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ADTN vs EXTR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? ADTRAN Holdings (ADTN) vs. Extreme Networks (EXTR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ADTN reported Q1 2026 revenue of $286.1 million, up 15.5% year-over-year, with non-GAAP operating margin expanding to 6.9%.
- EXTR delivered Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings of $0.26 per share, beating estimates, and revenue of $316.9 million, up from the prior year.
- Both stocks have shown strong YTD gains, with ADTN up around 80% and EXTR up over 40%, amid telecom and networking sector momentum.
- ADTN benefits from broadband expansion and fiber demand, while EXTR gains from AI-driven cloud networking adoption.
- Recent market activity reflects volatility, with both exhibiting robust relative performance versus broader indices.
- Tickeron's AI tools highlight networking stocks' potential in trending sectors like semiconductors and cloud infrastructure.
Introduction
In the competitive telecommunications and networking sector, ADTN and EXTR stand out as key players providing essential infrastructure for broadband, fiber optics, and cloud-based solutions. This stock comparison analyzes their recent performance, business drivers, and market positioning to aid traders and investors navigating current trends in AI networking, fiber deployment, and edge computing. Day traders may focus on short-term momentum, while long-term investors evaluate growth catalysts like BEAD funding and hyperscaler demand. Understanding their relative strengths helps in portfolio allocation amid sector volatility.
ADTN Overview and Recent Performance
ADTN, or ADTRAN Holdings, Inc., is a global provider of open, disaggregated networking and communications platforms focused on broadband access, optical networking, and fiber solutions. Headquartered in Huntsville, Alabama, it serves service providers, enterprises, and governments with products like optical line terminals and subscriber solutions.
In recent market activity, ADTN has delivered impressive gains, with YTD returns around 80% and 1-year performance exceeding 95%, outperforming the S&P 500. Q1 2026 results showed revenue of $286.1 million, a 15.5% year-over-year increase, driven by 24% growth in optical networking and 22% in subscriber solutions. U.S. revenue surged 42% to $146.2 million, fueled by BEAD (Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment) funding and hyperscaler connectivity demand. Non-GAAP operating margin improved to 6.9%, up 300 basis points (a measure of percentage points for margins), reflecting operating leverage. Sentiment has been positive on fiber infrastructure tailwinds and European vendor displacement, though shares faced pressure post-earnings amid acquisition talks.
EXTR Overview and Recent Performance
EXTR, or Extreme Networks, Inc., develops AI-driven cloud networking solutions, including wired/wireless infrastructure, SD-WAN (software-defined wide area network), and management platforms like ExtremeCloud IQ. Based in Morrisville, North Carolina, it targets enterprises in hospitality, education, healthcare, and manufacturing.
Recent weeks have seen EXTR stock surge, with YTD gains over 40% and 1-year returns around 68%, bolstered by sector momentum. Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings beat expectations at $0.26 per share (versus $0.24 estimated) and revenue of $316.9 million, up from $284.5 million year-over-year. Growth stemmed from customer adoption of Extreme Platform ONE for AI networking and cloud services, with SaaS annual recurring revenue at $236 million. The stock has climbed over 50% in the past month on strong quarterly results and AI platform traction, though it remains sensitive to supply chain dynamics and competition. Positive sentiment centers on visibility into fiscal 2026 revenue of $1.25–$1.27 billion.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
ADTN and EXTR both operate in networking but diverge in focus: ADTN emphasizes broadband/fiber access for carriers (revenue ~$1.1B TTM), while EXTR targets enterprise cloud/AI platforms (~$1.1B+ annual run-rate). Growth drivers contrast—ADTN leverages government fiber funding and optical demand; EXTR rides AI/data center waves via SaaS expansion.
Recent momentum favors EXTR with steadier monthly gains (~50%), versus ADTN's volatility post-earnings. Risk profiles differ: ADTN exposure to carrier capex cycles and M&A (mergers and acquisitions) adds uncertainty; EXTR faces competition but benefits from recurring revenue (81% ROE). Sector overlap in telecom supports both amid 5G/cloud shifts, but EXTR shows stronger profitability margins, trading at higher market cap (~$3B vs. $1.2B).
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently leans toward EXTR due to consistent earnings beats, AI platform momentum, and higher profitability metrics like positive EPS and SaaS growth. Its relative stability and enterprise focus position it better for sustained trends in cloud networking, with fiscal 2026 guidance signaling upside. ADTN offers compelling fiber catalysts but trails in margin expansion and steadier performance. AI favors EXTR with ~60% probabilistic edge based on trend consistency and catalysts.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ADTN is a Hold and EXTR is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ADTN’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileEXTR’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- ADTN’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- EXTR’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ADTN’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while EXTR’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ADTN’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- EXTR’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
ADTN (@Telecommunications Equipment) experienced а -1.70% price change this week, while EXTR (@Telecommunications Equipment) price change was -3.82% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Telecommunications Equipment industry was +0.35%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +16.83%, and the average quarterly price growth was +62.29%.
Reported Earning Dates
ADTN is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
EXTR is expected to report earnings on Aug 12, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Telecommunications Equipment (+0.35% weekly)The Telecommunications Equipment industry produces voice and data communications equipment, which includes fiber optic delivery products, digital signal processors, high-speed voice, data and video delivery. Additionally, satellite systems, global positioning systems, wireless data systems, personal communications equipment, telephone handsets and payload equipment for satellites also fall into this category. Apple Inc., QUALCOMM Incorporated and Nokia are major global players in this segment.
| ADTN | EXTR | ADTN / EXTR | |
| Capitalization | 1.22B | 2.98B | 41% |
| EBITDA | 95.6M | 62.3M | 153% |
| Gain YTD | 73.073 | 36.967 | 198% |
| P/E Ratio | N/A | 190.04 | - |
| Revenue | 1.12B | 1.25B | 90% |
| Total Cash | 122M | 210M | 58% |
| Total Debt | 243M | 236M | 103% |
ADTN | EXTR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 71 | 19 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 93 Overvalued | 90 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 64 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 94 | 43 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 37 | 37 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 21 | 86 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 48 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
EXTR's Valuation (90) in the Computer Communications industry is in the same range as ADTN (93) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry. This means that EXTR’s stock grew similarly to ADTN’s over the last 12 months.
EXTR's Profit vs Risk Rating (64) in the Computer Communications industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ADTN (100) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry. This means that EXTR’s stock grew somewhat faster than ADTN’s over the last 12 months.
EXTR's SMR Rating (43) in the Computer Communications industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ADTN (94) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry. This means that EXTR’s stock grew somewhat faster than ADTN’s over the last 12 months.
EXTR's Price Growth Rating (37) in the Computer Communications industry is in the same range as ADTN (37) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry. This means that EXTR’s stock grew similarly to ADTN’s over the last 12 months.
ADTN's P/E Growth Rating (21) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry is somewhat better than the same rating for EXTR (86) in the Computer Communications industry. This means that ADTN’s stock grew somewhat faster than EXTR’s over the last 12 months.
| ADTN | EXTR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 89% | 1 day ago 56% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 68% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 81% | 1 day ago 71% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 76% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 76% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 75% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 77% | 6 days ago 73% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 60% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 80% |
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ADTN and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ADTN has been loosely correlated with INSG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 46% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ADTN jumps, then INSG could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ADTN | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADTN | 100% | -4.08% | ||
| INSG - ADTN | 46% Loosely correlated | -6.66% | ||
| AVNW - ADTN | 44% Loosely correlated | -3.28% | ||
| HLIT - ADTN | 39% Loosely correlated | +0.90% | ||
| UI - ADTN | 38% Loosely correlated | -4.75% | ||
| EXTR - ADTN | 37% Loosely correlated | -6.19% | ||
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EXTR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, EXTR has been loosely correlated with CSCO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 47% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if EXTR jumps, then CSCO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To EXTR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXTR | 100% | -6.19% | ||
| CSCO - EXTR | 47% Loosely correlated | +0.58% | ||
| ITRN - EXTR | 41% Loosely correlated | -2.85% | ||
| HLIT - EXTR | 38% Loosely correlated | +0.90% | ||
| ADTN - EXTR | 38% Loosely correlated | -4.08% | ||
| NTGR - EXTR | 38% Loosely correlated | -2.95% | ||
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