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ADBE vs ADSK
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Adobe Inc. (ADBE) vs. Autodesk Inc. (ADSK) Stock Comparison
1. Key Takeaways
- Both ADBE and ADSK are profitable software leaders, but their recent price paths have diverged sharply.
- Adobe has been pressured by artificial intelligence (AI) disruption concerns and multiple analyst downgrades, leaving the stock down roughly 30% year to date.
- Autodesk has shown stronger recent momentum, gaining over 10% in the past month, supported by resilient demand in its core design markets.
- Adobe trades at a notably lower forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple, while Autodesk commands a premium valuation backed by faster, more consistent growth.
- Both companies are expanding their AI offerings, but investors are weighing Adobe's AI-monetization questions against Autodesk's more "AI-resistant" positioning.
2. Introduction
Adobe Inc. and Autodesk Inc. are two of the most established names in design and creative software, yet they occupy distinct niches. Adobe dominates content creation, document workflows, and digital marketing, while Autodesk leads in architecture, engineering, construction, and manufacturing design tools. For traders and long-term investors, comparing these two stocks offers a useful lens on how the market is pricing AI disruption, recurring-revenue quality, and relative valuation. Recent weeks have highlighted a clear divergence in sentiment, making this a timely stock comparison for anyone assessing market positioning within the application-software sector.
3. ADBE Overview and Recent Performance
ADBE — Adobe Inc. — generates the bulk of its revenue from subscription-based creative software such as Photoshop, Illustrator, Premiere Pro, and Acrobat, alongside its Digital Experience marketing cloud. In its most recent fiscal quarter, Adobe reported revenue of approximately $6.76 billion, up about 13% year over year, with non-GAAP (non-Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) earnings per share of $6.13. The company also reported that AI-related annual recurring revenue (ARR, a measure of subscription income) surpassed $650 million, growing more than 150% annually.
Despite solid operating results, Adobe's stock has underperformed in recent months, falling roughly 27–30% year to date. The decline reflects investor anxiety that generative AI tools could erode Adobe's pricing power, along with slower growth in net new ARR and remaining performance obligations. Recent analyst downgrades and a planned CEO transition, with Anil Chakravarthy set to succeed Shantanu Narayen, have added to near-term uncertainty. The stock now trades at a forward P/E ratio around 9–10, well below many software peers.
4. ADSK Overview and Recent Performance
ADSK — Autodesk Inc. — provides design and engineering software led by AutoCAD, Revit, and Fusion, serving architecture, engineering, construction, manufacturing, and media customers. In its latest reported quarter, Autodesk posted revenue of roughly $2.05 billion, an increase of about 16% year over year, with non-GAAP earnings per share of $3.30 that exceeded consensus estimates. Non-GAAP operating margin expanded to about 41%.
Autodesk's stock has shown more resilient recent performance, rising over 10% in the past month even though it remains down roughly 18–22% year to date. Sentiment has been supported by a strategic push into industrial operations through its approximately $3.6 billion acquisition of MaintainX, a maintenance-management software provider. Analysts have generally framed Autodesk's entrenched design tools as relatively resistant to direct AI substitution, helping sustain a premium valuation of roughly 30 times trailing earnings.
5. Trending AI Robots
For traders seeking a data-driven edge in evaluating names like Adobe and Autodesk, Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page offers a curated view of algorithmic trading strategies. Tickeron maintains hundreds of AI trading bots that collectively monitor and trade thousands of different tickers, each with its own trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance history, statistics, and basket of symbols. Because not every bot suits every market regime, only the strongest and most relevant performers are featured in the Trending AI Robots section. These bots range across short-term and longer-horizon approaches, providing a useful reference for comparing relative momentum and positioning. Explore the Trending AI Robots page to see which strategies are currently adapting best to evolving market conditions.
6. Head-to-Head Comparison
While both companies monetize through subscriptions, their growth drivers differ meaningfully. Adobe's franchise is more exposed to consumer and creative spending, where low-cost AI alternatives are intensifying competition and pressuring its valuation. Autodesk's demand is tied more closely to construction, infrastructure, and manufacturing workflows, markets with higher switching costs and slower disruption cycles.
On relative performance, Autodesk has held up better recently, aided by margin expansion and its industrial-operations expansion. Adobe, by contrast, has faced the sharper de-rating, with multiple analyst downgrades and slower forward-booking growth. Valuation reflects this gap: Adobe trades near a single-digit forward P/E, while Autodesk carries a materially higher multiple. Risk profiles also differ — Adobe's risk centers on AI disruption of creative workflows, whereas Autodesk's risks include execution around its large acquisition and potential cyclical softness in construction spending.
7. Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, recent momentum, stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would currently lean toward Autodesk. Autodesk's steadier recent uptrend, margin gains, and more resilient demand narrative provide a more favorable technical and fundamental backdrop. Adobe's depressed valuation could attract contrarian interest, but its weaker momentum and unresolved AI-monetization questions introduce more near-term uncertainty. The AI assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive, reflecting a modestly stronger current setup for Autodesk while acknowledging that a stabilization in Adobe's forward metrics could narrow the gap.
8. Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ADBE is a Hold and ADSK is a Hold.
ADBE in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026
ADBE moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 24 of 36 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ADBE as a result. In 53 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ADBE just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where ADBE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 42 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Following a +4.70% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ADBE advanced for three days, in 192 of 312 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 10-day moving average for ADBE crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 18, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 12 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ADBE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
ADBE broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for ADBE entered a downward trend on October 07, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ADBE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 70 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (9.142) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.734). P/E Ratio (15.089) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.183). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.558) is also within normal values, averaging (2.824). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.074) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.923) is also within normal values, averaging (71.128).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ADBE’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.
ADSK's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ADSK turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where ADSK's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 05, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ADSK as a result. In 52 of 83 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
ADSK moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ADSK crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
Following a +2.37% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ADSK advanced for three days, in 209 of 328 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ADSK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
ADSK broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for ADSK entered a downward trend on October 08, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ADSK’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 83 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (15.751) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.734). P/E Ratio (32.812) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.183). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.797) is also within normal values, averaging (2.824). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.074) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.024) is also within normal values, averaging (71.128).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ADSK’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.
ADBE | ADSK | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 23 | 30 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 70 Overvalued | 83 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 19 | 19 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | 43 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 77 | 88 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ADBE's Valuation (70) in the Packaged Software industry is in the same range as ADSK (83). This means that ADBE’s stock grew similarly to ADSK’s over the last 12 months.
ADBE's Profit vs Risk Rating (100) in the Packaged Software industry is in the same range as ADSK (100). This means that ADBE’s stock grew similarly to ADSK’s over the last 12 months.
ADBE's SMR Rating (19) in the Packaged Software industry is in the same range as ADSK (19). This means that ADBE’s stock grew similarly to ADSK’s over the last 12 months.
ADSK's Price Growth Rating (43) in the Packaged Software industry is in the same range as ADBE (47). This means that ADSK’s stock grew similarly to ADBE’s over the last 12 months.
ADBE's P/E Growth Rating (77) in the Packaged Software industry is in the same range as ADSK (88). This means that ADBE’s stock grew similarly to ADSK’s over the last 12 months.
| ADBE | ADSK | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 59% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 75% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 63% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 68% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 64% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 62% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 64% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 70% | 10 days ago 68% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 77% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 79% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ADBE’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while ADSK’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- ADBE’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- ADSK’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ADBE’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ADSK’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ADBE’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- ADSK’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ADBE (@Packaged Software) experienced а +7.50% price change this week, while ADSK (@Packaged Software) price change was +3.99% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Packaged Software industry was -0.42%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.95%, and the average quarterly price growth was +4.32%.
Reported Earning Dates
ADBE is expected to report earnings on Dec 09, 2026.
ADSK is expected to report earnings on Nov 24, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Packaged Software (-0.42% weekly)Packaged software comprises multiple software programs bundled together and sold as a group. For example, Microsoft Office includes multiple applications such as Excel, Word, and PowerPoint. In some cases, buying a bundled product is cheaper than purchasing each item individually[s20] . Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corp. and Adobe are some major American packaged software makers.
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ADBE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ADBE has been closely correlated with WDAY. These tickers have moved in lockstep 75% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ADBE jumps, then WDAY could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ADBE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADBE | 100% | +6.07% | ||
| WDAY - ADBE | 75% Closely correlated | +3.46% | ||
| ADSK - ADBE | 71% Closely correlated | +4.13% | ||
| INTU - ADBE | 70% Closely correlated | +5.75% | ||
| FRSH - ADBE | 66% Closely correlated | +3.34% | ||
| VERX - ADBE | 66% Loosely correlated | +4.43% | ||
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ADSK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ADSK has been closely correlated with ADBE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 72% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ADSK jumps, then ADBE could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ADSK | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADSK | 100% | +4.13% | ||
| ADBE - ADSK | 72% Closely correlated | +6.07% | ||
| BSY - ADSK | 71% Closely correlated | +2.74% | ||
| APPF - ADSK | 68% Closely correlated | +0.06% | ||
| GWRE - ADSK | 67% Closely correlated | +4.26% | ||
| PCOR - ADSK | 67% Closely correlated | +2.27% | ||
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