XP Inc. (XP) Gains +21% in 30 Days on Earnings Beat and Brazil Election Trade
Key Takeaways
- XP Inc. shares climbed roughly 21% over the trailing 30 days, rising from about $16.53 to $20.01.
- Second-quarter 2026 results beat estimates, showing strong client-asset growth and record net new money.
- An Itaú BBA upgrade to Outperform and a Brazil central bank Selic rate cut reinforced the rally.
- Ahead of Brazil's October national election, investors rotated into the stock on a broader "election trade."
- Over the trailing quarter, XP gained about 25% despite sharp intra-quarter swings.
XP Inc. (XP): Company Snapshot
XP Inc. operates as a technology-enabled financial services platform and ranks among Brazil’s largest independent investment providers. It delivers low-fee brokerage and a wide range of products including equities, fixed income, funds, pensions, credit cards, insurance, and banking, plus a growing corporate and institutional franchise. The firm serves roughly 4.8 million active clients via about 18,400 financial advisors and manages more than R$2.2 trillion in client assets. I track the stock for its asset-gathering momentum, expanding product suite, and management’s goal of becoming Brazil’s investment leader by 2033.
Recent Price Action: +21% in 30 Days, +25% Over the Quarter
Over the last 30 days, XP shares advanced approximately 21%, moving from a closing price near $16.53 to a recent close of $20.01. The advance was not linear—the stock consolidated through late August before accelerating in early September and holding near the $20 level into mid-September. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to compare the move against peers in the sector.
On a trailing-quarter basis the picture looks stronger yet more volatile. From a level near $15.99 in late June, XP gained roughly 25%, even after twice testing the mid-$15 area—dipping toward $15.44 in early July and again in mid-August—before the recent re-rating. The overall trend shows a stock recovering from a mid-year pullback and moving back above its longer-term moving averages.
Drivers Behind the Recent Rally
Several catalysts converged to support the move. On August 17, XP reported second-quarter 2026 results that topped expectations: adjusted diluted earnings per share came in around $0.53 versus consensus near $0.50, while gross revenue reached roughly R$5.1 billion, up 8% year over year. Client assets grew 17% year over year, and net new money totaled a record R$28 billion for the quarter. The corporate segment stood out, with revenue up 117% year over year, while adjusted earnings before taxes rose 15% and the adjusted EBT margin expanded to about 32%.
Analyst actions added further support. On August 31, Itaú BBA upgraded XP from Market Perform to Outperform with a $22 price objective, and Weiss Ratings raised its view on September 2. Later in the period, Brazil’s central bank cut the benchmark Selic interest rate to 13.75% from 14%, a step investors see as supportive of risk appetite and XP’s revenue momentum.
Sentiment also improved ahead of Brazil’s October 4 national election, with investors positioning for potentially market-friendly outcomes—a so-called “election trade.” Bullish options activity, including elevated call volume and a low put/call ratio, signaled rising near-term conviction, while ongoing share buybacks and dividend payouts reinforced confidence in management’s capital-return program. From what I see, these elements together created a constructive setup.
Quarterly Performance Factors
The broader quarterly trend reflects a gradual recovery in Brazilian risk assets as inflation cooled and the central bank resumed its easing cycle. XP’s underlying business momentum—particularly in equities, the funds platform, and corporate banking—helped offset mark-to-market losses in fixed income and a softer primary debt-capital-markets pipeline. Management reiterated its guidance for double-digit growth through 2026 and signaled continued capital returns, including buybacks, dividends, and share cancellations. Together, these factors supported the stock’s re-rating from the mid-teens toward $20 over the quarter.
Looking Ahead: Key Factors to Monitor
Looking ahead, investors are likely to watch several items. XP’s next earnings report is expected around late November, with management’s commentary on retail and corporate momentum, net new money, and efficiency a key focus. The path of Brazil’s Selic rate and any further disinflation will shape risk appetite, while the outcome of the October election and subsequent fiscal policy decisions could influence Brazilian assets broadly. Competitive pressures in brokerage and the recovery of the fixed-income issuance pipeline also remain relevant. The consensus one-year price target stood near $22.85 in late August, with an average “Moderate Buy” rating, though these figures can shift as analysts update estimates.
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Financial analyst and market blogger with expertise in equity research, fundamental analysis, and macroeconomic trends. I regularly publish coverage on individual stocks, ETFs, and sector developments — combining rigorous financial analysis with clear, engaging writing for a broad investment audience.
XP's Stochastic Oscillator is staying in overbought zone for 6 days
The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 79%.
XP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 05, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for XP just turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where XP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 39 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The 50-day moving average for XP moved above the 200-day moving average on September 29, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a +7.93% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XP advanced for three days, in 214 of 293 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 149 of 198 cases where XP Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 75%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. XP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.146) is normal, around the industry mean (4.351). P/E Ratio (10.366) is within average values for comparable stocks, (30.023). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.970) is also within normal values, averaging (0.809). Dividend Yield (0.010) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.325) is also within normal values, averaging (16.763).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. XP’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 86, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a technology-driven financial services platform, which offers services in Investments, Technology, Career, and Financial Market.
Industry InvestmentBanksBrokers
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