GET DAILY SIGNALSQCR Holdings (QCRH) Q3 2026 Earnings Preview: Tracking the Expected -3.7% EPS Shift and Margin Outlook
Key Takeaways
- QCR Holdings (NASDAQ: QCRH) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 results after the market closes on Tuesday, October 20, 2026, followed by a conference call on Wednesday, October 21, 2026.
- Wall Street consensus expects earnings of $2.09 per share and revenue of approximately $102.47 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2026.
- The consensus EPS estimate implies a year-over-year decline of roughly 3.7%, even as analysts expect revenue to edge about 1% higher.
- QCR Holdings has beaten consensus earnings per share (EPS) estimates in each of its last four reported quarters, most recently delivering $2.19 versus a $1.90 estimate in the second quarter of 2026.
- Management has guided for a "relatively static" third-quarter net interest margin (NIM) and lowered its noninterest expense outlook to a range of $54 million to $57 million.
Why This Report Stands Out
QCR Holdings, Inc. operates as a Midwest-based regional bank holding company focused on traditional commercial banking, wealth management, and its Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) lending and capital markets platform that supports affordable-housing projects. This quarter’s results will help clarify whether the bank can maintain its profitability, loan growth, and cost control amid changing interest rates and deposit competition. The company has delivered EPS beats across the past four quarters and recently completed a core system conversion, so this release offers a useful checkpoint on execution. I’m also watching whether margin pressure has eased, consistent with management’s earlier comments heading into the report.
Earnings Expectations in Focus
Analysts project QCR Holdings will post third-quarter 2026 earnings of $2.09 per share, which would mark a decline of about 3.7% from the year-ago period. Revenue is expected near $102.47 million, reflecting roughly 1% year-over-year growth. These estimates follow a solid second quarter in which the company reported diluted EPS of $2.19, surpassing the $1.90 consensus by more than 15%, alongside revenue of about $106.8 million.
Key metrics to track include net interest income, which reached $67.9 million in the second quarter of 2026, and the tax-equivalent net interest margin of 3.55%. Management has indicated it expects a “relatively static” NIM for the third quarter assuming no Federal Reserve rate moves. Additional areas of interest are noninterest expense, LIHTC-related capital markets revenue, loan growth, deposit costs, and nonperforming asset levels. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Market Reaction and Sentiment
Investor sentiment appears cautiously constructive ahead of the release. Shares were recently trading near $99.43, below the average analyst price target of roughly $110.50, which points to some potential upside in analyst views. Historically, the stock has shown modest post-earnings moves, and the consistent EPS beats have contributed to a positive drift after recent reports. That said, the anticipated year-over-year EPS decline introduces a note of caution. Potential risks include unexpected margin compression, softer LIHTC capital markets activity, or higher noninterest expenses tied to digital transformation efforts. A larger-than-expected earnings shortfall could weigh on the stock even if revenue remains steady.
Forward Outlook and Items to Monitor
After the report, attention will turn to whether the net interest margin has held steady as guided. Confirmation of a “relatively static” NIM would suggest deposit-cost pressures are moderating while loan yields remain firm.
Expense management remains another focal point. The company has lowered its third-quarter noninterest expense guidance to $54 million to $57 million, aligning with its “9/6/5” strategic model that aims for annual noninterest expense growth below 5%. Progress on the core system conversion and digital initiatives will be evaluated for their effect on operating efficiency.
The LIHTC business continues to serve as a distinguishing factor. Management has raised the lower end of its capital markets revenue guidance to a $60 million to $70 million range over the next four quarters, supported by demand for affordable housing. Investors should follow securitization and construction-loan sale activity, which generate fee income while helping manage balance sheet growth below the $10 billion asset threshold.
Loan and deposit trends across the Midwest footprint, along with asset quality measures such as nonperforming assets, will also provide insight into whether QCR Holdings can extend its earnings beat streak and sustain above-peer profitability into 2027.
Integrating AI Tools Into My Research Process
I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Trend Prediction Engine when preparing for earnings seasons like this one. It helps surface broader sector patterns and compare individual names against peers without spending hours on manual analysis, which keeps my workflow efficient ahead of reports like QCR Holdings’.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
QCRH in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on October 07, 2026
QCRH may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 28 of 37 cases where QCRH's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 43 of 60 cases where QCRH's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for QCRH just turned positive on October 16, 2026. Looking at past instances where QCRH's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Following a +1.70% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where QCRH advanced for three days, in 193 of 317 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 06, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on QCRH as a result. In 52 of 87 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
QCRH moved below its 50-day moving average on September 16, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for QCRH crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where QCRH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
The Aroon Indicator for QCRH entered a downward trend on October 16, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 24 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 27 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. QCRH’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 72 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.408) is normal, around the industry mean (1.237). P/E Ratio (11.631) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.122). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.290) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.006) settles around the average of (0.036) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.386) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
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a regional bank
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