GET DAILY SIGNALSUSLM's $131 Target: Gauging the +17.8% Upside Potential
Key Takeaways
- The $131 objective reflects a single analyst's current price target rather than a broad Wall Street consensus, because USLM is very thinly covered.
- At a latest verified price near $111.18, the stock would need to gain roughly 17.8% to reach $131 — a substantial move.
- The target sits below the 52-week high of $141.44 and well above the 52-week low of $96.27, framing the stock's recent trading range.
- Supporting the case: a fortress balance sheet, record 2025 results, and new Texas kiln capacity now coming online.
- Working against it: third-quarter 2026 results missed estimates, gross margin narrowed, and recent insider selling has pressured sentiment.
- For more context on this ticker's Major News, Today's Price Move, Forecast, and Earnings, explore these additional pages.
- Investors can also explore Trending AI Robots for automated, AI-driven market analysis.
Understanding the Lone Analyst's $131 Target
United States Lime & Minerals, Inc. (NASDAQ: USLM) is a Dallas-based producer of lime and limestone products serving construction, steel, environmental, and other industrial customers, with additional oil and gas royalty interests in Texas. It is also one of the least-covered names on the Nasdaq, which shapes how its price target should be read.
Effectively a single analyst, Vitaly Kononov of Freedom Broker (Freedom Capital Markets), maintains an active price target on the stock. On November 2, 2026, the firm trimmed its target to $131 from $132 while keeping a Buy rating, citing third-quarter margin pressure. Earlier in 2026, the same firm raised its target to $138 from $125 after record full-year 2025 results. Because there is no genuine multi-analyst consensus, the $131 figure is best understood as one analyst's objective rather than an aggregate; the widely quoted "average target" of $131 simply restates this single number. Weiss Ratings separately upgraded the stock to a Buy (B-) rating in October 2026, but does not publish a share-price target. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Current Levels and the Road to $131
As of the November 13, 2026 close, USLM traded near $111.18, giving it a market capitalization of roughly $3.3 billion and a P/E (price-to-earnings) ratio in the low-to-mid 20s on trailing earnings per share of about $4.64. Reaching $131 would require a gain of approximately 17.8%, a substantial move that would carry the stock back toward the upper half of its 52-week range of $96.27 to $141.44.
The path would likely depend on whether margins stabilize. Third-quarter 2026 revenue rose 4.1% year over year to $106.2 million, but EPS (earnings per share) fell 2.2% to $1.32, missing the $1.48 consensus, and gross margin narrowed 3.4 percentage points to 47.8% on higher fuel and transportation costs plus temporary inefficiencies integrating the new Texas kiln. A recovery in profitability as that kiln reaches full production is central to the target's achievability.
Factors Supporting the Target
- Balance sheet strength. The company holds about $439 million in cash and equivalents with more cash than debt, providing flexibility during the capacity expansion.
- Capacity growth. A roughly $65 million vertical kiln investment at its Texas Lime operation began intermittent quicklime production in Q3 2026, with final commissioning expected in Q4, positioning the company for volume growth into 2027.
- Pricing power and market position. USLM commands roughly 31% domestic market share and reached about 80% peak utilization in 2025, with 2025 revenue up 17.3% to $372.7 million on strong demand from construction, environmental, and steel customers.
- Dividend continuity. The company has paid dividends for 13 consecutive years, reflecting consistent cash generation.
Risks That Could Hold the Stock Back
- Margin compression. Rising diesel, fuel, and transportation costs and kiln-integration inefficiencies have already squeezed gross margin, and persistent cost inflation could delay earnings recovery.
- Mixed end-market demand. Steel demand has supported volumes, but construction demand has been softer and oil and gas services and roof-shingle customers showed weaker demand in recent periods.
- Insider selling. The CEO sold 42,000 shares near $118.59, reducing his direct stake materially, which has contributed to negative sentiment even as a major shareholder added shares near $110.
- Valuation sensitivity. With the stock at a premium P/E relative to some peers, any earnings disappointment can trigger multiple compression, as seen in the recent pullback.
Technical Picture
The stock's 52-week high of $141.44 (reached in April 2026) remains a notable resistance zone above the $131 target, while the 52-week low of $96.27 marks the lower bound of the range. More recently, shares have broken below the 200-day moving average near $115 and a support area around $120, with the 50-day moving average near $113 providing a near-term reference point. A sustained move back above $120 would be a constructive first step toward the $131 objective. From what I see, the technical setup aligns with the fundamental drivers I mentioned earlier.
What to Watch Going Forward
Analyst price targets generally reflect a research horizon of roughly 12 months, though the thin coverage makes this less definitive for USLM. Investors should watch the completion and ramp-up of the Texas kiln, quarterly gross margin trends, fuel and transportation costs, and any further insider transactions. Upcoming earnings reports and any analyst revisions will be important signals for whether the margin recovery underpinning the $131 target materializes. I’m watching this closely as the kiln ramps.
Final Assessment
The $131 figure is a single analyst's price target rather than a true consensus, reflecting the unusually thin coverage of USLM. Reaching it would require a substantial gain of about 17.8% from recent levels, a move that appears achievable only if gross margins stabilize as the new Texas kiln ramps toward full production and construction demand firms. The balance sheet and capacity story support the case, while margin pressure, mixed end markets, and insider selling represent the principal obstacles. Investors should monitor kiln commissioning, margin trends, and any analyst or insider activity before drawing conclusions — but there are no guarantees that the target will be reached.
Using Tickeron’s AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals in My Process
Tickeron's AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals use artificial intelligence to continuously monitor thousands of stocks and ETFs, generating Buy, Sell, or Hold signals based on changing market conditions, technical behavior, and AI-driven analysis. I find these signals helpful when tracking names like USLM, as they offer a systematic way to stay ahead of evolving price action without replacing my own fundamental review.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
USLM's RSI Indicator recovers from overbought zone
The 10-day RSI Oscillator for USLM moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. Traders may want to look at selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 39 instances where the indicator moved out of the overbought zone. In 25 of the 39 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move down at 64%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 25 of 60 cases where USLM's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 42%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 13, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on USLM as a result. In 53 of 96 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 55%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for USLM turned negative on November 13, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 53 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 33 of the 53 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 62%.
USLM moved below its 50-day moving average on November 13, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where USLM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
USLM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The 10-day moving average for USLM crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Following a +3.69% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where USLM advanced for three days, in 248 of 336 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 239 of 327 cases where USLM Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 73%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 72, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. USLM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 79 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: USLM's P/B Ratio (4.870) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.567). P/E Ratio (25.181) is within average values for comparable stocks, (21.155). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.750) is also within normal values, averaging (0.876). Dividend Yield (0.002) settles around the average of (0.049) among similar stocks. USLM's P/S Ratio (8.718) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (2.242).
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General Information
a company which engages in the manufacture and sale of lime and limestone products
Industry ConstructionMaterials
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