GET DAILY SIGNALSNomura Holdings (NMR) Reports +13% Year-over-Year Net Income Growth in Fiscal Q2
Key Takeaways
- Net income rose 13% year-over-year to ¥103.7 billion (about $657 million), but fell 29% from the prior record quarter and came in below the ¥109.1 billion analyst consensus.
- Net revenue grew 18% year-over-year to ¥607.5 billion, with gains across all four core business units.
- Wealth Management was the standout: revenue climbed 22% to ¥141.5 billion and pre-tax income jumped 44% to ¥65.6 billion.
- Recurring revenue hit an all-time high of ¥66.7 billion, while net inflows into recurring revenue assets reached a record ¥755.4 billion.
- Wholesale pre-tax income fell 51% from the prior quarter as Global Markets cooled, partly offset by stronger investment banking.
- The interim dividend was raised to ¥35 per share (from ¥27 a year ago), and first-half return on equity (ROE) came in at 13.3%.
Why These Results Matter
Nomura Holdings, Japan’s largest brokerage and investment bank, reported results for its fiscal second quarter of 2027, the three months ended September 30, 2026. This report matters because it tests whether the firm can sustain momentum after a record first quarter, particularly as global market activity cooled and interest-rate uncertainty rose in both Japan and the U.S. Investors are closely watching the company’s multi-year shift toward stable, fee-based revenue, a strategy designed to reduce reliance on volatile trading income. With the Bank of Japan having delivered 50 basis points of rate hikes in 2026, the quarter also offered a fresh read on how rising yen rates are reshaping Nomura’s wealth and banking franchises. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Breaking Down the Numbers
Nomura reported net income attributable to shareholders of ¥103.7 billion (roughly $657 million) for the fiscal second quarter, up 13% from ¥92.1 billion a year earlier but down 29% sequentially from the record first quarter. The result missed the ¥109.1 billion average of five analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
Group net revenue rose 18% year-over-year to ¥607.5 billion (about $3.9 billion), though it declined 12% from the prior quarter. Income before income taxes was ¥148.0 billion, up 8% year-over-year but down 30% quarter-over-quarter. Diluted earnings per share for the period came to ¥34.61.
Wealth Management led the way, with net revenue up 22% year-over-year to ¥141.5 billion and pre-tax income up 44% to ¥65.6 billion. Recurring revenue reached a record ¥66.7 billion, and net inflows into recurring revenue assets hit an all-time high of ¥755.4 billion. Investment Management net revenue rose 39% to ¥84.8 billion, while Wholesale pre-tax income declined from an exceptionally strong first quarter. Nomura declared an interim dividend of ¥35 per share, up from ¥27 a year earlier, and reported a 13.3% ROE for the first half. From what I see, the strength in recurring revenue stands out as a key positive here.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
The market’s response was muted, reflecting a quarter that was solid year-over-year but softer than the record-setting prior period and slightly below consensus on the bottom line. In Tokyo, Nomura shares closed up 0.17% at ¥1,441.5, while the U.S.-listed ADR finished up 1.33% at $9.11. The relatively flat reaction suggests investors had largely priced in a moderation from the first quarter and were reassured by the continued strength in wealth management and recurring revenue, even as profit landed modestly below expectations.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Looking ahead, investors will be watching whether Nomura can keep building its recurring revenue base as a buffer against trading volatility. The record ¥755.4 billion in recurring revenue asset inflows and an all-time high in recurring revenue indicate that the firm’s wealth and asset management push is gaining traction, a theme management has emphasized as central to its business transformation.
Rising interest rates in Japan present a mixed picture. Higher yen rates have boosted bond sales and banking income, but they have also introduced uncertainty and prompted some retail investors to adopt a wait-and-see stance on certain products. How the Bank of Japan’s policy path evolves will remain a key swing factor for both the wealth and wholesale businesses.
In the wholesale segment, the challenge is sustaining investment banking momentum while Global Markets activity normalizes from elevated levels. Management has pointed to diversification of wholesale revenue as a priority. Progress toward the company’s raised ROE target of 10% to 12% or higher toward 2030, and the stability of the recurring revenue cost coverage ratio, will be important markers of whether the shift toward more predictable earnings is translating into durable profitability. I’m watching this closely as the transformation plays out.
AI Tools in My Research Process
I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener when analyzing earnings like these. It helps filter stocks and ETFs by technical patterns, fundamentals, and AI signals, giving a structured way to compare names in the financial sector and spot relevant setups without manual effort. This kind of tool has become a regular part of how I review quarterly results and monitor shifts in market conditions.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
NMR's RSI Oscillator ascends from oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for NMR moved out of oversold territory on October 27, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 27 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 20 of the 27 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 74%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 6 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +1.45% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NMR advanced for three days, in 206 of 304 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
NMR may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
NMR moved below its 50-day moving average on September 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for NMR crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NMR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
The Aroon Indicator for NMR entered a downward trend on October 27, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 1 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 21 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NMR’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 79 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.007) is normal, around the industry mean (3.578). P/E Ratio (0.066) is within average values for comparable stocks, (8.464). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.815) is also within normal values, averaging (0.809). Dividend Yield (0.042) settles around the average of (7.367) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.472) is also within normal values, averaging (16.763).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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a holding company with interests in financial services
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