GET DAILY SIGNALSVelo3D (VELO) Q3 2026 Earnings Preview: Monitoring Margin Progress and EBITDA Path
Key Takeaways
- Velo3D (VELO) is set to release its third quarter 2026 results after the U.S. market close on November 10, 2026, followed by a conference call at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time.
- The company has provided preliminary Q3 2026 revenue guidance of roughly $19.5 million to $20.5 million, pointing to year-over-year growth of about 43% to 51%.
- Wall Street consensus estimates call for revenue near $19.3 million and a net loss of approximately $0.26 per share, versus $13.64 million in revenue and a larger loss in the prior-year period.
- Investors will focus on gross margin trends and the company’s goal of achieving positive EBITDA in the second half of 2026.
- Management’s raised full-year 2026 revenue outlook of $65 million to $75 million, along with robust aerospace and defense demand, remain key themes ahead of the report.
Earnings Context and Its Significance
Velo3D (VELO), a provider of metal additive manufacturing technology, continues to navigate a notable turnaround. Following extended periods of losses, the firm has moved toward a more recurring, service-oriented approach via its Rapid Production Solutions offering, while demand from aerospace, defense, space, and energy sectors has picked up. Its most recent quarter delivered revenue growth exceeding 52% year over year and returned gross margins to positive territory. The upcoming release will indicate whether that progress held and whether commitments on margins and the route to positive EBITDA can be sustained. For investors, this print serves as an important checkpoint on execution, demand visibility, and funding for capacity expansion.
Earnings Expectations
Analysts anticipate Velo3D (VELO) will report revenue close to $19.3 million and a net loss of about $0.26 per share for the third quarter of 2026, which ended September 30. This compares with $13.64 million in revenue and a loss of roughly $0.54 per share from the same quarter last year. The company already narrowed expectations on October 15, 2026, with preliminary revenue in the $19.5 million to $20.5 million range, reflecting 43% to 51% year-over-year growth and slightly above consensus. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Attention will center on gross margin, which management has targeted above 30% for the second half of 2026, along with GAAP operating expenses. The prior quarter’s $20.7 million revenue beat and 21.5% gross margin lifted the stock in after-hours trading. The updated full-year revenue guidance of $65 million to $75 million and $31 million backlog as of June 30, 2026, offer further context on potential growth sustainability.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Heading into the report, sentiment appears cautiously optimistic yet volatile. Velo3D (VELO) shares have reacted sharply to earnings, including a jump of more than 17% in after-hours trading after the second-quarter results. The mid-October preliminary revenue update eased some top-line uncertainty, moving focus toward profitability metrics and demand durability. Risks include ongoing net losses, elevated capital spending for the new Livermore production campus, and capacity constraints that management has noted are limiting near-term growth. A shortfall on gross margin or signs of softening bookings could weigh on the stock, while confirmation of the guided margin trajectory might strengthen the turnaround case.
Forward Outlook and Factors to Watch
Following the release, commentary on the remainder of 2026 and into 2027 will be closely followed. With guidance for gross margins above 30% and positive EBITDA in the second half of 2026, updates on cost controls and operational efficiency will carry as much weight as revenue. Capacity remains central, as the Livermore campus is slated to begin operations in the fourth quarter of 2026 and ultimately triple manufacturing capacity, with a target of roughly 100 machines by mid-2028. Timing, costs of the ramp, and planned capital expenditures of $40 million to $50 million are important variables. Demand signals matter as well, with the $31 million backlog as of June 30, 2026, and management noting that defense, space, and energy demand exceeds current output. Scaling the RPS recurring-revenue model should support greater predictability and margins over time, while balance sheet updates will clarify runway for growth initiatives.
Exploring AI Tools for Stock Analysis
In my own review of Velo3D (VELO) and similar names, I’ve found Tickeron’s AI Screener helpful for quickly filtering ideas based on technical patterns, fundamentals, and industry trends. It allows users to customize scans across thousands of stocks and ETFs, surfacing potential opportunities more efficiently than manual methods. This kind of tool can provide additional context when comparing peers and evaluating broader market signals ahead of events like earnings.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
VELO in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026
VELO may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 30 of 35 cases where VELO's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where VELO's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 28 of 35 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 49 of 63 cases where VELO's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for VELO just turned positive on November 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where VELO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 35 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
Following a +28.72% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where VELO advanced for three days, in 203 of 242 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where VELO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
The Aroon Indicator for VELO entered a downward trend on November 10, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 31 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.224) is normal, around the industry mean (-6.197). P/E Ratio (-2.514) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-3.670). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (23.994). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.012) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.039) is also within normal values, averaging (51.774).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 65 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. VELO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. VELO’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 91, placing this stock worse than average.
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