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AEP vs DUK
Which Stock Would AI Choose? American Electric Power (AEP) vs. Duke Energy (DUK) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AEP has outperformed DUK year-to-date with gains around 20% versus 11%, reflecting stronger momentum in recent market activity.
- Both stocks trade at similar trailing P/E ratios (price-to-earnings) near 20x, indicating comparable valuations.
- DUK offers a higher dividend yield of 3.3% compared to AEP's 2.8%, appealing to income-focused investors.
- DUK exhibits lower volatility with a beta of 0.45 versus AEP's 0.57, suiting conservative portfolios.
- Analyst price targets suggest modest upside for both, with AEP at $141 and DUK at $139.
Introduction
This AEP vs. DUK stock comparison examines two leading electric utilities in a market favoring defensive sectors amid interest rate fluctuations and rising energy demand. Both companies provide stable dividends and regulated operations, making them attractive for income investors and those seeking lower volatility. Traders may eye relative performance shifts driven by infrastructure investments and regulatory updates. In recent weeks, divergent momentum has highlighted trade-offs in growth potential versus yield stability, aiding decisions on portfolio allocation in the utilities sector.
AEP Overview and Recent Performance
American Electric Power (AEP), a major utility serving over 5 million customers across 11 states in the Midwest and South, focuses on electricity generation, transmission, and distribution. Its vertically integrated model benefits from long-term contracts and infrastructure investments. In recent market activity, AEP shares have climbed around 20% year-to-date and 5% over the past month, trading near $137 within a 52-week range of $97-$138. This momentum stems from strong quarterly results, including Q4 2025 EPS of $1.19 beating estimates, dividend declarations, and optimism around load growth from data centers and manufacturing. Sentiment has improved on infrastructure tailwinds, though valuations appear stretched with a trailing P/E of 20.6x and ROE (return on equity) of 12.5%.
DUK Overview and Recent Performance
Duke Energy (DUK) operates as one of the largest U.S. utilities, delivering power to 8.4 million customers primarily in the Carolinas, Florida, and Midwest through generation, transmission, and distribution. Its diversified portfolio includes natural gas and renewables. Recently, DUK shares have advanced about 11% year-to-date, trading around $129 in a 52-week range of $111-$134, with more modest one-month gains amid sector rotation. Key drivers include regulatory approvals for grid upgrades projecting billions in customer savings and Q4 2025 EPS of $1.50 topping forecasts. Performance reflects steady demand but lags peers due to higher debt/equity at 172%, a trailing P/E of 20.4x, and ROE of 9.7%.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both AEP and DUK operate regulated utility models centered on electric power, but AEP emphasizes transmission infrastructure while DUK leans into customer-facing distribution and renewables. Growth drivers include electrification and data center demand, with AEP projecting 56 GW incremental load by 2030. Recent momentum favors AEP, up 30% over 12 months versus DUK’s 7%, though DUK’s larger market cap ($100B vs. $74B) signals scale advantages. Risk factors like interest rate sensitivity and regulation loom larger for debt-heavy balance sheets (DUK 172% debt/equity vs. AEP 154%). Market sentiment tilts positive for both, with "Buy" ratings, but AEP shows superior ROE and stability via higher beta trade-off.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI models currently favor AEP over DUK based on stronger trend consistency, year-to-date outperformance, and elevated ROE amid infrastructure catalysts. While DUK provides superior yield and lower volatility, AEP’s relative positioning suggests higher probability of near-term gains in a risk-on utility environment.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AEP is a Buy and DUK is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AEP’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileDUK’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- AEP’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- DUK’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AEP’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while DUK’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AEP’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- DUK’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
AEP (@Electric Utilities) experienced а +0.07% price change this week, while DUK (@Electric Utilities) price change was +0.60% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electric Utilities industry was +0.73%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.38%, and the average quarterly price growth was +8.66%.
Reported Earning Dates
AEP is expected to report earnings on Jul 23, 2026.
DUK is expected to report earnings on Aug 11, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electric Utilities (+0.73% weekly)Electric utilities companies generate, transmit and distribute electricity to businesses/offices and residences. Companies may be owned by the government or investors or public shareholders, or a combination thereof. The industry also includes firms that buy and sell electricity. Companies in this industry typically require significant investments in infrastructure. Many firms in this industry pay substantial and regular dividends to shareholders. However, changes in interest rates (and their impact on debt burdens), natural disasters and changing commodity prices could be factors affecting energy utilities’ profit margins. NextEra Energy, Inc., Duke Energy Corporation, Dominion Energy Inc. and Southern Company are among U.S. electric utilities companies with the largest market capitalizations.
| AEP | DUK | AEP / DUK | |
| Capitalization | 70.3B | 97.4B | 72% |
| EBITDA | 9.4B | 17.6B | 53% |
| Gain YTD | 13.778 | 8.458 | 163% |
| P/E Ratio | 19.12 | 19.23 | 99% |
| Revenue | 22.4B | 33.2B | 67% |
| Total Cash | 516M | 2.14B | 24% |
| Total Debt | 51.8B | 91.2B | 57% |
AEP | DUK | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 6 | 17 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 52 Fair valued | 44 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 21 | 28 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 65 | 72 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 49 | 52 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 57 | 53 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
DUK's Valuation (44) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as AEP (52). This means that DUK’s stock grew similarly to AEP’s over the last 12 months.
AEP's Profit vs Risk Rating (21) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as DUK (28). This means that AEP’s stock grew similarly to DUK’s over the last 12 months.
AEP's SMR Rating (65) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as DUK (72). This means that AEP’s stock grew similarly to DUK’s over the last 12 months.
AEP's Price Growth Rating (49) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as DUK (52). This means that AEP’s stock grew similarly to DUK’s over the last 12 months.
DUK's P/E Growth Rating (53) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as AEP (57). This means that DUK’s stock grew similarly to AEP’s over the last 12 months.
| AEP | DUK | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 72% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 47% | 3 days ago 31% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 55% | 3 days ago 50% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 56% | 3 days ago 49% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 54% | 3 days ago 49% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 39% | 3 days ago 47% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 59% | 5 days ago 51% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 14 days ago 46% | 14 days ago 41% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 53% | 3 days ago 53% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 35% | 3 days ago 28% |
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AEP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AEP has been closely correlated with LNT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 72% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AEP jumps, then LNT could also see price increases.
DUK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DUK has been closely correlated with SO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 83% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if DUK jumps, then SO could also see price increases.