GET DAILY SIGNALSNational Grid (NGG) Reports +13% Rise in Underlying Operating Profit for the First Half
Key Takeaways
- Underlying operating profit rose 13% at constant currency to £2,292 million for the six months ended 30 September 2025.
- Underlying earnings per share (EPS) increased 6% to 29.8 pence, in line with management's expectations.
- Capital investment reached a record £5,052 million, up 12%, keeping the company on track for over £11 billion of annual investment.
- The Board declared an interim dividend of 16.35 pence per share, consistent with its progressive dividend policy.
- Net debt stood at £41.8 billion, up £0.5 billion since March 2025, reflecting higher capital spending.
- Full-year guidance was reaffirmed, with underlying EPS expected to align with the 6–8% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from the 2024/25 baseline.
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Putting the Results in Context
National Grid plc (NGG), the UK- and US-focused electricity and gas network operator, reported its half-year results for fiscal 2025/26 on 6 November 2025, covering the six months ended 30 September 2025. These results matter because the company is in the middle of one of the largest infrastructure investment programs in the energy sector, targeting roughly £60 billion of capital expenditure through March 2029. Investors closely watch whether that spending is translating into regulated revenue growth and earnings expansion. The period also marked leadership transition and portfolio streamlining, including the divestment of National Grid Renewables and the agreed sale of Grain LNG, which reshaped the earnings base compared with the prior year.
A Closer Look at the Numbers
National Grid delivered a solid first half, with underlying operating profit up 13% at constant currency to £2,292 million, driven by stronger performance across its regulated businesses. Underlying EPS rose 6% to 29.8 pence, reflecting higher operating profit that was partly offset by a larger weighted average share count following last year's rights issue and increased net interest costs. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Statutory operating profit grew 17% to £1,526 million. Growth was led by UK Electricity Transmission and the US regulated businesses, where new electricity distribution rates in New England and recent Niagara Mohawk (NIMO) rates in upstate New York supported results. Capital investment climbed 12% to a record £5,052 million, underpinned by the ramp-up of Wave 1 Accelerated Strategic Transmission Investment (ASTI) projects and higher spending on advanced metering and network reinforcement.
Results were broadly in line with management's pre-close guidance, with no major surprises on the top or bottom line. Net debt rose to £41.8 billion, partially offset by £1.5 billion in proceeds from the sale of National Grid Renewables. The Board declared an interim dividend of 16.35 pence per share.
How the Market Is Responding
National Grid shares have historically shown muted but steady reactions around results, reflecting the company's defensive, regulated earnings profile. The half-year update, delivered largely in line with expectations, reinforced confidence in the group's ability to fund its investment program while maintaining an inflation-protected dividend. Investors have focused less on short-term earnings surprises and more on regulatory progress, including the RIIO-T3 price control determination in the UK and rate case approvals covering roughly 75% of the US five-year investment plan. The reaffirmed 6–8% underlying EPS CAGR guidance and continued double-digit capital investment growth were viewed as key positives supporting sentiment.
What to Watch Going Forward
Looking ahead, National Grid's outlook remains anchored to execution of its £60 billion five-year investment plan through March 2029. The company reiterated its expectation that full-year underlying EPS will be in line with the 6–8% CAGR range from the 2024/25 baseline of 73.3 pence.
Investors should monitor the final outcome of the UK's RIIO-T3 price control, which runs from April 2026 and will determine the allowed returns and incentives for electricity transmission investment. The company has argued that the draft determination does not yet fully reflect the practical realities of delivering the largest electricity system expansion in a generation.
In the US, the focus remains on further rate case approvals and the potential Northeast Supply Enhancement pipeline, which could materially enhance reliability in New York. Cost trends, interest rate movements, and foreign exchange fluctuations will also influence earnings, given the group's substantial US dollar exposure. Leadership succession adds another factor to watch, with Zoë Yujnovich set to become CEO on 17 November 2025, succeeding John Pettigrew.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
NGG's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NGG turned positive on September 30, 2026. Looking at past instances where NGG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 07, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on NGG as a result. In 48 of 93 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 52%.
NGG moved above its 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for NGG crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 6 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 43%.
Following a +2.98% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NGG advanced for three days, in 174 of 341 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 51%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 162 of 336 cases where NGG Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 48%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for NGG moved out of overbought territory on November 03, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 40 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 18 of the 40 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 45%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 21 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NGG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 46%.
NGG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 13, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 16 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 24 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 50, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 26 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.180) is normal, around the industry mean (2.065). P/E Ratio (26.021) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.032). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.968) is also within normal values, averaging (1.785). Dividend Yield (0.102) settles around the average of (0.053) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.166) is also within normal values, averaging (187.392).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NGG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 99 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
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General Information
an operator of regulated electricity and gas infrastructure
Industry ElectricUtilities
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