GET DAILY SIGNALSUnited States Antimony (UAMY) Drops -25.7% Over the Past 30 Days as Antimony Prices Pressure Margins
Key Takeaways
- United States Antimony (UAMY) shares fell about 25.7% over the past 30 days, sliding from a closing price of $4.26 on September 28, 2026, to roughly $3.17 in late October.
- The decline extends a broader downtrend, with the stock down approximately 39% over the last quarter.
- Sharply lower antimony prices compressed margins, cutting second-quarter revenue about 25% year over year and producing an operating loss.
- Management lowered full-year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $60 million to $75 million, down from a prior target of $125 million.
- A late-month rebound followed a new Nolan Creek technical report in Alaska and a Buy rating initiation from Texas Capital.
- Get more details on Price Targets, Earnings, and Forecast for UAMY.
- Explore Trending AI Robots to review AI-driven trading strategies for this and other tickers.
Company Background and Strategic Position
United States Antimony Corporation, or UAMY, produces and processes antimony, zeolite, and other critical minerals. The company positions itself as the only fully integrated antimony operation in the free world outside China and Russia, with a smelter at Thompson Falls and a flotation mill at Radersburg in Montana, plus facilities in Mexico and a zeolite plant in Idaho. Antimony’s role in ammunition, flame retardants, alloys, and military applications places the firm at the heart of U.S. supply-chain security efforts. I follow the name closely given its sole-source Defense Logistics Agency contract and involvement in domestic onshoring initiatives.
Recent Stock Performance: 30 Days and the Quarter
Over the past 30 days, UAMY shares declined approximately 25.7%, moving from a closing price of $4.26 on September 28, 2026, to about $3.17 in late October. The path was uneven, with the stock trending lower through mid-October and touching an intraday low near $2.64 before rebounding on October 27 after the Nolan Creek report.
The quarterly view looks similar. From a closing price of $5.21 on July 28, 2026, shares have fallen roughly 39%, extending a slide from levels above $7 seen in early July. The move reflects lower antimony pricing and adjusted growth expectations more than any single event. When reviewing comparable names, I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Drivers Behind the 30-Day Move
The main pressure came from falling antimony prices. Average realized selling prices dropped about 52% year over year in the second quarter, to $13.70 per pound from $28.32 per pound, as post-2024 spikes tied to China’s export restrictions eased and new supply entered the market. Management noted spot prices near $8.64 to $9 per pound.
That environment cut gross margin to roughly 7% in the second quarter from 27% a year earlier and led to an operating loss of about $7 million. The company responded by lowering full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $60 million to $75 million from $125 million, which weighed on sentiment. Toward the end of the period, coverage from Texas Capital with a Buy rating and $9.50 target on October 7, followed by the October 26 Nolan Creek technical report valuing resources at more than $314 million, supported a rebound on October 27.
Factors Behind the Quarterly Decline
The broader quarterly drop reflects a repricing of the critical-minerals sector. Antimony prices that rose after China’s September 2024 export controls have normalized as alternative supply increased, trimming the premium investors once assigned to domestic producers. At the same time, the company faced higher operating expenses from an expanded leadership team, infrastructure work, and share-based compensation, while revenue recognition on early DLA deliveries shifted into the third quarter. Lower prices, margin compression, and the guidance cut outweighed positives such as rising zeolite volumes and a balance sheet holding about $62 million in cash and U.S. Treasuries. From what I see, this combination explains most of the repricing.
Key Items to Watch Going Forward
Antimony pricing will remain the central variable, as realized prices directly affect revenue and margins. Progress on the Nolan Creek bulk-sample program, with roughly 1,000 tons of ore heading to the Radersburg mill for testing, also matters; first sales are targeted for late 2026 with a fuller ramp in 2027. Execution on the DLA contract, which had accumulated approximately $57.3 million in orders, and pending federal grant applications for antimony, tungsten, and hydrometallurgical projects represent additional potential catalysts. Broader economic conditions, Chinese export policy, and demand trends will continue to shape sentiment. I’m watching this closely as these elements unfold.
AI Tools in My Research Process
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
UAMY in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on October 12, 2026
UAMY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 31 of 36 cases where UAMY's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where UAMY's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 21 of 26 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 48 of 63 cases where UAMY's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on UAMY as a result. In 68 of 88 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for UAMY just turned positive on October 22, 2026. Looking at past instances where UAMY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 41 of 55 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Following a +6.13% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UAMY advanced for three days, in 206 of 259 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UAMY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
The Aroon Indicator for UAMY entered a downward trend on October 26, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. UAMY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 90, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 93 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. UAMY’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 98 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.737) is normal, around the industry mean (7.563). P/E Ratio (-25.462) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-0.058). UAMY's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (9.440) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.026). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.015) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (17.241) is also within normal values, averaging (283.864).
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a producer of antimony products
Industry OtherMetalsMinerals
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