GET DAILY SIGNALSWhy Is Velo3D (VELO) Stock Down -18.21% Today?
Key Takeaways
- VELO shares were down 18.21% to $4.94 in early trading Wednesday, extending a sharp post-earnings selloff from the prior session's $6.04 close.
- The primary catalyst was a mixed third-quarter 2026 earnings report: revenue beat estimates, but the adjusted loss missed Wall Street's consensus.
- Analysts responded by slashing price targets — Needham cut its target from $33 to $12, while Cantor Fitzgerald trimmed its target from $17 to $12.
- Management reaffirmed full-year revenue guidance but pushed profitability targets out to 2028, disappointing investors hoping for a nearer-term turn to positive EBITDA.
- For more detail on valuation and expectations, explore Price Targets, Earnings, and Forecast pages for VELO.
- For AI-driven trading ideas across thousands of symbols, visit Trending AI Robots.
Opening Summary
Velo3D, Inc. (VELO), a Fremont, California-based developer of metal additive manufacturing (3D printing) systems for the space, aviation, defense, and energy industries, saw its shares plunge in Wednesday's session. The stock was trading at $4.94, down $1.10, or 18.21%, from the prior session's close of $6.04. The decline extends an after-hours selloff that began late Tuesday following the release of the company's third-quarter 2026 financial results.
Earnings Results: A Bottom-Line Miss
The move was overwhelmingly earnings-driven. Velo3D reported third-quarter revenue of $20.5 million, up roughly 50% year over year and above the consensus estimate near $19.3 million, while gross profit climbed sharply to $5.4 million. However, the company remained deeply unprofitable, and the magnitude of that loss disappointed investors. Velo3D posted an adjusted loss of $0.34 per share, worse than the $0.26 per-share loss analysts had expected, while the net loss attributable to common shareholders widened to $16.7 million from $11.2 million a year earlier.
The widening loss reflected higher operating expenses tied to investments in personnel, technology, and the build-out of the company's Livermore Production Campus. For a stock trading with elevated expectations into the report, the larger-than-forecast loss outweighed the encouraging top-line momentum and a healthy $28.9 million in new bookings.
Guidance and Analyst Reactions
Investors were also reacting to a softer forward outlook. Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $65 million to $75 million, but signaled that key profitability milestones are being pushed back. The company now expects positive earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and positive operating cash flow in 2028, rather than the previously guided positive EBITDA in the second half of 2026. A planned reduction in capital expenditures — to a range of $10 million to $20 million — largely reflects spending shifted into 2027.
The guidance prompted immediate analyst revisions. Needham maintained its Buy rating but lowered its price target from $33 to $12, while Cantor Fitzgerald kept an Overweight rating and cut its target from $17 to $12. The size of these downward revisions underscored the market's recalibration of the company's near-term path to profitability.
Market Context and Trading Activity
The selloff was amplified by Velo3D's volatility profile — the stock carries a five-year monthly beta above 2.5, meaning it tends to move far more sharply than the broader market. Trading volume was elevated relative to recent sessions, consistent with heavy repositioning following the earnings release. The decline occurred against a backdrop of sustained enthusiasm for the additive manufacturing and defense supply-chain themes, but Wednesday's move reflected company-specific disappointment rather than a broader sector rotation.
What Comes Next for VELO
Looking ahead, traders will focus on whether Velo3D can convert its strong booking trends and 50% revenue growth into sustained margin improvement. Key signposts include the ramp of the Livermore Production Campus, the pace of new bookings, and any progress toward the company's 2028 profitability targets. Risks remain centered on execution, cash burn, and the timing of large customer orders in the defense and aerospace markets. With analyst sentiment recently turning more cautious, VELO is likely to remain highly reactive to operational updates and any shifts in capital-raising plans.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page showcases a curated selection of the platform's strongest-performing AI trading bots under current market conditions. Tickeron offers hundreds of automated bots covering thousands of tickers, each varying by strategy, timeframe, performance metrics, and the symbols they trade. Exploring the page can help traders identify AI-driven approaches that align with their own objectives and risk tolerance.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
VELO in upward trend: price may jump up because it broke its lower Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026
VELO may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 30 of 35 cases where VELO's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where VELO's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 28 of 35 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 49 of 63 cases where VELO's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for VELO just turned positive on November 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where VELO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 35 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
Following a +28.72% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where VELO advanced for three days, in 203 of 242 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where VELO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
The Aroon Indicator for VELO entered a downward trend on November 10, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 31 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.224) is normal, around the industry mean (-6.197). P/E Ratio (-2.514) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-3.670). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (23.994). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.012) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.039) is also within normal values, averaging (51.774).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 65 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. VELO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. VELO’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 91, placing this stock worse than average.
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Advertisement
General Information
Industry ComputerProcessingHardware
Advertisement