QBTS and RGTI: Quantum Computing Stocks with +104% and +74% Implied Upside
Key Takeaways
- Both QBTS and RGTI are speculative pure-play quantum computing stocks that recently secured up to $100 million each in U.S. CHIPS Act funding.
- QBTS carries a "Strong Buy" consensus with roughly 104% average implied upside, while RGTI holds a "Buy" consensus with about 74% implied upside.
- D-Wave shows stronger bookings momentum (up 1,120% year over year in the first half), while Rigetti posted faster recent revenue growth of 185% year over year.
- Both names remain deeply unprofitable and trade at steep price-to-sales (P/S) multiples, making valuation and cash burn central risks.
- Recent sector-wide rallies have lifted both stocks, but much of the move has been driven by read-across from peers rather than company-specific catalysts.
- Market positioning differs: QBTS leads in commercial quantum annealing, while RGTI focuses on superconducting gate-model processors.
Introduction
Quantum computing stands out as one of the most closely watched speculative themes in technology right now, with D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) and Rigetti Computing (RGTI) among the leading pure-play names. Both recently secured major U.S. government support, and both have seen sharp share-price swings as sentiment around commercialization shifts. This comparison looks at their business models, recent momentum, risk profiles, and relative performance to help assess how the two stack up. It is especially relevant for those considering exposure to an emerging, high-volatility sector where technical milestones and funding news can trigger outsized moves. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stocks compare to others in the industry.
D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) Overview and Recent Performance
D-Wave operates a dual-platform quantum computing business, best known for its commercialized quantum annealing systems aimed at optimization problems, while it also develops gate-model machines. The company has positioned itself with one of the more established near-term commercialization paths, pointing to more than 100 revenue-generating customers in areas such as telecom and logistics.
In recent weeks, QBTS finalized a definitive agreement with the U.S. Department of Commerce for access to up to $100 million in CHIPS and Science Act funding to support development of its annealing and gate-model systems. It also expanded commercial deployments with partners including NTT DOCOMO and AT&T. First-half bookings jumped 1,120% year over year, though quarterly revenue stayed modest at roughly $3.1 million. Sentiment remains mixed: the stock has fallen significantly from its 52-week high and trades lower over the past three months, even as it joined recent sector rallies. A cash burn rate of around $37 million per quarter and a valuation above 90 times forward sales are important factors to weigh.
Rigetti Computing (RGTI) Overview and Recent Performance
Rigetti designs and operates superconducting quantum computers and the processors that power them, advancing a chiplet-based roadmap toward systems of up to 1,000 qubits. Its focus remains on gate-model quantum hardware, with recent progress on the 108-qubit Cepheus-1 platform.
Like D-Wave, RGTI finalized an agreement with the U.S. Department of Commerce for up to $100 million in CHIPS Act funding, with the government taking a minority, non-controlling equity stake. The company also expanded a collaboration with Hewlett Packard Enterprise and the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center on a nine-qubit Novera system backed by a National Science Foundation grant. Revenue in the most recent quarter rose 185% year over year to about $5.1 million, helped by on-premises processor sales, and gross margin widened to 43%. Rigetti holds a strong balance sheet with roughly $541 million in cash and no debt, though operating expenses stay elevated relative to its small revenue base, and the stock has also declined over the trailing three months while participating in recent quantum rallies.
Side-by-Side Comparison
The two companies follow different paths in quantum computing. QBTS stands out through its commercialized annealing technology already delivering practical use cases, backed by a newer gate-model program and the acquisition of Quantum Circuits. RGTI, in contrast, concentrates on superconducting gate-model processors and a modular, chiplet-based hardware roadmap.
On growth, Rigetti has delivered faster recent revenue expansion, while D-Wave has shown stronger order-book momentum. Both now hold substantial cash cushions after their government awards, but D-Wave’s higher cash burn rate emerges as a comparative risk. Valuation also varies: D-Wave trades at a higher forward price-to-sales multiple relative to its revenue base, while Rigetti appears expensive on price-to-book versus the broader semiconductor group. Analyst sentiment favors QBTS with a stronger consensus rating and larger implied upside, while RGTI carries a more moderate “Buy” rating. Both stocks remain highly sensitive to sector news flow, so peer catalysts can drive sizable sympathy moves in either direction.
Where the Analysis Points
Based on factors such as trend consistency, stability, catalysts, and relative positioning, the assessment leans toward QBTS at this stage. D-Wave currently demonstrates stronger commercial bookings momentum, a more established near-term revenue path through annealing, a higher consensus rating, and larger average implied upside from analysts. Its higher cash burn and loftier valuation, however, introduce meaningful downside risk. RGTI offers a cleaner balance sheet and faster recent growth, but its earlier-stage commercial profile and more moderate consensus support suggest slightly less conviction in near-term positioning. This view is probabilistic rather than definitive and reflects current data rather than a fixed forecast.
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Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
RGTI's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for RGTI turned positive on September 17, 2026. Looking at past instances where RGTI's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 41 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on September 17, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on RGTI as a result. In 74 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.
RGTI moved above its 50-day moving average on September 21, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +4.15% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where RGTI advanced for three days, in 219 of 255 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
The 10-day moving average for RGTI crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on August 28, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 11 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 82%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where RGTI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 85%.
RGTI broke above its upper Bollinger Band on September 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for RGTI entered a downward trend on September 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 64 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. RGTI’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 86 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (9.785) is normal, around the industry mean (7.364). P/E Ratio (0.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (49.824). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (23.980). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.004) among similar stocks. RGTI's P/S Ratio (370.370) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (51.774).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. RGTI’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 86, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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