Regal Rexnord (RRX) Shares Drop -21.9% Over 30 Days on Earnings Concerns
Key Takeaways
- Regal Rexnord shares fell about 21.9% over the past 30 days, from a closing price of $212.74 on July 24, 2026 to $166.15 on August 21, 2026.
- The sharpest decline came on August 5, 2026, when the stock dropped roughly 15% following second-quarter results that missed revenue expectations and included lower margin guidance.
- Despite beating adjusted EPS and EBITDA estimates, investors focused on a cut to the company's underlying 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin outlook and reduced free cash flow guidance.
- Over the last quarter the stock is down about 15%, reversing a rally that had carried shares to a 52-week high of $247.80 in early July.
- Strength in the Automation & Motion Control segment, driven by data centers and automation, has been offset by persistent weakness in residential HVAC and pool markets.
Regal Rexnord's Business and Market Position
Regal Rexnord Corporation is a Milwaukee-based manufacturer of power transmission and industrial automation products. The company produces electric motors, electrical motion controls, power generation equipment, and related components used across industrial, commercial, and residential applications. It operates through three reporting segments: Automation & Motion Control (AMC), Industrial Powertrain Solutions (IPS), and Power Efficiency Solutions (PES).
Formed through the 2021 combination of Regal Beloit and Rexnord's process and motion control business, Regal Rexnord has positioned itself around secular growth themes, including data centers, discrete automation, and aerospace and defense. Its diversified customer base and installed base of equipment make the stock a closely watched barometer for broader industrial demand and manufacturing activity. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
RRX Stock Performance Over the Past 30 Days and Quarter
Over the trailing 30 days, Regal Rexnord shares declined approximately 21.9%, falling from a closing price of $212.74 on July 24, 2026 to $166.15 on August 21, 2026. The move was heavily concentrated around the company's August 5 earnings report, when the stock fell roughly 15% in a single session on sharply elevated volume.
The broader quarterly picture tells a similar story of reversal. Three months earlier, the stock closed near $196 in late May, meaning it is down roughly 15% over the last quarter. Notably, shares had rallied strongly into late June and early July, reaching an intraday 52-week high of $247.80 on July 1, 2026, before the trend turned decisively lower. From that peak, the stock has retraced more than 30%.
What Drove the Recent Move in RRX
The primary catalyst was the company's second-quarter 2026 earnings report, released on August 5, 2026. Regal Rexnord reported net sales of $1.56 billion, up 4.2% year over year but slightly below the consensus estimate of about $1.58 billion. Adjusted earnings per share of $2.99 comfortably beat the consensus of roughly $2.58, and adjusted EBITDA of about $367 million also exceeded expectations.
Despite the bottom-line beats, investors sold the stock on concerns about the company's margin trajectory. Management lowered its underlying full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin outlook to 21.3% excluding tariff refunds, citing higher inflation, slower productivity gains, and unfavorable mix. Free cash flow guidance was reduced by $50 million to $600 million, reflecting increased working capital tied to growth. The quarter also benefited from $32 million in IEEPA tariff refunds, which bolstered reported margins and earnings.
The selloff was preceded by pre-earnings de-risking in late July, when shares fell more than 5% in a single session, and by an analyst downgrade on July 18 that trimmed the rating on the stock from a stronger to a lower buy recommendation. Together, these factors compounded the post-earnings decline.
Broader Drivers Behind RRX Performance Last Quarter
Over the last quarter, the dominant narrative has been the tension between strong order growth and weakening profitability. The AMC segment delivered standout performance, with organic sales up 15.6% in the second quarter on demand from data centers, discrete automation, and aerospace and defense. Total enterprise daily orders rose 8.8% year over year, and July orders remained up about 7%.
However, that top-line momentum has not translated into expanding margins. The PES segment saw organic sales decline 6.6% amid soft residential HVAC and pool demand, while IPS growth was trimmed to low single digits on large-project timing. Rising input costs, tariffs, and rare-earth material costs have pressured price-cost dynamics. The appointment of Aamir Paul as CEO effective July 1, 2026, marked a leadership transition during a period of execution uncertainty, adding another variable for investors to weigh.
What to Watch in the RRX Outlook
Investors will be watching several factors over the coming quarters. The ramp of Regal Rexnord's ePOD modular data-center power product, expected to contribute roughly $15 million of revenue in the fourth quarter, is a key near-term milestone for the data-center growth story. Margin execution will also remain in focus, particularly whether price-cost headwinds ease and productivity initiatives recover without compromising service levels.
Residential HVAC and pool end markets remain a swing factor for the PES segment, while the timing of large IPS project activity and the 2027 backlog, which management said is up more than 20% year over year, will shape revenue visibility. Macroeconomic conditions, tariff policy, and interest-rate-sensitive industrial demand are additional variables. Investors should monitor the next quarterly earnings report, scheduled for early November 2026, for updated guidance on sales, margins, and cash flow.
Using AI Tools to Navigate Stock Volatility
When reviewing situations like the recent pullback in RRX, I find it helpful to look at automated strategies for additional perspective. Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page offers a curated view of algorithmic trading strategies. It features top-performing bots that monitor thousands of tickers, with details on strategy, timeframe, and performance metrics. This allows users to compare different approaches in a neutral way and gain extra insight into how AI-driven systems are positioned across volatile names.
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RRX's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for RRX entered a downward trend on September 18, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 200 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 166 of the 200 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 09, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on RRX as a result. In 75 of 94 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
The 50-day moving average for RRX moved below the 200-day moving average on September 11, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where RRX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for RRX just turned positive on September 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where RRX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Following a +0.69% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where RRX advanced for three days, in 232 of 334 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
RRX may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 35 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.426) is normal, around the industry mean (5.575). P/E Ratio (30.463) is within average values for comparable stocks, (67.294). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.104) is also within normal values, averaging (1.856). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.014) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.644) is also within normal values, averaging (186.943).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 64 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. RRX’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 66 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 83 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. RRX’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a manufacturer of electrical and mechanical motion control products
Industry IndustrialMachinery
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