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AAL vs UAL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? American Airlines Group (AAL) vs. United Airlines Holdings (UAL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AAL posted record third-quarter revenue but swung to an adjusted quarterly loss, while UAL remained solidly profitable despite a year-over-year earnings decline.
- Both carriers beat earnings expectations, but the market reacted more favorably to AAL's stronger forward guidance than to UAL's margin pressure.
- UAL holds a stronger balance-sheet and profitability profile, while AAL trades at a lower absolute share price with greater debt leverage.
- Premium demand and loyalty-program growth are key shared catalysts, while labor costs and capacity growth pose common risks.
- UAL has outperformed AAL in 2025 relative performance, though both lag the broader S&P 500 over the same period.
Introduction
American Airlines Group (AAL) and United Airlines Holdings (UAL) are two of the largest U.S. network carriers, competing for the same premium, corporate, and international travel demand. For traders and investors weighing airline exposure, this stock comparison highlights meaningful differences in profitability, leverage, and recent market momentum. Both companies have navigated a turbulent operating environment in recent quarters, marked by weather disruptions and air-traffic-control issues, while leaning on premium-cabin demand and loyalty programs for revenue support. Understanding how each firm's market positioning has evolved offers a useful lens for evaluating relative performance and risk within the airline sector.
AAL Overview and Recent Performance
American Airlines Group operates one of the world's largest route networks, serving more than 350 destinations across over 60 countries as a founding member of the oneworld alliance. In its most recent quarterly report, AAL delivered record third-quarter revenue of roughly $13.7 billion, a marginal year-over-year increase, driven by strength in high-margin premium services and its AAdvantage loyalty program. Active loyalty accounts rose about 7% year over year, while co-branded credit-card spending climbed 9%. The company nonetheless posted an adjusted net loss, citing a difficult operating environment shaped by significant weather events and a Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) technology outage. Investors responded positively to forward guidance that was well above consensus, with management raising its full-year adjusted earnings outlook and forecasting positive fourth-quarter profitability. Shares had declined substantially earlier in the year but rebounded in recent weeks as cost discipline and an improved distribution strategy improved sentiment.
UAL Overview and Recent Performance
United Airlines Holdings operates a broad domestic and international network, with a particular emphasis on premium and transatlantic travel, alongside growing Pacific and Latin America exposure. In its latest quarterly results, UAL generated revenue of approximately $15.2 billion, up about 2.6% year over year, and reported adjusted earnings per share that exceeded analyst expectations. However, profitability declined from the prior-year period, with operating margin narrowing as cost pressures, including labor expenses, weighed on results. The shares pulled back following the report even as management issued an upbeat fourth-quarter outlook. In recent weeks, UAL has advanced initiatives including expansion of its transatlantic schedule and certification of its first aircraft equipped with Starlink in-flight internet. Unlike AAL, UAL has remained profitable through the period, and its shares have held modestly positive territory for the year, reflecting a relatively stronger earnings and balance-sheet profile.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two carriers diverge most clearly on profitability and financial leverage. UAL has sustained positive earnings and a lower debt burden relative to its larger revenue base, while AAL carries heavier total and net debt and recently swung to a quarterly loss, though it is targeting debt reduction over the next few years. In terms of growth drivers, both companies emphasize premium-cabin and loyalty revenue, but UAL's greater international and premium mix has supported stronger unit-revenue stability. On momentum, AAL's stock recovered sharply after its earnings release, while UAL's shares slipped despite a beat, reflecting investor sensitivity to margin compression. Risk factors are broadly shared across fuel prices, labor costs, and capacity discipline, yet AAL's leverage makes it more sensitive to an economic slowdown. Sector exposure is similar, but market positioning differs: UAL trades at a higher price with a stronger analyst consensus, whereas AAL offers a lower-priced, higher-volatility profile.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor UAL at present, reflecting its more consistent profitability, stronger balance sheet, and steadier relative performance trend throughout the year. While AAL has demonstrated improved cost control and encouraging forward guidance, its heavier leverage and recent quarterly loss introduce greater variability. The AI's assessment weighs trend consistency, stability, and catalysts, and on that basis UAL appears to hold the more favorable risk-adjusted positioning. This is a probabilistic read of current conditions rather than a definitive outcome, and relative positioning could shift as new data emerges.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AAL is a Hold and UAL is a Hold.
Momentum Indicator for AAL turns negative, indicating new downward trend
AAL saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on October 02, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 80 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 62 of the 80 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 50-day moving average for AAL moved below the 200-day moving average on October 12, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AAL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
The Aroon Indicator for AAL entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where AAL's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 28 of 40 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 48 of 59 cases where AAL's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AAL just turned positive on October 22, 2026. Looking at past instances where AAL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 37 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Following a +4.05% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AAL advanced for three days, in 218 of 291 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
AAL may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 5 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: AAL's P/B Ratio (-2.100) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.862). AAL has a moderately low P/E Ratio (-25.714) as compared to the industry average of (5.677). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.114) is also within normal values, averaging (2.252). Dividend Yield (0.032) settles around the average of (0.026) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.144) is also within normal values, averaging (0.529).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 16 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. AAL’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 99 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AAL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock worse than average.
UAL's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for UAL entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 156 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 119 of the 156 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on UAL as a result. In 62 of 85 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for UAL turned negative on October 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 33 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 73%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UAL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where UAL's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 21 of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 47 of 54 cases where UAL's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.
Following a +4.33% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UAL advanced for three days, in 235 of 313 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
UAL may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. UAL’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 61 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.983) is normal, around the industry mean (1.862). P/E Ratio (9.453) is within average values for comparable stocks, (5.677). UAL's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (6.503) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.252). UAL's Dividend Yield (0.084) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.026). P/S Ratio (0.552) is also within normal values, averaging (0.529).
AAL | UAL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 70 | 80 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 5 Undervalued | 61 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 46 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 16 | 42 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 60 | 60 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 99 | 43 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AAL's Valuation (5) in the Airlines industry is somewhat better than the same rating for UAL (61). This means that AAL’s stock grew somewhat faster than UAL’s over the last 12 months.
UAL's Profit vs Risk Rating (46) in the Airlines industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AAL (100). This means that UAL’s stock grew somewhat faster than AAL’s over the last 12 months.
AAL's SMR Rating (16) in the Airlines industry is in the same range as UAL (42). This means that AAL’s stock grew similarly to UAL’s over the last 12 months.
AAL's Price Growth Rating (60) in the Airlines industry is in the same range as UAL (60). This means that AAL’s stock grew similarly to UAL’s over the last 12 months.
UAL's P/E Growth Rating (43) in the Airlines industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AAL (99). This means that UAL’s stock grew somewhat faster than AAL’s over the last 12 months.
| AAL | UAL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 75% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 81% | 1 day ago 87% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 73% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 73% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 80% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 72% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 75% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 77% | 4 days ago 75% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 78% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 76% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AAL’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while UAL’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- AAL’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- UAL’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AAL’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UAL’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AAL’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- UAL’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
AAL (@Airlines) experienced а +3.77% price change this week, while UAL (@Airlines) price change was +0.68% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Airlines industry was -1.87%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -9.81%, and the average quarterly price growth was -5.18%.
Reported Earning Dates
AAL is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
UAL is expected to report earnings on Jan 20, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Airlines (-1.87% weekly)Airlines industry comprises passenger air transportation, including scheduled and non-scheduled routes. This can include charter airlines, as well as regular commuter ones. Discount pricing and the rise of low-cost carriers over recent decades have expanded the industry by making its services accessible to a much larger global population, compared to the older days when airline travel was a relative luxury for many people in the world. Delta Air Lines Inc., Southwest Airlines Co and United Continental Holdings, Inc. are some of the airlines with the largest stock market capitalizations in the U.S.
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AAL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AAL has been closely correlated with DAL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 84% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AAL jumps, then DAL could also see price increases.
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