GET DAILY SIGNALSStoneCo (STNE) Shares Drop -33% in 30 Days After Q3 Miss and Guidance Cut
Key Takeaways
- StoneCo shares fell roughly 33% over the last 30 days, declining from about $11.48 to around $7.72 at the latest close.
- The decline followed third-quarter 2026 results that missed earnings expectations and included a cut to 2026 guidance.
- Management also suspended its 2027 financial targets, citing Brazil's volatile interest-rate and macroeconomic environment.
- Deteriorating credit quality, including a rise in 90-day-plus non-performing loans, added pressure to the lending business.
- An early-October, election-driven rally toward the $12 level reversed as macro and credit concerns resurfaced.
- For additional context, explore StoneCo's Price Targets, Earnings, and Forecast pages for deeper analysis.
- You can also explore Trending AI Robots to see how automated strategies are positioned across the market.
StoneCo (STNE) Company Overview and Market Position
StoneCo Ltd. is a Brazil-based financial technology company that provides payments, digital banking, and credit solutions primarily to micro, small, and medium-sized businesses. Its cloud-based platform lets merchants accept in-store, online, and mobile payments, while also offering prepayment, banking, and lending products. The company also operates a software segment spanning point-of-sale, enterprise resource planning, and customer relationship management tools. Investors follow STNE for its exposure to Brazil's fast-growing digital payments market, its expanding banking and credit ecosystem, and its effort to become a primary financial services provider for entrepreneurs. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
StoneCo (STNE) Stock Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the last 30 days, StoneCo shares fell from roughly $11.48 to about $7.72, a decline of approximately 33%. The move was not linear: the stock surged in early October as a surprise first-round election outcome sparked a broad rally in Brazilian assets, pushing STNE toward the $12 mark, before giving back those gains and then accelerating lower following the company's quarterly report in mid-November.
The longer three-month trend tells a similar story of weakness. StoneCo was down roughly 19% over the trailing quarter as of mid-November, with the steepest losses concentrated in the final weeks of the period. The broader 12-month performance was even weaker, reflecting sustained pressure from Brazil's high interest-rate environment and growing investor concern about credit risk. From what I see in the data, this pattern aligns with broader sector pressures.
What Drove STNE Stock Price in the Last 30 Days
The sharpest catalyst was the company's third-quarter 2026 earnings report. StoneCo reported earnings per share that came in below analyst consensus, even as revenue landed roughly in line with expectations. More consequential than the modest miss was the company's revised outlook: management lowered its fiscal 2026 adjusted gross profit and adjusted earnings per share guidance and suspended its 2027 targets entirely, citing a materially tougher macro backdrop in Brazil.
Credit quality was central to investor concern. StoneCo's loan book continued to expand, but late-stage non-performing loans rose, and management said it was reassessing credit models to reflect higher inflation, lower consumption, and weaker economic growth. These factors drove additional provisioning expectations and pushed out the timeline for credit cost normalization. The combination of a guidance reset and mounting credit risk outweighed the stock's earlier election-driven optimism and triggered a sharp repricing. I’m watching this closely as the credit metrics evolve.
What Drove STNE Stock Performance Over the Last Quarter
Over the quarter, the dominant theme was a collision between StoneCo's aggressive growth in credit and a deteriorating Brazilian macro environment. Rising interest rates raised funding costs and credit risk across the country's fintech sector, while softening economic conditions increased pressure on small-business borrowers. StoneCo's rapid loan-book growth, once viewed as a key long-term driver, increasingly became a source of investor anxiety as delinquency metrics deteriorated.
The stock's brief early-quarter rally was tied to election optimism, but that move proved short-lived as fundamentals reasserted themselves. Guidance reductions, analyst downgrades, and a lack of near-term visibility into credit trends combined to push shares to multi-month lows by mid-November. In my view, the macro backdrop remains the key variable here.
STNE Stock Forecast Drivers: What Investors Should Watch Next
Investors will be watching StoneCo's next earnings release and any updated guidance for signs that credit cost trends are stabilizing. Key factors include the trajectory of Brazil's interest rates, inflation, and economic growth, all of which directly affect both funding costs and borrower repayment capacity. The company's ability to manage non-performing loans while sustaining payment volume and client retention will be closely scrutinized. Competitive pressure in Brazil's payments market and the pace of credit portfolio growth also remain important. Any update to the suspended 2027 targets, along with changes in analyst ratings and price targets, could influence sentiment in the months ahead. One thing that stands out is how quickly sentiment can shift with new macro data.
Exploring AI Tools for Market Context
In my own research process, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Trend Prediction Engine to cross-check price action and pattern signals against broader market moves. It provides a quick way to see how automated models are interpreting the same data points that drive decisions around names like STNE. This kind of tool helps frame the volatility without replacing fundamental analysis.
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Momentum Indicator for STNE turns negative, indicating new downward trend
STNE saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 94 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 78 of the 94 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for STNE turned negative on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 40 of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 80%.
STNE moved below its 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for STNE crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 81%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where STNE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where STNE's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 26 of 32 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 45 of 60 cases where STNE's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Following a +3.20% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where STNE advanced for three days, in 223 of 293 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
STNE may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 4 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.193) is normal, around the industry mean (16.275). P/E Ratio (0.558) is within average values for comparable stocks, (45.369). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.620) is also within normal values, averaging (3.696). Dividend Yield (1.348) settles around the average of (0.430) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.948) is also within normal values, averaging (103.897).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 83 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. STNE’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. STNE’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 92, placing this stock worse than average.
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a financial technology solutions provider
Industry ComputerCommunications
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