ONEOK (OKE) Delivers Q2 2026 Beat and Raises Guidance, Shares Fall -3%
Key Takeaways
- ONEOK reported second-quarter 2026 net income attributable to ONEOK of $966 million, or $1.53 per diluted share, beating analyst consensus estimates of approximately $1.46 to $1.49 per share.
- Revenue climbed 52.8% year-over-year to $12.05 billion, well above the FactSet consensus estimate of $8.95 billion.
- Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) rose 7% to $2.12 billion, supported by record NGL (natural gas liquids) raw feed throughput volumes.
- ONEOK raised its full-year 2026 financial guidance, lifting the EPS (earnings per share) midpoint to $5.68 and adjusted EBITDA midpoint to $8.35 billion.
- Despite the earnings beat and guidance increase, ONEOK shares fell approximately 3% in the trading session following the release.
Why ONEOK’s Q2 Results Carry Weight
ONEOK’s second-quarter 2026 earnings carried added importance after a mixed first quarter that included an EPS miss. As one of North America’s largest midstream operators, OKE sits at the center of rising natural gas demand from data centers and LNG exports, shifting production dynamics between the Permian and Bakken, and the ongoing integration of the EnLink and Medallion acquisitions. With roughly 90% of earnings tied to fee-based contracts, the results offer a useful read on broader midstream health and volume trends.
The Quarter’s Reported Numbers
ONEOK posted second-quarter 2026 net income of $967 million, of which $966 million was attributable to shareholders—a 13% increase from $853 million ($841 million attributable) a year earlier. Diluted EPS reached $1.53, up from $1.34 and above the consensus range of $1.46 to $1.49. Revenue jumped 52.8% to $12.05 billion from $7.89 billion, clearing the FactSet estimate of $8.95 billion. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Adjusted EBITDA climbed 7% to $2.12 billion from $1.98 billion, helped by record NGL raw feed throughput and higher natural gas processing and refined products volumes. Operating income rose to $1.59 billion from $1.43 billion. Key volume moves included an 8% rise in refined products shipped, a 7% increase in NGL raw feed throughput (with a 15% jump in the Gulf Coast/Permian area), and a 2% gain in natural gas volumes processed. The Greater Denver refined products pipeline expansion reached mechanical completion in early August.
Market Reaction and Sentiment
Even with the earnings and revenue beats, OKE shares declined about 3% on the announcement day, closing near $88. The move likely reflected a few factors. The full-year 2026 EPS guidance midpoint of $5.68 came in just below the $5.79 consensus, which may have tempered expectations for a larger raise. Concerns about volume growth sustainability in the Bakken and Morgan Stanley’s recent downgrade to Equal Weight also weighed on sentiment. The reaction followed a similar pattern after the first-quarter report earlier in the year.
Guidance and Factors to Watch
ONEOK lifted its 2026 outlook, now projecting net income between $3.41 billion and $3.79 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $8.2 billion to $8.5 billion, and EPS at a $5.68 midpoint. Capital expenditure guidance stays at $2.7 billion to $3.2 billion. The mechanical completion of the Greater Denver pipeline should support incremental volumes ahead. Permian processing growth is expected to continue, helping offset steadier activity in the Bakken. Investors will also track commodity price spreads, the pace of EnLink and Medallion integration synergies, and macro drivers such as data-center gas demand and LNG exports that support the fee-based model.
Using Tickeron’s AI Screener in My Workflow
When I review earnings like these, Tickeron’s AI Screener helps me quickly filter midstream names against peers on volume trends, valuation, and technical signals. It surfaces comparable ideas efficiently and adds useful context to the reported results without replacing the core fundamental work.
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Financial writer and active order flow futures trader with a focus on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic factors, and equity research. I make in-depth blogs on stocks and ETFs, bridging the gap between raw market data and real-world trading decisions.
Aroon Indicator for OKE shows an upward move is likely
OKE's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on September 11, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 248 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In 180 of the 248 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at 73%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +0.82% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where OKE advanced for three days, in 257 of 383 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
OKE may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for OKE moved out of overbought territory on August 19, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 34 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 17 of the 34 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 50%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 15, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on OKE as a result. In 49 of 94 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 52%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for OKE turned negative on September 10, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 28 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 61%.
OKE moved below its 50-day moving average on September 21, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where OKE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 51%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 17 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.569) is normal, around the industry mean (179.367). P/E Ratio (16.142) is within average values for comparable stocks, (24.152). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.765) is also within normal values, averaging (13.699). Dividend Yield (0.045) settles around the average of (0.048) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.487) is also within normal values, averaging (4.657).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 29 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 40, placing this stock slightly worse than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. OKE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 53 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
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a company which purchases, gathers, compresses, transports and stores natural gas
Industry OilGasPipelines
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