Why Is Amgen Inc. (AMGN) Stock Down -7.28% Today?
Key Takeaways
- AMGN shares fell roughly 7.28% (about $31.81) to approximately $405.42 in Tuesday trading.
- The primary catalyst was a failed late-stage trial from rival Novartis, which rattled confidence in the entire Lp(a)-lowering drug class, including Amgen's experimental olpasiran.
- A valuation-driven downgrade from BMO Capital Markets to Market Perform added to the selling pressure.
- Broader market weakness, including a lower Dow and surging oil prices on U.S.–Iran tensions, compounded the decline.
- Traders are now focused on results from Amgen's own OCEAN(a)-Outcomes study as the next major catalyst.
Opening Summary
Amgen Inc. (AMGN), the Thousand Oaks, California-based biotechnology giant behind blockbuster therapies such as Repatha, Prolia, and Enbrel, saw its shares tumble in Tuesday's session. The stock fell about 7.28%, or $31.81, to roughly $405.42, down from a prior closing price of $437.23. The move was driven primarily by a failed late-stage cardiovascular trial from rival Novartis that cast a shadow over Amgen's own experimental cholesterol drug, compounded by a valuation-driven analyst downgrade and a softer overall market.
Novartis Trial Failure Hits the Lp(a) Drug Class
The dominant catalyst behind the selloff was Novartis' disclosure that pelacarsen, its experimental treatment designed to sharply lower lipoprotein(a), or Lp(a), failed to meet its primary endpoint in the pivotal Lp(a)HORIZON Phase 3 trial. Despite successfully reducing Lp(a) levels in treated patients, the drug did not lower the risk of cardiovascular death, heart attack, or stroke compared with placebo.
The result matters enormously for Amgen because the company is developing olpasiran, an investigational siRNA therapy designed to suppress Lp(a) production in the liver, currently being evaluated in the Phase 3 OCEAN(a)-Outcomes study. While olpasiran uses a different drug design and may target a different patient population, the Novartis miss undermined a core assumption underpinning the entire therapeutic class: that dramatically lowering Lp(a) would translate into fewer cardiovascular events. Analysts cautioned that the failure weakens—but does not refute—the scientific rationale, yet investors reassessed the commercial value of the pipeline, pressuring the stock.
Analyst Downgrade Adds to Selling Pressure
The market reaction was amplified by a downgrade from BMO Capital Markets, which cut AMGN to Market Perform from Outperform while maintaining a $450 price target. The firm cited the stock's roughly 34% year-to-date gain, arguing that commercial execution is now largely reflected in the share price, and flagged significant loss-of-exclusivity headwinds across key franchises including Prolia/XGEVA, Enbrel, Otezla, and Kyprolis. BMO also noted that Phase 2 efficacy and tolerability data for the company's obesity candidate MariTide left questions about its competitiveness against established injectable and oral therapies.
Market Context and Trading Activity
The decline unfolded against a backdrop of broader market weakness. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, where AMGN carries one of the highest share prices and therefore outsized influence, fell more sharply than the S&P 500, with Amgen's slide alone accounting for a meaningful portion of the index's decline. Oil prices climbed roughly 3% on escalating U.S.–Iran tensions following the Labor Day weekend, adding a risk-off tone to the session.
The move pulled the stock well below its 52-week high of $447.03, which it had approached only weeks earlier. Trading activity was notably heavy as investors repositioned across the cardiovascular and broader biotech complex, with other Lp(a)-focused names such as NewAmsterdam Pharma also coming under pressure.
What Comes Next for AMGN
Investor attention now turns to Amgen's own OCEAN(a)-Outcomes study, which has completed enrollment of 7,297 participants and is tracking cardiovascular outcomes over roughly five years. JPMorgan analysts noted that the Novartis result lowers expectations for olpasiran ahead of late-stage data anticipated in late 2027 or early 2028, and expressed skepticism about whether the drug's effect would prove clinically meaningful enough to support a significant commercial opportunity.
Beyond the pipeline, traders will monitor the durability of Amgen's core franchise revenues amid patent expirations, progress on the MariTide obesity program, and any further analyst or regulatory developments. The stock's elevated valuation relative to the broader pharmaceutical sector also leaves it vulnerable to additional volatility should clinical or commercial expectations shift.
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AMGN in upward trend: 10-day moving average crossed above 50-day moving average on October 01, 2026
The 10-day moving average for AMGN crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 01, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where AMGN's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 17 of 27 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on September 22, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AMGN as a result. In 44 of 75 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AMGN just turned positive on September 24, 2026. Looking at past instances where AMGN's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Following a +2.18% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AMGN advanced for three days, in 191 of 311 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
AMGN may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 33 of 67 cases where AMGN's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 49%.
AMGN moved below its 50-day moving average on October 01, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AMGN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 47%.
The Aroon Indicator for AMGN entered a downward trend on September 25, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 8 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (19.342) is normal, around the industry mean (19.199). P/E Ratio (25.971) is within average values for comparable stocks, (34.793). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.524) is also within normal values, averaging (5.738). Dividend Yield (0.024) settles around the average of (0.025) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.371) is also within normal values, averaging (4.033).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 64, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 15 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 27 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AMGN’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
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General Information
a manufacturer of human therapeutic products based on cellular biology
Industry PharmaceuticalsMajor
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