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ADSK vs PANW
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Autodesk (ADSK) vs. Palo Alto Networks (PANW) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Divergent momentum: PANW has surged nearly 95% year-to-date, hitting fresh 52-week highs, while ADSK has declined roughly 26% over the same period, reflecting sharply different market sentiment toward cybersecurity versus design software.
- Both companies deliver strong fundamentals: ADSK posted 18% revenue growth in its most recent quarter with 97% recurring revenue; PANW reported 31% revenue growth with its AI-driven Cortex XSIAM platform doubling revenue year-over-year.
- Valuation contrast is stark: ADSK trades at approximately 32 times trailing earnings, while PANW trades at roughly 340 times trailing earnings, reflecting the market's premium pricing for cybersecurity growth stories.
- AI narratives differ: Autodesk is embedding AI into design and engineering workflows as a specialized platform play; Palo Alto Networks is positioned as a direct beneficiary of AI-driven cybersecurity demand and data center buildouts.
- Risk profiles diverge: ADSK faces near-term disruption from a sales reorganization and acquisition integration; PANW faces valuation compression risk and potential growth normalization after an exceptional run.
Introduction
Investors evaluating technology stocks in mid-2026 face a tale of two trajectories. ADSK, the design-software pioneer behind AutoCAD and a suite of architecture, engineering, and construction tools, and PANW, the cybersecurity giant that has become synonymous with enterprise platform consolidation, occupy different corners of the technology sector. Yet both are vying for investor capital in a market increasingly shaped by artificial intelligence. This comparison examines how these two industry leaders stack up across key dimensions — from recent stock performance and business fundamentals to growth drivers and market positioning — offering a clear, data-driven perspective for traders and long-term investors alike.
ADSK Overview and Recent Performance
Autodesk (ADSK) is a global leader in 3D design, engineering, construction, and manufacturing software. Its flagship products — including AutoCAD, Revit, and Fusion — serve professionals across the AECO (Architecture, Engineering, Construction, and Operations) and manufacturing industries. The company has been executing a long-term transition toward cloud-based platforms and AI-enhanced workflows, positioning itself as a specialized AI player in geometry-rich, engineering-validated design environments.
In recent weeks, ADSK shares have shown signs of stabilization after a challenging first half of 2026. The stock traded around $218, having recovered meaningfully from its 52-week low near $185 but remaining well below its 52-week high of approximately $329. The year-to-date decline of roughly 26% reflects investor concerns about the company's ongoing sales force reorganization, which management has acknowledged could create near-term disruption in billings and new subscription growth. However, underlying business momentum remains robust. In its most recent quarter, Autodesk delivered revenue of $1.93 billion — an 18.4% year-over-year increase — and raised full-year guidance. Recurring revenue now accounts for 97% of total revenue, and the net revenue retention rate continues to exceed 110% in constant currency, signaling durable customer relationships. The planned acquisition of MaintainX, an asset operations platform with over $135 million in annualized recurring revenue, underscores Autodesk's ambition to extend its reach across the full asset lifecycle.
PANW Overview and Recent Performance
Palo Alto Networks (PANW) has established itself as the dominant force in enterprise cybersecurity, offering a broad platform that spans network security, cloud security, and AI-driven security operations. The company's "platformization" strategy — consolidating multiple security functions under one architecture — has driven exceptional financial results and attracted a wave of analyst upgrades in recent months.
The stock has been on a remarkable run, gaining approximately 95% year-to-date and recently touching a 52-week high of $368.80. Over the trailing one-month period alone, PANW has risen approximately 27%, making it one of the strongest performers among large-cap technology stocks. The catalyst behind this surge is multifaceted: fiscal Q3 2026 results delivered a clean beat on both revenue ($3.0 billion versus the $2.94 billion consensus) and EPS ($0.85 versus $0.79 expected), representing 31% year-over-year revenue growth. Perhaps most significantly, the company's AI-native Cortex XSIAM platform doubled its revenue year-over-year, validating PANW's positioning at the intersection of cybersecurity and artificial intelligence. Wall Street has responded enthusiastically — Capital One upgraded the stock to "Overweight" with a $421 price target, Citi raised its target to $400, and the consensus analyst rating sits at "Strong Buy." Government cybersecurity warnings and accelerating enterprise AI infrastructure spending have provided additional tailwinds.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
While both ADSK and PANW belong to the broader technology sector, their differences are more instructive than their similarities for investors weighing relative positioning.
Business Model and Revenue Quality: Autodesk generates nearly all of its revenue from recurring subscriptions, with design software deeply embedded in professional workflows across construction and manufacturing — industries that move at more deliberate, cyclical paces. Palo Alto Networks also benefits from recurring enterprise contracts, but its growth is amplified by the urgency and non-discretionary nature of cybersecurity spending, particularly amid escalating geopolitical cyber threats.
Growth Trajectory: PANW's 31% revenue growth significantly outpaces ADSK's 18%, and its AI-security narrative has proven more immediately monetizable. ADSK's AI story is arguably more nascent — focused on embedding generative and agentic AI into complex industrial workflows — and may take longer to translate into accelerated revenue.
Valuation and Market Sentiment: The valuation gap is extraordinary. ADSK trades at roughly 32 times trailing earnings with a forward P/E (price-to-earnings ratio) near 16, reflecting a market that is pricing in measured, steady growth. PANW trades at approximately 340 times trailing earnings — a premium that reflects extraordinary confidence in sustained hypergrowth. By comparison, PANW's price-to-sales ratio of roughly 31x is actually lower than cybersecurity peer CrowdStrike's (~44x), suggesting the premium is sector-wide rather than company-specific.
Risk Factors: For ADSK, the primary risks center on execution — the ongoing sales reorganization, the MaintainX integration, and potential macroeconomic softness affecting construction and manufacturing spending. For PANW, the dominant risk is valuation: at these multiples, even minor growth deceleration or margin disappointment could trigger sharp repricing. Additionally, cybersecurity spending surges tied to government warnings can prove episodic.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, momentum signals, and catalyst density, Tickeron's AI-driven analytical framework would likely favor PANW in the current environment. The stock exhibits stronger directional conviction, with sustained upward price momentum supported by fundamental beats, a clear AI monetization path, and a growing chorus of analyst upgrades. The trend in PANW is both established and recently reaffirmed — characteristics that algorithmic models typically weight favorably. That said, ADSK presents a different kind of opportunity: a fundamentally sound business trading at a fraction of PANW's valuation multiple, with a recovery narrative that could gain traction if the sales reorganization concludes smoothly and the MaintainX acquisition delivers on its strategic promise. In probabilistic terms, PANW currently shows stronger near-term trend alignment, while ADSK may hold greater appeal for strategies oriented toward mean reversion and value recognition over a longer horizon.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ADSK is a Buy and PANW is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ADSK’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whilePANW’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- ADSK’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- PANW’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ADSK’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PANW’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ADSK’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 2 bearish.
- PANW’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ADSK (@Packaged Software) experienced а -3.94% price change this week, while PANW (@Computer Communications) price change was -9.73% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Packaged Software industry was -4.81%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.32%, and the average quarterly price growth was -13.41%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Computer Communications industry was -5.08%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.35%, and the average quarterly price growth was -4.81%.
Reported Earning Dates
ADSK is expected to report earnings on Aug 27, 2026.
PANW is expected to report earnings on Aug 24, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Packaged Software (-4.81% weekly)Packaged software comprises multiple software programs bundled together and sold as a group. For example, Microsoft Office includes multiple applications such as Excel, Word, and PowerPoint. In some cases, buying a bundled product is cheaper than purchasing each item individually[s20] . Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corp. and Adobe are some major American packaged software makers.
@Computer Communications (-5.08% weekly)Computer communications industry develops technology that allows computing devices to exchange data with each other using connections/data links between nodes. Common types of computer network include Cloud (IAN), Internet, Wide (WAN, Local (LAN)/Wireless(WLAN) etc. The industry is an ever-more important part of technology, and is set to become even bigger as the Internet of Things (IoT) rapidly forays into the various aspects of our lives. Cisco Systems, Inc., Palo Alto Networks, Inc. and Arista Networks, Inc., Fortinet, Inc. are some of the major computer communications companies.
| ADSK | PANW | ADSK / PANW | |
| Capitalization | 44.3B | 264B | 17% |
| EBITDA | 2.33B | 1.99B | 117% |
| Gain YTD | -29.141 | 75.782 | -38% |
| P/E Ratio | 30.62 | 281.56 | 11% |
| Revenue | 7.51B | 10.6B | 71% |
| Total Cash | 2.92B | 3.11B | 94% |
| Total Debt | 2.72B | 2.07B | 132% |
ADSK | PANW | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 73 Overvalued | 89 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 9 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 20 | 86 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 60 | 1 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 94 | 8 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ADSK's Valuation (73) in the Packaged Software industry is in the same range as PANW (89) in the Computer Communications industry. This means that ADSK’s stock grew similarly to PANW’s over the last 12 months.
PANW's Profit vs Risk Rating (9) in the Computer Communications industry is significantly better than the same rating for ADSK (100) in the Packaged Software industry. This means that PANW’s stock grew significantly faster than ADSK’s over the last 12 months.
ADSK's SMR Rating (20) in the Packaged Software industry is significantly better than the same rating for PANW (86) in the Computer Communications industry. This means that ADSK’s stock grew significantly faster than PANW’s over the last 12 months.
PANW's Price Growth Rating (1) in the Computer Communications industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ADSK (60) in the Packaged Software industry. This means that PANW’s stock grew somewhat faster than ADSK’s over the last 12 months.
PANW's P/E Growth Rating (8) in the Computer Communications industry is significantly better than the same rating for ADSK (94) in the Packaged Software industry. This means that PANW’s stock grew significantly faster than ADSK’s over the last 12 months.
| ADSK | PANW | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 68% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 86% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 68% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 63% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 64% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 60% | 3 days ago 76% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 62% | 12 days ago 78% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 65% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 74% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 71% |
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PANW and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PANW has been closely correlated with CRWD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PANW jumps, then CRWD could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PANW | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PANW | 100% | -0.57% | ||
| CRWD - PANW | 77% Closely correlated | -0.08% | ||
| FTNT - PANW | 63% Loosely correlated | +0.55% | ||
| OKTA - PANW | 63% Loosely correlated | +1.76% | ||
| NOW - PANW | 62% Loosely correlated | +7.44% | ||
| ADSK - PANW | 60% Loosely correlated | +2.19% | ||
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