GET DAILY SIGNALSWhy Is Qualcomm (QCOM) Stock Down -9.11% Today?
Key Takeaways
- QCOM fell roughly 9.11% in Thursday's session, dropping to about $157.41 from a prior close of $173.19.
- Primary catalyst: A weaker-than-expected December-quarter profit forecast overshadowed an otherwise solid fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report.
- Secondary driver: A 26% year-over-year decline in smartphone chip revenue and rising memory and component costs pressured margins.
- Broader context: Semiconductor shares broadly slipped, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index lower as investors weighed smartphone weakness and component-cost inflation.
- What to watch next: The company's diversification into automotive, IoT, and data centers, plus commentary on the Apple modem transition.
- For more detail on this stock, explore Price Targets, Earnings, and Forecast pages.
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Opening Summary
Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM), the San Diego-based semiconductor giant best known for the processors and modems that power smartphones, tumbled sharply on Thursday after its latest earnings guidance fell short of Wall Street's expectations. Shares were down about 9.11%, trading near $157.41 compared with a prior-session close of $173.19. The earnings-driven selloff reflected investor disappointment with a December-quarter profit outlook that pointed to continued pressure from rising component costs and a soft handset market, even as the company beat estimates on revenue and earnings for the period just ended.
Earnings Results and Guidance
The market reaction centered on Qualcomm's fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 report and, more importantly, its forward guidance. The company posted adjusted earnings of $2.17 per share, narrowly ahead of the $2.16 consensus, with revenue also coming in above estimates. However, the chipmaker guided December-quarter adjusted EPS to a range of $2.15 to $2.35, with the $2.25 midpoint landing below the analyst consensus of roughly $2.27. Management cited a "broad-based increase" in component and manufacturing costs, a signal that profit margins may stay under pressure in the near term.
Smartphone Weakness and Rising Component Costs
Qualcomm's largest business continues to drag on results. Handset chip revenue fell 26% year over year to about $5.14 billion, missing expectations as demand for smartphones remained sluggish. Surging prices for memory chips—driven in part by booming AI data-center demand—have raised costs for phone makers and dampened consumer demand, with global smartphone shipments down roughly 20% in the September quarter to a 14-year low. The company has raised its own prices, but those increases have not fully offset the softness in its core handset segment.
Apple Modem Transition and Diversification
The shift by Apple to develop its own modem chips continues to weigh on sentiment. Qualcomm's latest guidance no longer includes incremental revenue from Apple, underscoring how quickly a key customer relationship is winding down. To offset this, management highlighted accelerating growth in non-handset businesses: automotive chip revenue surged about 89% year over year to roughly $1.99 billion, IoT revenue rose 4%, and data-center revenue reached $650 million, with leadership targeting $5 billion in data-center revenue by fiscal 2027. The company also announced a multi-year 5G infrastructure agreement with SpaceX's Starlink Mobile network—its largest 5G deal to date—but the diversification story was not enough to outweigh near-term smartphone concerns.
Market Context and Trading Activity
The decline in QCOM unfolded alongside broader weakness in the semiconductor sector. The PHLX Semiconductor Index traded lower, and chip peers including Micron and Arm Holdings also came under pressure as investors assessed the threat of higher component costs and regulatory uncertainty around data-center construction. Trading volume in Qualcomm shares was elevated relative to typical sessions, reflecting heavy investor repositioning after the earnings release and a technical break below near-term support and key moving averages. The stock's slide stands out against a market that had rallied earlier in the week following the U.S. midterm elections, highlighting the stock-specific nature of the move.
What Comes Next for QCOM
Looking ahead, investors will focus on whether Qualcomm's diversification efforts can offset the structural decline in its handset business. Key areas of attention include the ramp of custom silicon for hyperscale data-center customers, continued automotive growth, and the execution of the SpaceX 5G agreement. Risks remain significant: memory-chip pricing could keep squeezing margins, the Apple modem transition may accelerate, and the broader smartphone market is expected to stay subdued. Management's next earnings report and any updated commentary on margin recovery and non-handset revenue will be critical for determining whether the stock can stabilize.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
QCOM in upward trend: price may jump up because it broke its lower Bollinger Band on October 30, 2026
QCOM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 27 of 37 cases where QCOM's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a +6.86% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where QCOM advanced for three days, in 215 of 325 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 30, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on QCOM as a result. In 64 of 88 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for QCOM turned negative on October 30, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 36 of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 75%.
QCOM moved below its 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for QCOM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 8 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where QCOM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.
The Aroon Indicator for QCOM entered a downward trend on November 04, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. QCOM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 61 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.688) is normal, around the industry mean (5.869). P/E Ratio (19.614) is within average values for comparable stocks, (16.161). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.832) is also within normal values, averaging (3.803). Dividend Yield (0.021) settles around the average of (0.012) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.513) is also within normal values, averaging (46.468).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock slightly better than average.
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General Information
a provider of wireless communication systems
Industry Semiconductors
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