GET DAILY SIGNALSSatellogic (SATL) Falls -20% in 30 Days: Examining the Recent Pullback
Key Takeaways
- Satellogic (SATL) shares declined roughly 20% over the last 30 days, falling from about $4.11 to approximately $3.30.
- The pullback followed a sharp rally earlier in the year that lifted the stock from about $3.58 in late July to a peak near $6.17 in late September.
- Third-quarter revenue reached a record $16.0 million, up 342% year over year, but sequential growth stalled and the prior quarter's operating-profit inflection partially reversed.
- Remaining performance obligations declined to $66.9 million, and a legacy data agreement was set to expire in November, adding to investor caution.
- The Merlin.01 satellite launched on schedule, but Merlin revenue is not expected to begin until the second half of 2027.
Satellogic (SATL) Company Background and Positioning
Satellogic is a vertically integrated Earth observation company that designs, manufactures, and operates its own satellite systems to deliver high-resolution imagery and geospatial analytics to government and commercial customers. Founded in 2010 and listed on Nasdaq under the ticker SATL, the company operates one of the largest high-resolution commercial constellations and generates revenue through two connected lines of business: Data & Analytics, which includes imagery sales and Constellation-as-a-Service offerings, and Space Systems, which involves building satellites and transferring in-orbit assets to sovereign and defense customers.
Investors follow SATL for its low-cost, vertically integrated manufacturing model, its growing sovereign defense pipeline, and its AI-first Merlin constellation, which is designed to remap the planet daily at one-meter resolution with onboard processing and real-time alerting. The company has strengthened its U.S. defense positioning through leadership appointments and multi-million-dollar contracts with allied governments. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Satellogic (SATL) Stock Price Moves: Last 30 Days and the Quarter
Over the last 30 days, SATL shares fell from a closing price of about $4.11 to approximately $3.30, a decline of roughly 20%. The move was not a straight line: the stock experienced elevated volatility, including a brief intraday spike in early November before resuming its downward trend.
The broader quarterly picture tells a similar story of a sharp reversal. Roughly three months earlier, shares traded near $5.80, meaning the stock has shed approximately 43% over that period. The decline is even more pronounced when measured from the late-September peak near $6.17, representing a drawdown of close to 47%. In effect, the stock gave back a large portion of the gains built during its mid-2026 rally.
Factors Behind the Recent 30-Day Decline in SATL
The recent decline reflects a combination of profit-taking after a strong run-up and renewed scrutiny of the company's near-term profitability trajectory. Satellogic reported third-quarter results that showed record revenue of $16.0 million, up 342% year over year, and a second consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA. However, the details unsettled some investors.
Sequential revenue growth effectively stalled, rising only from $15.9 million in the second quarter to $16.0 million in the third. The operating result swung from a modest profit to a $2.3 million loss, and adjusted EBITDA declined to $1.2 million from $2.8 million in the prior quarter. Remaining performance obligations fell to $66.9 million from $80.7 million, and a legacy data agreement with Palantir was scheduled to expire in November without a confirmed extension. The company also reiterated that Merlin revenue is not expected until the second half of 2027, limiting near-term diversification. These factors, combined with continued negative free cash flow, weighed on sentiment despite the record top line. From what I see, the expiration of that Palantir agreement stands out as a near-term pressure point.
Quarterly Performance Context and Market Reaction
Over the last quarter, the dominant narrative has been the unwind of an exceptionally strong rally. Earlier in 2026, Satellogic's shares surged on accelerating revenue growth, the company's first-ever quarter of positive operating income, sovereign satellite wins, and enthusiasm around the Merlin constellation. By late September, the stock had climbed to a multi-year high near $6.17.
The subsequent reversal reflected a reset in expectations. As the third-quarter report showed slower sequential momentum, a partial reversal of the operating-profit inflection, and a drawdown in backlog, investors reassessed how quickly the company could convert its pipeline into sustainable earnings. The broader pullback in high-multiple growth and space-sector names during the period also contributed to the selloff, compounding stock-specific concerns.
Key Drivers to Monitor for SATL Going Forward
Looking ahead, several factors will shape SATL's trajectory. The most immediate is whether the company can replenish its backlog, particularly through the roughly $37 million in-orbit transfer agreement for three satellites announced after the third quarter. Investors will also watch for any resolution or replacement of the expiring Palantir data agreement, which affects the Data & Analytics segment.
Merlin's progress remains a central catalyst: payload commissioning and additional launches through the first half of 2027 will determine whether the company can begin generating Merlin revenue in the second half of 2027. Beyond company-specific items, macroeconomic conditions, defense and intelligence budget trends, and the appetite for high-growth space-sector equities will all influence sentiment. As with any early-stage growth company, execution risk around costs, cash flow, and contract timing remains a key consideration for investors. I’m watching this closely as the company works to stabilize its backlog.
Exploring AI-Driven Trading Approaches
In my view, automated strategies can provide useful context when evaluating names like SATL. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals to see how quantitative models are positioning around recent volatility.
Using Tickeron Tools for Ongoing Research
One thing that stands out when reviewing satellite and space-related equities is how AI platforms can help surface comparable setups or trend signals. I recently used Tickeron’s AI Trend Prediction Engine to cross-check momentum indicators for SATL against peers, which added perspective on the post-rally reset without replacing my own fundamental review.
Promo Section
I find Tickeron’s Trending AI Robots page helpful for seeing which automated strategies are currently performing well across various tickers. The curated list highlights top bots with different holding periods and approaches, giving me an extra lens on how rule-based systems are handling market conditions like the recent pullback in growth names.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
SATL saw its Stochastic Oscillator peaks and leaves the overbought zone
The Stochastic Oscillator for SATL moved out of overbought territory on November 12, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock and investors may want to consider selling or taking a defensive position. A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances where the indicator exited the overbought zone. In 42 of the 45 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 10, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SATL as a result. In 82 of 90 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
The 10-day moving average for SATL crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
The 50-day moving average for SATL moved below the 200-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SATL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 86%.
The Aroon Indicator for SATL entered a downward trend on November 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where SATL's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 26 of 29 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SATL just turned positive on November 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where SATL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 40 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 88%.
Following a +37.20% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SATL advanced for three days, in 180 of 216 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
SATL may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 62 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: SATL's P/B Ratio (15.791) is slightly higher than the industry average of (5.050). P/E Ratio (-5.800) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.247). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (3.110). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.055) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (24.390) is also within normal values, averaging (18.367).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 64 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. SATL’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 99 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SATL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock worse than average.
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Advertisement
General Information
Industry AerospaceDefense
Advertisement