GET DAILY SIGNALSScotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) Posts Q4 Sales Dip but Beats on Full-Year EPS and Raises 2027 Outlook
Key Takeaways
- Scotts Miracle-Gro reported fiscal fourth-quarter net sales of $302.9 million, down 11% from the prior-year quarter.
- The company posted an adjusted loss of $2.16 per share, narrower than the roughly $2.22 loss Wall Street had expected.
- For the full fiscal year 2026, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose 18% to $4.48, exceeding the company's raised guidance range of $4.30 to $4.45.
- Full-year net sales grew 1% to $3.29 billion, while adjusted gross margin expanded 80 basis points to 32.4%.
- Management issued fiscal 2027 guidance for 2% to 4% sales growth and adjusted EPS of $4.70 to $4.90, above consensus estimates.
- For more information on this ticker's Major News, Today's Price Move, Price Targets, and Forecast, explore the additional pages available for SMG.
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Why the Quarter Matters
Scotts Miracle-Gro's fiscal fourth quarter, which ends September 30, is seasonally its weakest period, as lawn and garden demand fades heading into winter. That makes the quarter a better read on retailer inventory management and full-year execution than on near-term consumer demand. This report also marked the first full fiscal year since the company completed its exit from the Hawthorne hydroponics business, sharpening its focus on branded U.S. consumer products. Investors were watching closely to see whether the company could defend gross margins, sustain free cash flow, and de-lever its balance sheet after a period of elevated debt. The fiscal 2027 outlook provided alongside these results offers an early signal on pricing power, cost control, and the company's SMG 2.0 transformation strategy. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to compare SMG against peers in the consumer and agricultural inputs space.
The Reported Numbers
For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, Scotts Miracle-Gro reported net sales of $302.9 million, an 11% decline from $340.1 million a year earlier. The adjusted net loss from continuing operations was $125.4 million, or $2.16 per share, compared with a loss of $1.97 per share in the prior-year period. The loss was narrower than the roughly $2.22 per share analysts had projected, even as revenue came in slightly below consensus.
Full-year results painted a stronger picture. Net sales rose 1% to $3.29 billion, driven by growth in branded products and continued e-commerce expansion. Adjusted EPS increased 18% to $4.48, above the company's raised guidance of $4.30 to $4.45. Adjusted gross margin expanded 80 basis points to 32.4%, and adjusted EBITDA grew 2% to $579.9 million. Free cash flow reached $278.4 million, edging past the company's $275 million target, while net leverage improved to 3.89 times.
Looking ahead, management guided to fiscal 2027 net sales growth of 2% to 4%, continued gross margin expansion, adjusted EPS of $4.70 to $4.90, and free cash flow of approximately $275 million.
Market Reaction and Sentiment
Shares of SMG rose sharply following the report, gaining roughly 8% to 10% in early trading on November 4, 2026, as investors focused on the better-than-expected quarterly loss and the above-consensus fiscal 2027 guidance. The reaction reflected relief that the company met or exceeded its full-year commitments for net sales, gross margin, EPS, and free cash flow despite a challenging commodity and freight environment.
Still, the underlying quarter showed areas of concern. U.S. Consumer segment sales fell 10%, and fourth-quarter adjusted gross margin turned slightly negative at -0.7% due to unfavorable fixed-cost leverage, higher freight costs, and lower Roundup commission income. The market's focus on the full-year trajectory and forward guidance suggests investors are weighing near-term seasonal softness against the company's progress on margin expansion, cash generation, and debt reduction.
Forward Outlook and Factors to Watch
Management's fiscal 2027 outlook hinges on several controllable levers rather than an assumed rebound in demand. Targeted pricing of about 4% across the portfolio is expected to yield roughly 2% net of elasticity, while supply chain savings are projected to reach $35 million or more. The recent $55 million acquisition of Black Kow is expected to add one to two points of sales growth, and the company expects about $275 million in free cash flow for the year.
Investors should monitor a few key risks. Management flagged roughly $100 million of commodity and freight inflation tied to geopolitical conflict, and retailer inventories ended the year up low single digits, creating a near-term sales headwind. First-half fiscal 2027 sales are expected to be roughly flat, meaning any upside is back-loaded into the year.
Balance-sheet progress also remains central to the story. The company aims to reach a leverage range of 3.0 to 3.5 times by fiscal 2029, with debt reduction remaining the top capital-allocation priority. Weather patterns, consumer discretionary spending, and the pace of e-commerce growth will all influence whether the company can convert its cost and pricing initiatives into the consistent, profitable growth management is targeting.
My Use of Tickeron Tools for Research
In my regular analysis, I rely on Tickeron’s AI Screener to scan for stocks showing similar technical patterns and fundamental trends. It helps me quickly filter ideas in the consumer staples space and cross-check signals against broader market conditions. The platform’s customizable filters for volatility, performance metrics, and AI-driven indicators have become a standard part of how I evaluate names like SMG before forming a view on valuation or entry points. This approach keeps my process efficient without replacing traditional due diligence.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
SMG in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026
SMG moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 23 of 28 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SMG as a result. In 54 of 77 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SMG just turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where SMG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 42 of 56 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The 10-day moving average for SMG crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Following a +5.27% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SMG advanced for three days, in 199 of 287 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 139 of 202 cases where SMG Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 69%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 13 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
SMG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 7 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: SMG's P/B Ratio (-18.744) is very low in comparison to the industry average of (-0.427). SMG's P/E Ratio (54.185) is considerably higher than the industry average of (8.568). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.685) is also within normal values, averaging (0.867). Dividend Yield (0.039) settles around the average of (0.130) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.929) is also within normal values, averaging (1.476).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SMG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 76 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SMG’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 79, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a manufacturer of consumer lawn and garden products
Industry ChemicalsAgricultural
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