It helps surface related ideas in the consumer space without replacing the core earnings analysis.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
Momentum Indicator for MAT turns negative, indicating new downward trend
MAT saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on October 23, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 90 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 63 of the 90 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 70%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for MAT moved out of overbought territory on October 19, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 19 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 13 of the 19 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 68%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MAT turned negative on October 23, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 28 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 62%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MAT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
The Aroon Indicator for MAT entered a downward trend on September 30, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 7 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
MAT moved above its 50-day moving average on October 01, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for MAT crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 07, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 20 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
Following a +0.66% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MAT advanced for three days, in 173 of 293 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
MAT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MAT’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 71 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.226) is normal, around the industry mean (1.792). P/E Ratio (11.449) is within average values for comparable stocks, (1.385). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.915) is also within normal values, averaging (1.411). Dividend Yield (0.039) settles around the average of (0.032) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.732) is also within normal values, averaging (4.604).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 71 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MAT’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock worse than average.
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Advertisement
General Information
a manufacturer of toys
Industry RecreationalProducts
Advertisement