GET DAILY SIGNALSValvoline (VVV) Climbs +12.4% in 30 Days After Hitting Recent Lows
Key Takeaways
- Valvoline (VVV) shares have risen roughly +12.4% over the last 30 days, rebounding from a late-September low near $26 to about $34.37.
- The rebound follows a sharp drawdown; the stock remains down approximately 11% over the trailing three-month period from its early-August level near $39.
- The recovery has been supported by pricing actions aimed at offsetting elevated base-oil and lubricant costs, a 40-year retail service milestone, and a $500 million increase in the share repurchase authorization.
- Analysts have largely maintained Buy and Outperform ratings even as several firms lowered price targets on near-term margin concerns; fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 results are scheduled for November 19.
- For additional context on the company, explore its Price Targets, Earnings, and Forecast pages.
- Explore Trending AI Robots to see how AI-driven trading systems are approaching stocks like VVV.
Valvoline’s Business Model and Market Position
Valvoline Inc. (VVV) focuses on preventive automotive maintenance. Based in Lexington, Kentucky, the company runs and franchises roughly 2,500 service centers in the United States and Canada under the Valvoline Instant Oil Change and Great Canadian Oil Change brands, handling more than 30 million services each year. Services range from quick stay-in-your-car oil changes to battery, bulb, wiper, and tire work.
After selling its Global Products business, VVV now operates purely as a retail services provider. Revenue comes from company-owned stores, non-oil-change services, and franchise fees. I find the recurring demand, aging vehicle fleet, store expansion plans, and capital-light franchise approach worth watching closely.
Recent Stock Price Moves: 30 Days Compared to the Quarter
Over the past 30 days, VVV advanced about +12.4%, climbing from a closing price near $30.58 in early October to roughly $34.37 in early November. That marked a solid recovery after the stock hit a 52-week low near $26 in late September.
The shorter-term gain sits inside a larger pullback. Over the trailing three months, the stock is still down about 11%, dropping from roughly $38.79 in early August. This longer weakness reflects how the market has been repricing the shares even after decent operating results, as investors factored in higher input costs and margin pressure.
Factors Behind the 30-Day Rebound
The recent recovery came from a mix of valuation reset and company-specific news. After reaching that 52-week low, renewed buying interest appeared as management showed pricing power to handle sharply higher base-oil and finished-lubricant costs. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
In mid-October, Valvoline marked 10 years as a public company and 40 years in retail service while raising its share repurchase authorization to $500 million. Analysts kept supportive ratings overall—Buy, Outperform, or Overweight—even though TD Cowen, Wells Fargo, RBC Capital, and Barclays trimmed price targets. Sentiment also benefited from progress on the Breeze Autocare acquisition, which management said is running ahead of schedule.
Drivers of the Three-Month Decline
The broader three-month drop stemmed more from profitability worries than from demand issues. In fiscal third-quarter results released in early August, Valvoline reported revenue of about $544.6 million, up 24% year over year, and adjusted earnings per share of $0.57, beating consensus. System-wide sales rose 19% and same-store sales rose 8%.
Still, the shares fell after management warned that elevated base-oil costs from supply-chain issues would squeeze margins and guided for meaningful gross-margin pressure in the fiscal fourth quarter. A string of analyst price-target cuts through September and October, plus wider market caution, pushed the stock lower into late September before the recent rebound began.
What to Watch in the Coming Quarters
Investors will likely focus on Valvoline’s fiscal fourth-quarter and full-year results due November 19. Key items include the pace of same-store sales growth, how gross margins develop amid still-high lubricant and base-oil costs, and any new guidance for the next fiscal year.
Other points to monitor are the ongoing integration of the Breeze Autocare network, progress on store-count and same-store sales goals, the timing of repurchases under the larger authorization, and the balance between pricing moves and customer traffic. Broader economic conditions, consumer spending on maintenance, and commodity trends will also matter.
Using Tickeron’s AI Trading Bots in My Research
I regularly turn to Tickeron’s AI Trading Bots when evaluating names like VVV. The platform lets me review how different algorithmic strategies interpret price action, volatility, and momentum across hundreds of tickers. It serves as a helpful complement to traditional analysis without replacing it. In my view, seeing how these systems approach a stock adds another layer of perspective before making decisions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
VVV in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026
VVV moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 26 of 38 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on September 29, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on VVV as a result. In 52 of 79 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
The 10-day moving average for VVV crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 13 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Following a +4.74% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where VVV advanced for three days, in 177 of 292 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 82 of 192 cases where VVV Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 43%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for VVV moved out of overbought territory on November 03, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 37 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 24 of the 37 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 65%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where VVV declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
VVV broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. VVV’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 87 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: VVV's P/B Ratio (10.332) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.513). P/E Ratio (42.175) is within average values for comparable stocks, (12.280). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.104) is also within normal values, averaging (0.695). Dividend Yield (0.015) settles around the average of (0.010) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.772) is also within normal values, averaging (0.919).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. VVV’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock worse than average.
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
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General Information
a distributer of premium-branded automotive, commercial and industrial lubricants and automotive chemicals
Industry AutomotiveAftermarket
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