GET DAILY SIGNALSValero Energy (VLO) Delivers Robust Q3 2026 Results on Wide Refining Margins
Key Takeaways
- Valero Energy reported third-quarter 2026 net income of $6.8 billion, or $23.89 per diluted share, up sharply from $1.1 billion, or $3.53 per share, a year earlier.
- Adjusted earnings of $23.90 per share exceeded consensus estimates, and revenue of $46.1 billion rose 43.3% year over year.
- Refining operating income surged to $8.8 billion, compared with $1.6 billion in the prior-year quarter, driven by much stronger fuel margins.
- Renewable Diesel swung to an operating profit of $353 million, while Ethanol delivered record production and higher margins.
- Operating cash flow reached $6.9 billion, supporting a shareholder payout ratio of 52% and a cash balance of $9.8 billion.
Why the Quarter Matters
Valero Energy's third-quarter report stands out because refining profits depend heavily on the gap between crude costs and finished fuel prices, known as the crack spread. Global supply disruptions, higher freight rates, and geopolitical factors have widened those spreads over the past year, creating favorable conditions for U.S. refiners. With its sizable Gulf Coast presence and access to lower-cost crude, Valero Energy (VLO) offers a useful window into the broader industry and cash-return trends in energy.
The Quarter in Detail
For the three months ended September 30, 2026, the company posted net income attributable to stockholders of $6.8 billion, or $23.89 per diluted share, versus $1.1 billion, or $3.53 per share, in the same quarter of 2025. Adjusted earnings per share reached $23.90, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $21.28.
Revenue rose to $46.1 billion, a 43.3% increase from $32.17 billion a year earlier and above expectations. The Refining segment produced operating income of $8.8 billion, up from $1.6 billion, as refining margin per barrel of throughput climbed to $39.24 from $13.14. Throughput averaged about 2.97 million barrels per day.
Renewable Diesel turned in operating income of $353 million after a $28 million loss last year. Ethanol earned $272 million, up from $183 million, on record production of 4.8 million gallons per day. Operating cash flow totaled $6.9 billion.
I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Market Reaction and Investor View
The results reinforced positive sentiment toward refiners. Shares of Valero Energy (VLO) have risen roughly 168% since the start of 2026, well ahead of the broader market. Earnings and revenue beats, along with comments that fuel margins could stay elevated, supported the constructive tone. Management noted that commodity volatility is “probably not behind us,” which explains the larger cash position held to maintain flexibility. That balance of strong profitability and a cautious liquidity stance shaped how investors read the release.
What to Watch Going Forward
Fourth-quarter guidance provides clear markers. Refining throughput should stay near current levels, with Gulf Coast volumes expected between 1.855 million and 1.905 million barrels per day. Cash operating expenses are projected near $4.85 per barrel, and Renewable Diesel sales volumes are forecast around 325 million gallons.
Key variables include continued strength in VLCC freight rates, which have helped widen crude discounts for Gulf Coast refiners, and overall demand trends. Gasoline demand has held up, though higher prices could eventually weigh on volumes. The company continues to hold cash above its long-term $4 billion to $5 billion target, leaving room for additional shareholder returns if conditions shift. Capital spending guidance for 2026 remains around $2 billion.
Tools That Help with Energy Analysis
When reviewing names in the refining sector, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener. It allows quick filtering by technical patterns, fundamentals, and performance metrics so I can compare opportunities without hours of manual work. For investors following energy names like Valero, the tool helps surface comparable ideas and momentum shifts across the group.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
VLO in downward trend: 10-day moving average moved below 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026
The 10-day moving average for VLO crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on VLO as a result. In 49 of 78 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for VLO turned negative on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 28 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 62%.
VLO moved below its 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where VLO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where VLO's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 15 of 16 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 13 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +0.79% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where VLO advanced for three days, in 287 of 353 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
VLO may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 279 of 338 cases where VLO Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 83%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 43, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. VLO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.990) is normal, around the industry mean (4.566). P/E Ratio (14.441) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.639). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.918) is also within normal values, averaging (1.079). Dividend Yield (0.014) settles around the average of (0.067) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.869) is also within normal values, averaging (0.549).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Advertisement
General Information
a company that engages in manufacturing and marketing of transportation fuels, other petrochemical products and power
Industry OilRefiningMarketing
Advertisement