GET DAILY SIGNALSWayfair (W) Delivers Strong Q3 Results with +9.7% Revenue Growth
Key Takeaways
- Wayfair reported third-quarter 2026 net revenue of $3.42 billion, up 9.7% year over year, beating consensus estimates of roughly $3.38 billion.
- Non-GAAP adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) rose to $0.93 from $0.70 a year earlier, topping analyst expectations of about $0.79.
- U.S. net revenue climbed 11.4% to $3.04 billion, marking Wayfair's fastest growth pace since the early pandemic period.
- Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) reached $236 million, a 6.9% margin and the company's best third-quarter result since 2020.
- Wayfair swung to net income of $62 million, or $0.45 per diluted share, from a net loss of $99 million a year ago.
- For more context on Wayfair, visit its Major News, Today's Price Move, Price Targets, and Forecast pages.
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Why These Results Stand Out
Wayfair's third-quarter numbers landed at an important time for the online home goods retailer. After periods of cost discipline and a major technology replatforming, the company has been pointing to the potential for profitable growth even as the broader housing and home goods environment stays soft. This quarter served as a meaningful check on that outlook, and the results aligned well. U.S. revenue growth above 11% while the category was essentially flat points to real market share gains. For investors, the update is notable because it shows profitability progress feeding into stronger revenue trends, which supports the view that margin expansion could prove durable rather than one-off.
The Quarter in Detail
Wayfair posted total net revenue of $3.42 billion for the third quarter ended September 30, 2026, up 9.7% from $3.12 billion a year earlier and modestly above consensus near $3.38 billion. U.S. net revenue increased 11.4% to $3.04 billion, while international revenue fell 2.3% to $380 million. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Non-GAAP adjusted diluted EPS reached $0.93, up from $0.70 the prior year and ahead of the roughly $0.79 consensus. On a GAAP basis, the company recorded $0.45 per diluted share, reversing from a loss of $0.76 per share last year, with net income of $62 million versus a $99 million net loss previously. Adjusted EBITDA rose to $236 million for a 6.9% margin, which management noted as its strongest third-quarter showing since 2020. Other metrics were positive as well: active customers grew 4.7% to 22.2 million, orders delivered increased 12.2% to 11.0 million, and free cash flow improved to $136 million from $93 million. Average order value eased to $311 from $317. The company guided to high single-digit revenue growth for the fourth quarter.
Market Response
Shares of Wayfair rose after the release, gaining roughly 11% as investors focused on the combination of double-digit U.S. growth and better-than-expected profitability. The reaction highlighted the accelerating revenue path, expanding customer base, and evidence that margin gains are holding even as the company invests for growth. Management’s tone around structural share gains added to the positive sentiment. That said, the drop in international revenue and softer average order value remind investors that not every figure moved in the same direction, leaving some attention on whether the momentum can hold across segments.
What Comes Next
Going forward, attention will likely center on whether Wayfair can carry its U.S. growth into the fourth quarter and 2026. The high single-digit revenue guidance for Q4 signals continued confidence in share gains, though order growth and customer additions will be important to track. Profitability will remain a key focus, with the 6.9% adjusted EBITDA margin representing the best third-quarter efficiency since 2020. Watching gross margin stability and advertising discipline will help assess how lasting these improvements are. Macro conditions matter too, given the still-challenged housing market. Any easing in mortgage rates or improvement in home sales could support demand further, while tariffs and consumer trends introduce variables. The international segment, which saw revenue decline, will also be watched for signs of stabilization.
Using Tickeron AI Tools in My Research
I regularly turn to Tickeron’s AI tools when reviewing earnings and sector trends because they help surface comparable setups quickly. In this case, the AI Trend Prediction Engine provided useful context on momentum signals, while the AI Pattern Search Engine highlighted relevant technical formations. These resources allow me to cross-check data points and identify potential follow-through ideas without spending hours on manual work.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
Momentum Indicator for W turns negative, indicating new downward trend
W saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on November 03, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 81 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 71 of the 81 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 88%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for W moved out of overbought territory on October 30, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 38 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 31 of the 38 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 82%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 51 of 59 cases where W's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 86%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for W turned negative on November 03, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 35 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 76%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where W declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 84%.
W broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
W moved above its 50-day moving average on September 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +6.35% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where W advanced for three days, in 226 of 282 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 191 of 230 cases where W Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 83%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. W’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 89 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (-5.469) is normal, around the industry mean (21.510). W's P/E Ratio (-44.887) is considerably lower than the industry average of (9.793). W's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (23.500) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.774). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.032) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.040) is also within normal values, averaging (1.328).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. W’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 92, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
an online home furnishing store
Industry InternetRetail
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