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AA vs CENX
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Alcoa Corporation (AA) vs. Century Aluminum Company (CENX) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both AA and CENX operate in the aluminum sector, benefiting from elevated metal prices amid industrial demand in recent market activity.
- CENX has demonstrated stronger year-to-date gains of approximately 56%, outpacing AA's 25% rise.
- AA trades at a more attractive price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 17, compared to CENX's elevated 146, signaling better relative valuation.
- CENX exhibits higher volatility with a beta of 2.0 versus AA's 1.7, reflecting greater sensitivity to market swings.
- Recent momentum favors CENX, with shares up over 20% in the past month amid expansion news and margin improvements.
- AA shows technical breakouts but faces balanced risk-reward per recent analyst views.
Introduction
This comparison examines AA (Alcoa Corporation) and CENX (Century Aluminum Company), two key players in the aluminum production sector. Amid rising commodity prices driven by industrial demand and supply constraints, these stocks offer insights into sector dynamics. Traders seeking short-term momentum and investors eyeing long-term exposure to metals may find value in evaluating their relative performance, valuations, and risk profiles in the current market environment.
AA Overview and Recent Performance
Alcoa Corporation (AA) is a vertically integrated aluminum producer, spanning bauxite mining, alumina refining, and primary aluminum smelting. In recent market activity, AA shares have risen about 25% year-to-date, supported by higher aluminum prices. Sentiment has been influenced by technical breakouts and short-squeeze signals, with shares gaining over 7% in recent sessions, though volatility persists with a five-day pullback. Analyst adjustments, including a downgrade to equal weight after outperformance, reflect balanced risk-reward amid cost pressures and earnings anticipation. With a market capitalization of approximately $17.5 billion, AA maintains stability in the sector.
CENX Overview and Recent Performance
Century Aluminum Company (CENX) focuses on primary aluminum production through smelters, primarily in the U.S. Recent weeks have seen robust gains, with shares up around 56% year-to-date and over 20% in the past month, trading near 52-week highs. Key drivers include expanding margins despite costs, smelter expansion plans, and geopolitical tailwinds boosting demand. The stock has outperformed industrial peers, with strong Zacks rankings underscoring positive sentiment. Market cap stands near $6 billion, highlighting its growth trajectory in a volatile commodity landscape.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
AA and CENX share aluminum sector exposure but differ in business models: AA offers upstream integration for cost efficiencies, while CENX emphasizes primary smelting with U.S.-focused capacity expansions as growth drivers. Recent momentum strongly favors CENX, up 310% over 12 months versus AA's 182%. Risk factors include higher beta for CENX (2.0), amplifying commodity swings, compared to AA's steadier profile. Market sentiment tilts toward CENX on margin gains and outperformance, though AA provides superior valuation trade-offs.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI models would likely favor CENX in the current environment due to its consistent trend strength, superior relative performance, and positive catalysts like expansions amid rising aluminum demand. While AA offers greater stability and valuation appeal, CENX's momentum positions it probabilistically ahead for trend-following strategies.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AA is a Hold and CENX is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AA’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileCENX’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- AA’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- CENX’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AA’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while CENX’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AA’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 7 bearish.
- CENX’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
AA (@Aluminum) experienced а -9.06% price change this week, while CENX (@Aluminum) price change was -9.22% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Aluminum industry was -6.54%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -11.46%, and the average quarterly price growth was +39.46%.
Reported Earning Dates
AA is expected to report earnings on Jul 16, 2026.
CENX is expected to report earnings on Aug 06, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Aluminum (-6.54% weekly)Aluminum is widely used in the industries like construction, packaging and automotive sector. The segment has seen increased demand for the lightweight variety in automobiles in improving fuel efficiency. The U.S. aluminum industry generates nearly $71 billion a year in direct economic impact (according to The Aluminum Association). Arconic, Inc, Alcoa Corp and Kaiser Aluminum Corporation are major aluminum companies in the U.S.
| AA | CENX | AA / CENX | |
| Capitalization | 15.4B | 4.9B | 314% |
| EBITDA | 1.67B | 444M | 377% |
| Gain YTD | 10.160 | 26.391 | 38% |
| P/E Ratio | 14.96 | 14.74 | 102% |
| Revenue | 12.7B | 2.54B | 499% |
| Total Cash | 1.35B | 244M | 555% |
| Total Debt | 2.44B | 546M | 447% |
AA | CENX | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 64 | 60 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 24 Undervalued | 76 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 77 | 32 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 53 | 26 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 44 | 40 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 11 | 47 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AA's Valuation (24) in the Aluminum industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CENX (76). This means that AA’s stock grew somewhat faster than CENX’s over the last 12 months.
CENX's Profit vs Risk Rating (32) in the Aluminum industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AA (77). This means that CENX’s stock grew somewhat faster than AA’s over the last 12 months.
CENX's SMR Rating (26) in the Aluminum industry is in the same range as AA (53). This means that CENX’s stock grew similarly to AA’s over the last 12 months.
CENX's Price Growth Rating (40) in the Aluminum industry is in the same range as AA (44). This means that CENX’s stock grew similarly to AA’s over the last 12 months.
AA's P/E Growth Rating (11) in the Aluminum industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CENX (47). This means that AA’s stock grew somewhat faster than CENX’s over the last 12 months.
| AA | CENX | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 86% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 80% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 78% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 78% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 80% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 81% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 22 days ago 80% | 12 days ago 82% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 80% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 83% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 82% | 1 day ago 82% |
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CENX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CENX has been loosely correlated with KALU. These tickers have moved in lockstep 45% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CENX jumps, then KALU could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CENX | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CENX | 100% | -4.24% | ||
| KALU - CENX | 45% Loosely correlated | +1.07% | ||
| CSTM - CENX | 41% Loosely correlated | +1.76% | ||
| AA - CENX | 18% Poorly correlated | -1.72% |