United States Antimony Corporation (UAMY) is one of the most volatile small-cap names in the critical-minerals trade. After a sharp rally on the antimony supply shock, the stock has collapsed toward its 52-week low, leaving a wide gap between its market price and the price targets still on analysts' books.
Across Yahoo Finance, S&P Global, and Investing.com, four analysts are tracked with an average 12-month stock price target of approximately $10.44, producing the $10.50 central target used here. The range is unusually wide, from about $9.00 to $14.00, reflecting genuine disagreement over how quickly antimony prices and revenue will recover.
Recent, attributable actions include Texas Capital Securities analyst Matthew Key initiating coverage with a Buy rating and a $9.50 target in October 2026, citing the Thompson Falls smelter and critical-mineral onshoring. H.C. Wainwright's Heiko Ihle cut his target to $9.25 from $11.75 in August 2026, while Alliance Global Partners maintained a higher $14.00 target in May 2026. The dispersion shows analysts broadly agree on the company's strategic value but differ sharply on near-term pricing and dilution.
At roughly $3.12 per share, UAMY sits near the bottom of its 52-week range of about $2.64 to $13.71. Reaching $10.50 would require a gain of about 235%—a very large move by any standard. The company's trailing-twelve-month revenue is about $36 million, with negative earnings per share (EPS) and no meaningful P/E (price-to-earnings) multiple, so the stock trades largely on the outlook for antimony prices and government contracts rather than current profitability.
The bull case rests on UAMY's strategic position. Its Thompson Falls, Montana facility is the only operational antimony smelter in the United States, and the company holds a $245 million sole-source contract with the Defense Logistics Agency to supply antimony for the National Defense Stockpile, plus roughly $27 million in Defense Production Act grants. A rebound in antimony prices, further onshoring policy support, and conversion of the government backlog into revenue could dramatically re-rate the shares. The company also holds more cash than debt and recently authorized a $100 million buyback.
The principal obstacle is commodity pricing. Second-quarter 2026 revenue fell about 25% year over year to $7.9 million, which management attributed to a significant decline in antimony prices, and full-year revenue guidance was cut to a range of $60 million to $75 million. Persistent low antimony prices, shareholder dilution from capital raises, execution risk in ramping mining and processing, and analyst estimates that remain elevated relative to current market conditions all pose risks. Weiss Ratings has also maintained a Sell-style rating, underscoring that the view is not unanimous.
The shares recently set a fresh 52-week low and trade below both the 50-day moving average near $5 and the 200-day moving average near $7, indicating a downtrend. Any recovery would first need to reclaim those levels. The prior trading range in the $11 to $14 area, where many analyst targets sit, represents a major overhead resistance level, while the $2.64 to $3.00 zone is the nearest meaningful support level.
Analyst price targets typically reflect a roughly 12-month research horizon. Investors should watch antimony spot prices, quarterly revenue and guidance updates, progress on the DLA contract and Defense Production Act funding, any new equity issuance, and analyst target revisions—which have been moving downward as commodity prices weaken. Changes in U.S. critical-minerals policy are also pivotal.
Tickeron's AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals use artificial intelligence to continuously monitor thousands of stocks and ETFs, generating Buy, Sell, or Hold signals based on changing market conditions, technical behavior, and AI-driven analysis. Traders can use the tool to discover opportunities, monitor existing positions, and spot shifting trends more efficiently than manual screening allows. For a volatile name like UAMY, automated signal monitoring can help flag turning points as sentiment and momentum shift.
The $10.50 central target is the average of current analyst price targets, and it sits more than 230% above the latest price—reflecting targets that were set when antimony prices and the share price were far higher. A move to that level would require a sustained recovery in antimony pricing and successful execution of government contracts. The wide $9.00-to-$14.00 analyst range and recent downward revisions signal genuine uncertainty. This is a high-risk, high-reward situation where commodity prices, guidance, and financing decisions matter more than any single number.
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A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UAMY has been closely correlated with USAR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 68% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if UAMY jumps, then USAR could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To UAMY | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAMY | 100% | -3.69% | ||
| USAR - UAMY | 68% Closely correlated | -7.95% | ||
| MP - UAMY | 68% Closely correlated | -3.08% | ||
| LAC - UAMY | 67% Closely correlated | -3.45% | ||
| NB - UAMY | 64% Loosely correlated | -6.74% | ||
| CRML - UAMY | 63% Loosely correlated | -5.31% | ||
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| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To UAMY | 1D Price Change % |
|---|---|---|
| UAMY | 100% | -3.69% |
| UAMY (5 stocks) | 71% Closely correlated | -1.57% |
| Non Energy Minerals (154 stocks) | 48% Loosely correlated | -1.16% |