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AAL vs ALK
Which Stock Would AI Choose? American Airlines Group (AAL) vs. Alaska Air Group (ALK) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AAL has outperformed ALK year-to-date (YTD), with returns around 20% compared to ALK's 13%.
- Both stocks face sector headwinds from rising fuel costs, but AAL shows stronger one-year gains of about 30% versus ALK's 4%.
- AAL's larger market capitalization of $8.1 billion dwarfs ALK's $5 billion, reflecting greater scale.
- Recent merger rumors and upcoming earnings have influenced sentiment for both, with ALK reporting a Q1 loss but beating revenue estimates.
- Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios stand high for both at 72 for AAL and 52 for ALK, signaling elevated valuations amid profitability pressures.
Introduction
American Airlines Group (AAL) and Alaska Air Group (ALK) operate in the highly competitive U.S. airline industry, where fuel costs, demand fluctuations, and capacity management drive stock performance. This comparison is particularly relevant for traders monitoring sector rotation and investors assessing relative strength amid economic uncertainties. Both companies contend with similar macroeconomic pressures, but differences in scale, route networks, and strategic moves offer distinct opportunities and risks in the current market environment.
AAL Overview and Recent Performance
American Airlines Group (AAL), the world's largest airline by fleet size, provides passenger and cargo services across a vast domestic and international network. In recent market activity, AAL shares have climbed about 20% year-to-date, outpacing broader indices, though volatility persists due to spiking fuel prices and capacity adjustments. Sentiment has been shaped by rumors of potential mergers, such as with United Airlines, which briefly pressured shares before fading, alongside anticipation for Q1 earnings on April 23. Broader challenges like rising labor costs and softening demand in certain routes have tempered gains, yet the stock's resilience reflects robust revenue trends exceeding 10% growth projections.
ALK Overview and Recent Performance
Alaska Air Group (ALK) focuses on West Coast and transcontinental routes, bolstered by its ongoing integration of Hawaiian Airlines following their acquisition. Recent weeks have seen ALK shares rise around 13% year-to-date, lagging peers amid high fuel expenses and market turbulence. The company reported a Q1 loss per share but surpassed revenue expectations, signaling operational discipline. Speculation as an acquisition target, highlighted by analysts, has supported sentiment, though elevated debt levels and integration costs pose risks. Price action reflects broader airline sector strains, with shares trading near the middle of their 52-week range.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
AAL boasts a dominant business model with extensive global reach and higher revenue of $54.6 billion trailing twelve months (TTM), contrasting ALK's regional emphasis and $14.2 billion TTM revenue. Growth drivers differ: AAL benefits from scale efficiencies, while ALK pursues expansion via Hawaiian synergies. Recent momentum favors AAL's 30% one-year return over ALK's modest 4%, though ALK offers potential upside from premium services. Risk factors include shared vulnerabilities to fuel volatility and economic slowdowns, with AAL's higher beta (1.25) indicating greater sensitivity versus ALK's 1.27. Sector exposure is concentrated in passenger transport for both, but market sentiment leans toward AAL's stability amid M&A chatter.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI currently favors AAL over ALK, driven by superior trend consistency, stronger YTD and one-year momentum, and relative market positioning despite sector challenges. ALK's growth catalysts provide intrigue, but AAL's scale and performance edge suggest higher probability of near-term outperformance based on observable data patterns.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AAL is a Buy and ALK is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AAL’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileALK’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- AAL’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- ALK’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AAL’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ALK’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AAL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- ALK’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
AAL (@Airlines) experienced а +2.74% price change this week, while ALK (@Airlines) price change was +0.20% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Airlines industry was +2.39%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +10.46%, and the average quarterly price growth was +1.62%.
Reported Earning Dates
AAL is expected to report earnings on Jul 16, 2026.
ALK is expected to report earnings on Jul 16, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Airlines (+2.39% weekly)Airlines industry comprises passenger air transportation, including scheduled and non-scheduled routes. This can include charter airlines, as well as regular commuter ones. Discount pricing and the rise of low-cost carriers over recent decades have expanded the industry by making its services accessible to a much larger global population, compared to the older days when airline travel was a relative luxury for many people in the world. Delta Air Lines Inc., Southwest Airlines Co and United Continental Holdings, Inc. are some of the airlines with the largest stock market capitalizations in the U.S.
| AAL | ALK | AAL / ALK | |
| Capitalization | 10.7B | 5.48B | 195% |
| EBITDA | 2.05B | 1.11B | 184% |
| Gain YTD | 5.284 | -2.167 | -244% |
| P/E Ratio | 51.87 | 99.59 | 52% |
| Revenue | 56B | 14.4B | 389% |
| Total Cash | 7.29B | 1.77B | 413% |
| Total Debt | 34.9B | 6.67B | 523% |
AAL | ALK | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 44 | 38 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 66 Overvalued | 78 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 15 | 90 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 12 | 44 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 3 | 2 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AAL's Valuation (66) in the Airlines industry is in the same range as ALK (78). This means that AAL’s stock grew similarly to ALK’s over the last 12 months.
AAL's Profit vs Risk Rating (100) in the Airlines industry is in the same range as ALK (100). This means that AAL’s stock grew similarly to ALK’s over the last 12 months.
AAL's SMR Rating (15) in the Airlines industry is significantly better than the same rating for ALK (90). This means that AAL’s stock grew significantly faster than ALK’s over the last 12 months.
AAL's Price Growth Rating (12) in the Airlines industry is in the same range as ALK (44). This means that AAL’s stock grew similarly to ALK’s over the last 12 months.
ALK's P/E Growth Rating (2) in the Airlines industry is in the same range as AAL (3). This means that ALK’s stock grew similarly to AAL’s over the last 12 months.
| AAL | ALK | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 64% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 59% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 69% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 65% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 76% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 76% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 8 days ago 75% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 20 days ago 77% | 21 days ago 75% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 69% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 77% |
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AAL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AAL has been closely correlated with UAL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 83% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AAL jumps, then UAL could also see price increases.
ALK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ALK has been closely correlated with AAL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 72% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ALK jumps, then AAL could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ALK | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALK | 100% | +0.84% | ||
| AAL - ALK | 72% Closely correlated | +0.37% | ||
| SKYW - ALK | 72% Closely correlated | +0.82% | ||
| ALGT - ALK | 68% Closely correlated | +1.27% | ||
| SNCY - ALK | 61% Loosely correlated | N/A | ||
| ULCC - ALK | 60% Loosely correlated | +1.26% | ||
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