Ross Stores (ROST) Q1 Earnings Preview: Momentum into Spring Amid Value-Driven Demand
Key Takeaways
- Analysts expect Q1 2026 EPS of about $1.65-$1.69, up from $1.47 last year, aligning closely with company guidance of $1.60-$1.67.
- Revenue consensus points to roughly $5.57 billion, reflecting 11-12% growth year-over-year amid 7%-8% comparable store sales (comps) outlook.
- Ross Stores enters earnings with strong momentum from Q4 FY2025 beat, where EPS hit $2.00 versus $1.90 expected.
- Guidance assumes total sales up 10%-12% for Q1, driven by Spring season strength and value-seeking shoppers.
- Investors watching comps, margins, and updates on tariff costs or distribution efficiencies.
- Stock near 52-week highs, with "Strong Buy" consensus rating ahead of May 21 release.
Earnings Context and Why This Report Matters
As we approach the first quarter fiscal 2026 earnings for Ross Stores (ROST), reporting after market close on May 21 for the 13 weeks ending May 2, 2026, I'm paying close attention to how the company sustains its holiday momentum into the Spring season. Ross Stores, the leading U.S. off-price apparel and home goods retailer, has benefited from a value-driven shift among consumers favoring discount options. After a strong Q4 FY2025 that delivered 9% comps and record full-year sales of $22.8 billion, the company guided for Q1 comps of 7%-8%—a notable step up from the flat performance in Q1 FY2025. From what I see, this report will provide key signals on traffic trends, inventory management, and margin resilience in the face of potential tariff pressures. With shares trading near all-time highs, the outcome here will influence perspectives on FY2026's projected 3%-4% comps and EPS growth to $7.02-$7.36.
What to Expect from Q1 Results
Wall Street's consensus calls for Q1 FY2026 EPS of $1.65 to $1.69, marking a 12%-15% rise from the $1.47 reported last year, which tracks closely with Ross Stores' guidance of $1.60-$1.67 based on 7%-8% comps. Revenue estimates average around $5.57 billion according to Yahoo Finance, signaling 11%-12% growth from Q1 FY2025's $5.0 billion and aligning with the company's total sales outlook of 10%-12%. Investors will focus on operating margins, projected at 11.8%-12.1% versus 12.2% last year due to distribution costs, along with store traffic trends.
In last year's Q1, comps were flat but EPS exceeded estimates by $0.03, with sales beating forecasts as well. ROST has a solid track record, beating EPS expectations in the last four quarters—including a $0.12 surprise in Q4 FY2025. Post-earnings stock moves have typically been muted at around 2%-3%, though stronger comp beats have sparked upside, like the ~8% gain after Q4.
I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to gauge how ROST stacks up against peers in the off-price retail space based on recent patterns and fundamentals.
AI Screener: My Go-To Tool for Earnings Prep
In my research process, I rely on Tickeron’s AI Screener, an AI-powered tool for discovering stocks and ETFs by filtering on technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI signals. It lets me scan thousands of names with custom criteria like industry, market cap, technical indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics—far more efficiently than manual reviews. For sectors like off-price apparel, it highlights trade ideas, breakouts, and opportunities, which has been especially useful ahead of earnings. I've found it sharpens my focus on data-driven picks in retail.
Market Sentiment and Likely Reactions
Sentiment remains bullish heading into this report, with a "Strong Buy" consensus from 14 of 18 analysts. Shares are up over 20% year-to-date, hovering near $230 highs on the back of Q4 strength. Options pricing suggests 6%-9% volatility post-earnings. On the risk side, softer comps could emerge from Spring weather or macro factors like inflation curbing traffic, alongside potential margin pressure from tariffs or distribution center ramp-up. Upside potential rests on reaffirmed guidance and gains across categories.
Looking Ahead: Guidance and Metrics to Watch
Following Q1, attention will turn to whether management reaffirms FY2026 guidance of 3%-4% comps on top of FY2025's 5% and EPS of $7.02-$7.36, pointing to about 10% growth excluding prior-year items. The company has emphasized Spring momentum, but I'll be parsing updates on consumer trends that continue to favor off-price shopping amid budget pressures.
Key areas to monitor include comp breakdowns by category (apparel versus home), traffic and transaction details, and inventory levels. Margins face challenges from new distribution centers—reflected in higher DC costs in guidance—and potential tariff increases, which impacted ~$0.16 per share in FY2025. Plans for 100 new stores annually and a $2.55 billion buyback authorization underscore management's confidence in expansion.
One thing that stands out is the broader context: Q2 previews for back-to-school and Summer, comparisons to peers like TJX and Burlington, and economic indicators such as retail sales and consumer confidence. Ross Stores' execution on value assortments positions it well for market share, though macro volatility means staying alert to demand signals.
Disclaimer
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Financial writer and active order flow futures trader with a focus on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic factors, and equity research. I make in-depth blogs on stocks and ETFs, bridging the gap between raw market data and real-world trading decisions.
ROST in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on August 27, 2026
ROST moved below its 50-day moving average on August 27, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 18 of 27 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 15, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ROST as a result. In 44 of 85 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 52%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ROST turned negative on August 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 21 of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 42%.
The 10-day moving average for ROST crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 01, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 7 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ROST declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
The Aroon Indicator for ROST entered a downward trend on September 17, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where ROST's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 22 of 27 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 33 of 57 cases where ROST's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
Following a +2.43% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ROST advanced for three days, in 216 of 350 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
ROST may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 89, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 24 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ROST’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 94 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ROST's P/B Ratio (10.870) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (2.948). P/E Ratio (27.748) is within average values for comparable stocks, (19.595). ROST's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.460) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.646). ROST has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.008) as compared to the industry average of (0.035). ROST's P/S Ratio (2.952) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (0.652).
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General Information
an operator of discount clothing chains & sells closeout merchandise
Industry ApparelFootwearRetail
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