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ACI vs KR
Albertsons Companies (ACI) vs Kroger (KR) Earnings Recap: Q4 Results Highlight Resilience Amid Challenges
Key Takeaways
- Kroger reported Q4 FY2025 adjusted EPS of $1.28, beating estimates by 6.7%, with revenue of $34.7B; identical sales without fuel grew 2.4%.
- Albertsons Q3 FY2025 adjusted EPS reached $0.72, surpassing expectations, driven by 2.4% identical sales growth and 21% digital sales increase.
- Both grocers emphasized digital and pharmacy growth; Kroger's eCommerce sales rose 20%, targeting profitability improvements in FY2026.
- Kroger guides FY2026 identical sales without fuel at 1-2%, adjusted EPS $5.10-$5.30; Albertsons narrowed FY2025 identical sales to 2.2-2.5%.
- Kroger market cap ~$47B, YTD +15%; ACI ~$9.5B, YTD +1.6%; both offer dividends, ACI at 3.51% yield.
Earnings Context and Why This Comparison Matters
As leading U.S. grocery operators, ACI and KR navigate intense competition, shifting consumer preferences toward value, and regulatory pressures like the Inflation Reduction Act impacting pharmacy reimbursements. Recent earnings provide insights into operational resilience, with both firms prioritizing digital transformation, loyalty programs, and cost discipline. This comparison highlights their strategies in a mature industry where identical sales growth and margin stability drive shareholder value.
Kroger Focus
Kroger released Q4 FY2025 results for the quarter ended January 31, 2026, reporting adjusted EPS of $1.28, up 12% year-over-year and ahead of consensus estimates of $1.20. GAAP EPS was $1.35. Revenue reached $34.7 billion, up 1.2% but slightly below expectations. Identical sales without fuel grew 2.4%, reflecting strong demand in core categories amid pharmacy and digital strength. Adjusted FIFO operating profit hit $1.206 billion. For full FY2025, identical sales without fuel rose 2.9%, with adjusted EPS at $4.85.
Guidance for FY2026 includes identical sales without fuel growth of 1.0%-2.0% (factoring ~130 bps headwind from Inflation Reduction Act), adjusted FIFO operating profit of $5.0-$5.2 billion, and adjusted EPS of $5.10-$5.30. Highlights include 20% eCommerce growth, $16 billion annual eCommerce sales, and a strategic review projecting $400 million in eCommerce profit improvements. Kroger completed $7.5 billion in share repurchases and authorized $2 billion more.
Albertsons Companies Context
Albertsons reported Q3 FY2025 results for the period ended November 29, 2025, with adjusted EPS of $0.72 versus $0.71 last year, beating estimates. GAAP EPS was $0.55. Net sales rose 1.9% to $19.12 billion, with identical sales up 2.4% fueled by pharmacy and 21% digital growth. Loyalty members hit 49.8 million, up 12%. Adjusted EBITDA was $1.039 billion (5.4% of sales), down slightly from prior year.
FY2025 outlook narrowed to identical sales growth of 2.2%-2.5%, adjusted EBITDA $3.825-$3.875 billion (including 53rd week impact), and adjusted EPS $2.08-$2.16 per share. Capex remains $1.8-$1.9 billion. The firm boosted its share repurchase to $2.75 billion, including a $750 million ASR, and maintained $0.15 quarterly dividend. Productivity gains offset wage inflation, supporting investments in AI, retail media, and customer value.
Head-to-Head Earnings and Market Comparison
Kroger's scale ($147.6B FY2025 revenue vs. Albertsons' ~$82B TTM) yields higher absolute EBITDA (~$8.2B rolling four quarters vs. Albertsons' projected $3.85B FY2025), but Albertsons shows tighter margins in recent quarters. Both achieved ~2.4% identical sales growth recently, driven by digital (KR 20%, ACI 21%) and pharmacy, though regulatory headwinds loom. ACI's forward P/E (7.4x) undercuts KR's (12.8x), with higher dividend yield (3.5% vs. 2.0%). YTD, KR outperforms (+15% vs. +1.6%). Risks include unit volume pressure and mix shifts; strengths lie in loyalty (ACI 49.8M members) and eCommerce paths to profitability. Sentiment favors KR's guidance stability.
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Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron AI favors KR with 65% probability over the next 12 months, citing superior scale, eCommerce momentum toward profitability, robust FY2026 EPS growth guidance ($5.10-$5.30), and stronger YTD trend strength despite a revenue miss. ACI offers value via lower valuation and dividends but trails in stability and outlook conviction.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ACI is a Hold and KR is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ACI’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileKR’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- ACI’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- KR’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ACI’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while KR’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ACI’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 4 bearish.
- KR’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ACI (@Food Retail) experienced а +2.04% price change this week, while KR (@Food Retail) price change was +0.57% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Food Retail industry was -0.87%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.32%, and the average quarterly price growth was +0.23%.
Reported Earning Dates
ACI is expected to report earnings on Jul 28, 2026.
KR is expected to report earnings on Jun 11, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Food Retail (-0.87% weekly)The food retail industry includes companies that sell food, beverage and household products. Items sold include grocery, gourmet food, fresh produce, and frozen food. Kroger Co., George Weston Ltd., Grocery Outlet Holding Corp., and Sprouts Farmers Markets, Inc. are examples of major food retailers. While e-commerce companies like Amazon have increasingly been ramping-up offerings in the food retail space, several traditional players have also been expanding their online presence to stand their ground against rising competition.
| ACI | KR | ACI / KR | |
| Capitalization | 8.17B | 41.2B | 20% |
| EBITDA | 3.4B | 5.76B | 59% |
| Gain YTD | -2.009 | 7.434 | -27% |
| P/E Ratio | 41.27 | 43.37 | 95% |
| Revenue | 83.2B | 148B | 56% |
| Total Cash | 199M | 4.58B | 4% |
| Total Debt | 15.3B | 24.7B | 62% |
ACI | KR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 59 | 73 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 22 Undervalued | 27 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 77 | 27 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 76 | 58 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 75 | 59 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 5 | 7 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ACI's Valuation (22) in the null industry is in the same range as KR (27) in the Food Retail industry. This means that ACI’s stock grew similarly to KR’s over the last 12 months.
KR's Profit vs Risk Rating (27) in the Food Retail industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ACI (77) in the null industry. This means that KR’s stock grew somewhat faster than ACI’s over the last 12 months.
KR's SMR Rating (58) in the Food Retail industry is in the same range as ACI (76) in the null industry. This means that KR’s stock grew similarly to ACI’s over the last 12 months.
KR's Price Growth Rating (59) in the Food Retail industry is in the same range as ACI (75) in the null industry. This means that KR’s stock grew similarly to ACI’s over the last 12 months.
ACI's P/E Growth Rating (5) in the null industry is in the same range as KR (7) in the Food Retail industry. This means that ACI’s stock grew similarly to KR’s over the last 12 months.
| ACI | KR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 65% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 66% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 49% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 58% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 61% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 54% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 57% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 53% | 4 days ago 48% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 4 days ago 60% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 42% | 2 days ago 44% |
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ACI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ACI has been loosely correlated with KR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 39% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ACI jumps, then KR could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ACI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACI | 100% | -0.18% | ||
| KR - ACI | 39% Loosely correlated | +0.83% | ||
| WMK - ACI | 38% Loosely correlated | +1.79% | ||
| IMKTA - ACI | 37% Loosely correlated | +0.94% | ||
| SFM - ACI | 31% Poorly correlated | -1.51% | ||
| NGVC - ACI | 25% Poorly correlated | +2.74% | ||
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