GET DAILY SIGNALSSpear Alpha ETF (SPRX) Drops -22% Over 30 Days as AI Holdings De-Rate
Key Takeaways
- Spear Alpha ETF (SPRX) has declined roughly 22% over the past 30 days as high-multiple AI infrastructure and optical-networking holdings de-rated sharply.
- The fund is also down about 33% over the trailing quarter, unwinding a portion of its earlier 2026 outperformance.
- The drawdown was concentrated in optical communications, semiconductor equipment, and AI infrastructure names following the U.S. midterm elections.
- A data center-related policy proposal and a broader risk-off rotation pressured valuation multiples even as underlying earnings remained strong.
- Largest positions, including Astera Labs, Coherent, Lumentum, and Applied Optoelectronics, led the decline.
- Technology represents roughly 90% or more of assets, and the top ten holdings are highly concentrated, amplifying volatility.
Spear Alpha ETF (SPRX) Overview and Portfolio Exposure
Spear Alpha ETF is an actively managed, non-diversified thematic fund advised by Spear Advisors LLC. It seeks long-term capital growth by investing primarily in equities and American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) of companies the adviser believes will benefit from breakthrough innovation in industrial technology. In practice, this translates into heavy exposure to artificial intelligence hardware, optical networking and connectivity, semiconductor capital equipment, and emerging space technologies.
The fund holds roughly 30 securities with a concentrated top ten representing well over 60% of assets. As of recent reporting, its largest positions include Astera Labs, Cloudflare, Coherent, Lumentum, Arm Holdings, Lam Research, Applied Optoelectronics, SpaceX, Ciena, and Credo Technology. Information technology dominates the portfolio at roughly 90% or more of assets, with the United States accounting for nearly 90% of geographic exposure. The fund carries an expense ratio of 0.75% and has exhibited high portfolio turnover, reflecting its active management style. This concentrated, high-growth structure explains both the fund's powerful upside and its outsized drawdowns. I also checked the concentration levels using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the holdings compare within the sector.
Spear Alpha ETF (SPRX) Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the trailing 30 days, SPRX has fallen approximately 22%, declining from a level near $42.65 to the low-$30 range. The move was not gradual; much of the damage occurred in a sharp, high-volume slide spanning late October into early November. Over the trailing quarter, the decline is even steeper at roughly 33%, as the fund reversed from levels near $49 in mid-August. The path has been volatile rather than range-bound, with intermittent sharp rebounds punctuated by renewed selling pressure.
What Drove SPRX Price in the Last 30 Days
The primary catalyst was a broad de-rating of AI infrastructure and optical-networking equities following the U.S. midterm elections. A data center-related suspension proposal, still at the committee stage, heightened regulatory uncertainty, while a risk-off rotation hit the high-multiple names that dominate SPRX. Semiconductor valuations compressed sharply, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index trading at levels last seen in 2023.
This translated directly into losses across the fund's core holdings. Optical communications leaders such as Coherent, Lumentum, and Applied Optoelectronics, along with Credo Technology, Astera Labs, and Ciena, sold off sharply in November. Notably, the selling occurred despite strong fundamentals: Lumentum reported revenue growth of roughly 136% year over year, Astera Labs grew quarterly revenue about 154%, and Coherent posted robust data center and communications growth. Investor sentiment deteriorated as a widely followed fear-and-greed gauge fell below 40, underscoring the sentiment-driven nature of the decline.
What Drove SPRX Performance Over the Last Quarter
The trailing-quarter decline reflects a broader rotation out of high-valuation AI hardware and optical-networking themes after an exceptionally strong prior run. The fund returned more than 95% in the fiscal year ended June 30, 2026, outperforming major benchmarks by a wide margin, leaving valuations vulnerable to any shift in sentiment. Over recent months, rising policy and regulatory uncertainty around data center expansion, combined with profit-taking and concerns about stretched multiples, outweighed continued strength in underlying earnings. The fund's concentration in a narrow set of correlated AI-infrastructure names meant the entire portfolio moved together, magnifying the downside.
SPRX ETF Outlook: What Investors Should Watch Next
Going forward, several factors are likely to shape SPRX. Regulatory and policy developments around data center construction and AI infrastructure remain a key swing factor, given their direct impact on the fund's largest holdings. Hyperscaler capital expenditure plans and the pace of AI infrastructure buildout will continue to drive earnings visibility for optical, connectivity, and semiconductor equipment companies. The transition toward co-packaged optics and next-generation connectivity is a structural theme worth monitoring, as is the trajectory of interest rates and overall risk appetite for high-multiple growth equities. Finally, the fund's concentrated, high-turnover structure means volatility is likely to remain elevated. Investors should weigh these themes alongside their own objectives and risk tolerance. From what I see, keeping an eye on these catalysts through tools like Tickeron’s AI Trend Prediction Engine can help clarify the path ahead.
Using Tickeron’s AI Screener in My Research
In my research process, I frequently rely on Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly identify trends across AI-related names and compare them against broader market signals. It allows me to apply filters for volatility and performance in a way that manual analysis can’t match as efficiently, helping refine ideas in fast-moving sectors like optical networking.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
SPRX in downward trend: 10-day moving average moved below 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026
The 10-day moving average for SPRX crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 15 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 88%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 12, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SPRX as a result. In 68 of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 82%.
SPRX moved below its 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SPRX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 87%.
The Aroon Indicator for SPRX entered a downward trend on November 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where SPRX's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 24 of 27 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 89%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 49 of 55 cases where SPRX's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 89%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SPRX just turned positive on November 12, 2026. Looking at past instances where SPRX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 47 of 55 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
Following a +18.10% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SPRX advanced for three days, in 301 of 337 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 89%.
SPRX may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
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