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AAL vs UAL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? American Airlines Group (AAL) vs. United Airlines Holdings (UAL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both airlines posted record third-quarter revenue, but sharply higher fuel costs created a stark profitability gap between the two carriers.
- UAL remains profitable with positive earnings and a strong balance-sheet position, while AAL swung to a quarterly loss and cut its full-year guidance.
- UAL carries a "Strong Buy" consensus among analysts and a higher forward earnings multiple, reflecting stronger relative momentum and premium-network positioning.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: UAL is the current ticker of choice, favored for its trend consistency, profitability, and more stable market positioning.
- For more context, explore AAL Major News and AAL Today's Price Move, as well as UAL Major News and UAL Today's Price Move.
- To see how automated strategies are positioning across the market, explore the Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Investors tracking the airline sector frequently weigh American Airlines Group and United Airlines Holdings as two of the largest U.S. network carriers. Both are heavily exposed to the same forces — passenger demand, fuel prices, and operating costs — yet they occupy different positions within the industry. This stock comparison examines their recent business developments, relative performance, and market positioning. It may be especially relevant for traders and investors seeking to understand how two prominent legacy airlines diverge on profitability, leverage, and momentum in the current environment.
AAL Overview and Recent Performance
AAL, or American Airlines Group, operates one of the world's largest route networks with major hubs including Dallas/Fort Worth, Charlotte, and Miami. In recent weeks, the company reported record operating revenue of roughly $16.3 billion, up 19.3% year over year, reflecting strong travel demand. However, fuel costs rose approximately 68% and added about $1.9 billion in expense, pushing the carrier to a net loss and prompting management to lower its full-year outlook.
These cost pressures have weighed on sentiment. The stock trades well below its 52-week high and has lagged the broader market in recent market activity. On a positive note, American maintains the youngest average fleet among U.S. legacy carriers, which supports its medium-term cost and capital-spending profile. Still, elevated financial leverage and negative earnings have made the shares more sensitive to fuel-price swings and demand shocks.
UAL Overview and Recent Performance
UAL, or United Airlines Holdings, is a Chicago-based network carrier with a route system weighted toward international and long-haul travel, including a strong presence across the Pacific. In its most recent quarter, United reported record operating revenue of roughly $17.9 billion, up 17.4% year over year, driven by premium, loyalty, and cargo growth. Adjusted net income was positive, and return on equity (a measure of how efficiently a company generates profit from shareholder capital) remained strong.
Like its peer, United faced a significant fuel-cost increase, but it recaptured a larger share of that increase through pricing. Its Q4 earnings guidance came in below some analyst expectations, yet the shares have shown stronger relative momentum, aided by resilient demand and the accelerated rollout of in-flight connectivity. United's profitability and broader analyst support have helped sustain a more favorable market positioning despite sector-wide cost headwinds.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page showcases a curated selection of automated trading strategies drawn from a much larger universe of AI-driven bots that collectively trade thousands of tickers. These bots span a wide range of trading styles, timeframes, performance statistics, and ticker sets, and the curated list highlights only those currently best aligned with prevailing market conditions. Investors can review each bot's strategy and track record before deciding whether its approach matches their objectives. Explore the Trending AI Robots to see which automated strategies are gaining traction right now.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between AAL and UAL is profitability. United has continued to generate positive earnings and maintain a higher return on equity, while American has slipped into losses under fuel pressure. Business-model differences reinforce this: United leans on premium and international demand that supports higher revenue per seat, whereas American's larger domestic exposure and significant Latin America franchise give it different growth and risk dynamics.
On valuation and leverage, the picture also differs. American trades at a much lower price-to-sales ratio, but it carries heavier debt relative to earnings and weaker interest coverage, making it more vulnerable to shocks. United's shares command a richer multiple, backed by stronger margins and a "Strong Buy" consensus. Momentum and market sentiment currently favor United, while American's younger fleet and lower valuation present a trade-off for investors willing to accept more near-term uncertainty.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor UAL in the current environment. United demonstrates more consistent profitability, a more stable earnings trajectory, and stronger relative market positioning, even as both carriers confront elevated fuel costs. American's lower valuation and younger fleet offer potential longer-term appeal, but its recent swing to losses and heavier leverage introduce greater variability. In probabilistic terms, United's combination of trend consistency, catalysts, and financial resilience currently places it ahead in this stock comparison.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AAL is a Buy and UAL is a Buy.
AAL's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AAL turned positive on October 22, 2026. Looking at past instances where AAL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where AAL's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 29 of 41 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AAL as a result. In 60 of 80 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
AAL moved above its 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for AAL crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 09, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
Following a +9.51% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AAL advanced for three days, in 213 of 284 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The 50-day moving average for AAL moved below the 200-day moving average on October 12, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AAL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
AAL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for AAL entered a downward trend on October 29, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 6 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: AAL's P/B Ratio (-2.197) is slightly lower than the industry average of (2.379). AAL has a moderately low P/E Ratio (-26.898) as compared to the industry average of (6.762). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.114) is also within normal values, averaging (2.252). Dividend Yield (0.030) settles around the average of (0.025) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.144) is also within normal values, averaging (0.529).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 16 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 41 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. AAL’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 99 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AAL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 72, placing this stock worse than average.
UAL in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on November 06, 2026
The 10-day moving average for UAL crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 06, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 13 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where UAL's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 22 of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on UAL as a result. In 70 of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for UAL just turned positive on October 27, 2026. Looking at past instances where UAL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
UAL moved above its 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +6.94% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UAL advanced for three days, in 232 of 310 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 10 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 50-day moving average for UAL moved below the 200-day moving average on October 28, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UAL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
UAL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for UAL entered a downward trend on October 29, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 72, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. UAL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 66 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.192) is normal, around the industry mean (2.379). P/E Ratio (10.449) is within average values for comparable stocks, (6.762). UAL's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (6.503) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.252). UAL's Dividend Yield (0.076) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.025). P/S Ratio (0.552) is also within normal values, averaging (0.529).
AAL | UAL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 28 | 35 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 6 Undervalued | 66 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 34 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 16 | 42 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 46 | 42 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 99 | 31 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 41 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AAL's Valuation (6) in the Airlines industry is somewhat better than the same rating for UAL (66). This means that AAL’s stock grew somewhat faster than UAL’s over the last 12 months.
UAL's Profit vs Risk Rating (34) in the Airlines industry is significantly better than the same rating for AAL (100). This means that UAL’s stock grew significantly faster than AAL’s over the last 12 months.
AAL's SMR Rating (16) in the Airlines industry is in the same range as UAL (42). This means that AAL’s stock grew similarly to UAL’s over the last 12 months.
UAL's Price Growth Rating (42) in the Airlines industry is in the same range as AAL (46). This means that UAL’s stock grew similarly to AAL’s over the last 12 months.
UAL's P/E Growth Rating (31) in the Airlines industry is significantly better than the same rating for AAL (99). This means that UAL’s stock grew significantly faster than AAL’s over the last 12 months.
| AAL | UAL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 79% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 65% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 81% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 77% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 81% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 81% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 75% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 24 days ago 75% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 65% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 78% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AAL’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while UAL’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- AAL’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- UAL’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AAL’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UAL’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AAL’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 5 bearish.
- UAL’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
AAL (@Airlines) experienced а +10.06% price change this week, while UAL (@Airlines) price change was +12.45% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Airlines industry was +5.74%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +8.91%, and the average quarterly price growth was +8.25%.
Reported Earning Dates
AAL is expected to report earnings on Jan 28, 2027.
UAL is expected to report earnings on Jan 20, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Airlines (+5.74% weekly)Airlines industry comprises passenger air transportation, including scheduled and non-scheduled routes. This can include charter airlines, as well as regular commuter ones. Discount pricing and the rise of low-cost carriers over recent decades have expanded the industry by making its services accessible to a much larger global population, compared to the older days when airline travel was a relative luxury for many people in the world. Delta Air Lines Inc., Southwest Airlines Co and United Continental Holdings, Inc. are some of the airlines with the largest stock market capitalizations in the U.S.
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AAL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AAL has been closely correlated with DAL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 85% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AAL jumps, then DAL could also see price increases.
UAL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UAL has been closely correlated with AAL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 85% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if UAL jumps, then AAL could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To UAL | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAL | 100% | -1.82% | ||
| AAL - UAL | 85% Closely correlated | -0.07% | ||
| ALGT - UAL | 77% Closely correlated | +1.65% | ||
| SKYW - UAL | 74% Closely correlated | +1.97% | ||
| LUV - UAL | 73% Closely correlated | +0.35% | ||
| ULCC - UAL | 67% Closely correlated | -0.12% | ||
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