Why IBM Just Plunged 10%: The AI Shock Wall Street Didn’t See Coming

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for IBM turned negative on September 18, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 37 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 22 of the 37 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 59%.

IBM moved below its 50-day moving average on September 24, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

The 10-day moving average for IBM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 8 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where IBM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 55%.

IBM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on September 11, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 11 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.

Following a +6.44% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where IBM advanced for three days, in 248 of 377 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 167 of 264 cases where IBM Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 63%.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 9 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.035) is normal, around the industry mean (7.462). P/E Ratio (19.598) is within average values for comparable stocks, (67.645). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.087) is also within normal values, averaging (2.284). IBM has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.031) as compared to the industry average of (0.010). P/S Ratio (3.271) is also within normal values, averaging (141.758).

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 29 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 93, placing this stock slightly better than average.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. IBM’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.