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AEM vs GOLD
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) vs. Barrick Gold (GOLD) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AEM is a higher-margin, pure-play gold producer concentrated in lower-risk jurisdictions, while GOLD pairs a larger gold portfolio with a growing copper business.
- Both stocks have benefited from elevated bullion prices, but AEM has posted more consistent cost discipline and a net-cash balance sheet in recent quarters.
- GOLD carries a distinct catalyst pipeline, including a planned North American initial public offering (IPO) and a copper-growth strategy, alongside higher jurisdictional complexity.
- Relative performance has favored AEM in recent weeks as the company delivered record free cash flow and shareholder returns.
- For investors, the choice largely comes down to a preference for focused gold exposure versus gold-plus-copper diversification and restructuring-driven upside.
Introduction
Agnico Eagle Mines and Barrick Gold are two of the largest publicly traded gold producers, yet they offer meaningfully different risk-and-return profiles. This stock comparison is relevant for investors weighing pure precious-metals exposure against a diversified mining business, as well as for traders tracking relative performance within the gold sector. Both companies are leveraged to the same underlying gold price, so their diverging operational execution, cost structures, and strategic catalysts help explain why one name may outperform the other over a given period. Understanding these contrasts in market positioning can support more informed decisions for both long-term holders and shorter-term traders.
AEM Overview and Recent Performance
AEM (Agnico Eagle Mines Limited) is a Canadian-headquartered gold miner operating primarily in Canada, Mexico, Finland, and Australia, with roughly 15 years of reserves and about 3.4 million ounces sold in 2025. Recent market activity has been constructive, with shares rebounding sharply in recent weeks as gold prices recovered and the company reported forecast-beating results. In its latest quarter, Agnico Eagle generated record quarterly free cash flow of roughly $1.3 billion, driven by a realized gold price above $4,400 per ounce and disciplined cost control, while returning a record $625 million to shareholders through dividends and buybacks.
Sentiment has been supported by a strengthened balance sheet that sits in a net-cash position, a dividend increase, and an upgraded credit rating. Growth catalysts include the Hope Bay project investment decision and progress at Detour Lake, Canadian Malartic's Odyssey mine, and Upper Beaver. A rock movement at the Barnat pit trimmed the upper end of production expectations, keeping full-year output near the lower end of guidance, but the company maintained its cost guidance.
GOLD Overview and Recent Performance
GOLD (Barrick Gold Corporation) is one of the world's largest gold producers, with a portfolio spanning Nevada, Africa, and Latin America, plus a meaningful copper franchise centered on the Lumwana expansion in Zambia and the Reko Diq project. Recent results showed sharply higher earnings and cash flow, with first-quarter net earnings more than tripling year over year on a realized gold price near $4,800 per ounce and a 67% revenue increase. The company authorized a $3 billion share buyback and introduced a dividend policy targeting a 50% payout of attributable free cash flow.
Momentum has been shaped by a turnaround narrative and a planned IPO of its North American assets, expected by year-end, which advanced after a $1.95 billion agreement with Newmont resolved disputes over the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture. At the same time, all-in sustaining costs (AISC, the full cost of producing an ounce of gold including sustaining capital) have trended higher, reflecting fuel costs, lower grades, and royalties, while operational footprint in higher-risk jurisdictions adds complexity.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies diverge most clearly on business mix and risk profile. Agnico Eagle is a more focused gold producer concentrated in developed, lower-risk jurisdictions, which has translated into lower AISC, a net-cash balance sheet, and consistent capital returns. Barrick is more diversified, adding copper exposure that ties a portion of its revenue to industrial and electrification demand rather than solely to bullion, but it also operates in more complex regions including Mali, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Pakistan.
On growth drivers, Agnico Eagle leans on organic project development and exploration within its existing footprint, while Barrick pairs organic growth at Nevada's Fourmile project with large copper projects and a corporate restructuring. In terms of momentum, Agnico Eagle's relative performance has been steadier in recent weeks, supported by record cash generation. Barrick's sentiment is more event-driven, hinging on the IPO execution, copper-project delivery, and cost normalization. Sector exposure is similar on the gold side, but Barrick's copper stake makes it a somewhat different animal for portfolio construction.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward Agnico Eagle (AEM) in the current environment. Its combination of lower and more stable all-in sustaining costs, a net-cash balance sheet, consistent free cash flow, and steadier recent price trend provides a more favorable trend-consistency and stability profile. Barrick Gold (GOLD) retains meaningful upside potential tied to its North American IPO and copper growth, but those catalysts carry greater execution and timing uncertainty, alongside higher costs and jurisdictional risk. The verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: Agnico Eagle's positioning appears more consistent for trend-following models today, while Barrick may appeal to strategies emphasizing catalysts and valuation-driven re-rating potential.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AEM is a Hold and GOLD is a Hold.
AEM in -9.68% downward trend, declining for three consecutive days on October 30, 2026
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where AEM declined for three days, in 165 of 237 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 29, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on AEM as a result. In 51 of 75 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for AEM turned negative on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 52 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 33 of the 52 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 63%.
AEM moved below its 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for AEM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
The Aroon Indicator for AEM entered a downward trend on October 30, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The 50-day moving average for AEM moved above the 200-day moving average on October 06, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a +4.22% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AEM advanced for three days, in 252 of 323 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
AEM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 67, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AEM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 85 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 100 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.961) is normal, around the industry mean (1.936). P/E Ratio (14.273) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-12.175). AEM's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (30.116) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (2.614). Dividend Yield (0.011) settles around the average of (0.373) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.766) is also within normal values, averaging (7.321).
GOLD sees its 50-day moving average cross bearishly below its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for GOLD moved below the 200-day moving average on October 12, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day moving average for GOLD crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 02, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GOLD declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
GOLD broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for GOLD entered a downward trend on November 03, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where GOLD's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 18 of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 46 of 57 cases where GOLD's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on GOLD as a result. In 66 of 79 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GOLD just turned positive on October 27, 2026. Looking at past instances where GOLD's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Following a +2.81% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GOLD advanced for three days, in 260 of 329 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 46 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. GOLD’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 67 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 68 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. GOLD’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 87 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.302) is normal, around the industry mean (3.199). P/E Ratio (12.579) is within average values for comparable stocks, (6.873). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.513) is also within normal values, averaging (0.809). Dividend Yield (0.089) settles around the average of (8.657) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.050) is also within normal values, averaging (16.899).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
AEM | GOLD | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 16 | 59 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 100 Overvalued | 87 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 43 | 68 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 43 | 67 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 56 | 49 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 85 | 96 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 46 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
GOLD's Valuation (87) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as AEM (100) in the null industry. This means that GOLD’s stock grew similarly to AEM’s over the last 12 months.
AEM's Profit vs Risk Rating (43) in the null industry is in the same range as GOLD (68) in the Precious Metals industry. This means that AEM’s stock grew similarly to GOLD’s over the last 12 months.
AEM's SMR Rating (43) in the null industry is in the same range as GOLD (67) in the Precious Metals industry. This means that AEM’s stock grew similarly to GOLD’s over the last 12 months.
GOLD's Price Growth Rating (49) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as AEM (56) in the null industry. This means that GOLD’s stock grew similarly to AEM’s over the last 12 months.
AEM's P/E Growth Rating (85) in the null industry is in the same range as GOLD (96) in the Precious Metals industry. This means that AEM’s stock grew similarly to GOLD’s over the last 12 months.
| AEM | GOLD | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 64% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 81% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 84% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 70% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 76% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 73% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 78% | 9 days ago 79% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 70% | 6 days ago 76% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 79% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 69% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AEM’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while GOLD’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- AEM’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- GOLD’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AEM’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while GOLD’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AEM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- GOLD’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
AEM (@Precious Metals) experienced а -7.43% price change this week, while GOLD (@Investment Banks/Brokers) price change was -1.11% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Precious Metals industry was -1.81%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -8.63%, and the average quarterly price growth was -15.10%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Banks/Brokers industry was -5.10%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -19.08%, and the average quarterly price growth was -23.58%.
Reported Earning Dates
AEM is expected to report earnings on Feb 18, 2027.
GOLD is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Precious Metals (-1.81% weekly)The Precious Metals industry is engaged in exploring/mining metals that are considered to be rare and/or have a high economic value. Popular precious metals include gold, platinum and silver - all three of which are largely used in jewelry, art and coinage alongwith having some industrial uses as well. Precious metals used in industrial processes include iridium, (used in specialty alloys), and palladium ( used in electronics and chemical applications). Historically, precious metals have traded at much higher prices than common industrial metals. Newmont Goldcorp Corp, Barrick Gold Corp and Freeport-McMoRan are few of the major precious metals producing companies in the U.S.
@Investment Banks/Brokers (-5.10% weekly)These banks specialize in underwriting (helping companies with debt financing or equity issuances), IPOs, facilitating mergers and other corporate reorganizations and acting as a broker or financial advisor for institutions. They might also trade securities on their own accounts. Investment banks potentially thrive on expanding its network of clients, since that could help them increase profits. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and CME Group Inc are some of the largest investment banking companies.
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