GET DAILY SIGNALSViper Energy (VNOM) Reports Q3 2026 Revenue Surge of +58.1% and Beats Estimates
Key Takeaways
- Viper Energy reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $661 million, up 58.1% year over year and above analysts' consensus estimate of about $635.7 million.
- GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) earnings came in at $0.72 per share, beating the consensus estimate of $0.69 by roughly $0.03.
- Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) reached $596 million, a 90.2% margin that also topped expectations.
- The company again raised its full-year 2026 oil production guidance to 67,500 barrels of oil per day (bo/d) at the midpoint.
- Viper declared a base cash dividend of $0.50 per share and repurchased about 2.1 million shares for roughly $90 million during the quarter.
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Why These Results Stand Out
Viper Energy, a subsidiary of Diamondback Energy (FANG), holds mineral and royalty interests mainly in the Permian Basin. Its royalty-focused approach keeps capital spending low and supports strong free cash flow, so each report offers a clear window into Permian activity, commodity prices, and returns to shareholders.
The third-quarter numbers carried added significance as the first full period under the updated return-of-capital framework with a higher base dividend. The report also came after several acquisitions and asset deals in 2026. I checked how the stock stacks up using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see where it fits among energy royalty peers.
The Quarter in Detail
Revenue reached $661 million, marking a 58.1% rise from the same quarter last year and exceeding the consensus of roughly $635.7 million. GAAP earnings per share landed at $0.72, just above the $0.69 estimate. Adjusted EBITDA hit $596 million for a 90.2% margin, ahead of the approximately $578 million consensus. Free cash flow came in at $520 million, a notable improvement from the negative $816 million recorded a year earlier. Oil production increased 23.2% year over year, helped by ongoing development from Diamondback and other operators on the royalty acreage.
Management raised the full-year 2026 production midpoint to 67,500 bo/d, with fourth-quarter net production guided between 70,000 and 71,000 bo/d (141,500 to 143,500 boe/d).
Market Response
Shares traded near $45.72 right after the release, essentially flat even with the beats. The limited move suggests much of the strong Permian growth and cash flow had already been anticipated, shifting attention to guidance and the durability of returns. The royalty model continues to limit exposure to drilling costs, and the commitment to a higher base dividend plus buybacks has supported sentiment. The main uncertainty remains whether oil and natural gas prices stay supportive enough to sustain the current path into 2027.
Looking Ahead
Attention now turns to whether production targets are met and pending acquisitions close on schedule. The updated outlook factors in the 2026 Drop Down, the McElroy Ranch deal that closed in September, and the Buckhorn acquisition still expected in the fourth quarter. Integration success will help maintain momentum.
Commodity prices remain the key external driver, with revenue and cash flow closely linked to WTI crude and natural gas levels. Management has indicated the dividend framework can hold up at lower prices. On costs, unit items such as depreciation, depletion, amortization, cash G&A, and production taxes merit watching as activity changes across the basin. Rig counts and well turn-to-production rates on the acreage will also give early signals for near-term volumes and the 2027 trajectory.
Using AI Tools to Stay Informed
I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener when reviewing names like this one. It lets me filter across technical patterns, fundamentals, and industry signals in one place, which helps put quarterly results into broader context without spending hours on manual screens. The tool surfaces comparable ideas quickly and has become a regular part of my workflow for energy royalty names.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
VNOM sees its 50-day moving average cross bullishly above its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for VNOM moved above the 200-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 06, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on VNOM as a result. In 65 of 98 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for VNOM just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where VNOM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 38 of 52 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
VNOM moved above its 50-day moving average on October 09, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for VNOM crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
Following a +2.63% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where VNOM advanced for three days, in 241 of 346 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 170 of 240 cases where VNOM Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 71%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for VNOM moved out of overbought territory on November 02, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 38 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 26 of the 38 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 68%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 17 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where VNOM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
VNOM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 2 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.765) is normal, around the industry mean (160.809). VNOM's P/E Ratio (-457.200) is considerably lower than the industry average of (7.393). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.971) is also within normal values, averaging (13.660). Dividend Yield (0.059) settles around the average of (149858533376.000) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.676) is also within normal values, averaging (4.657).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 27 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 42, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. VNOM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
a company that explores petroleum and gas
Industry OilGasPipelines
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