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AFRM vs RIOT
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Affirm Holdings (AFRM) vs. Riot Platforms (RIOT) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AFRM has delivered a strong 45.8% gain over the past month, outpacing broader market indices amid positive sentiment ahead of its upcoming quarterly earnings.
- RIOT shows robust year-to-date performance of 46.41%, fueled by Bitcoin production and a pivot to AI data centers with recent revenue beats.
- AFRM's market cap stands at approximately $22 billion with recent profitability (TTM EPS of $0.81), contrasting RIOT's $7 billion cap and ongoing net losses.
- Both stocks face sector-specific risks: interest rate sensitivity for AFRM's lending model and cryptocurrency volatility for RIOT.
- Recent momentum favors AFRM in short-term trends, while RIOT benefits from AI infrastructure catalysts.
Introduction
This stock comparison pits AFRM, a leader in buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) financing, against RIOT, a Bitcoin mining firm expanding into AI data centers. Both represent high-growth, high-volatility plays in fintech and digital assets, appealing to momentum traders and investors eyeing tech-driven sectors. In recent market activity, they've shown divergent paths influenced by earnings anticipation, sector shifts, and macroeconomic factors like interest rates and cryptocurrency prices. Traders analyzing relative performance and market positioning will find value in understanding their business models, recent behaviors, and potential trade-offs.
AFRM Overview and Recent Performance
Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) operates a BNPL platform, enabling consumers to split purchases into interest-free or low-interest installments through partnerships with merchants. In recent weeks, the stock has surged about 45.8% over the past month, trading around $66.81 with a market cap near $22 billion. This momentum stems from improved profitability—TTM revenue of $3.72 billion and net income of $282 million—alongside optimism for upcoming Q3 earnings on May 7, where EPS is projected at $0.17, a sharp year-over-year increase. Sentiment has shifted positively due to revenue growth (32.7%) and operating margin improvements, though high debt-to-equity (258.87%) and a beta of 3.72 signal volatility tied to consumer spending and rates.
RIOT Overview and Recent Performance
Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT) focuses on Bitcoin mining and has pivoted toward high-performance computing for AI data centers. The stock trades near $18.55, with a $7 billion market cap and year-to-date gains of 46.41%. Recent Q1 2026 results showed revenue of $167.2 million—exceeding estimates— including $33.2 million from data centers, alongside 1,473 Bitcoin mined, though a $500 million net loss arose from Bitcoin mark-to-market adjustments. Shares jumped post-earnings on an expanded AMD deal for 50 MW capacity, boosting sentiment around diversification beyond crypto volatility. Performance reflects sensitivity to Bitcoin prices and AI infrastructure demand.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
AFRM’s lending model drives growth via consumer credit expansion, contrasting RIOT’s asset-heavy mining and AI infrastructure play. AFRM benefits from stable BNPL adoption and profitability, with TTM ROE (return on equity) at 8.92%, while RIOT leverages Bitcoin holdings and data center revenue for higher upside potential amid AI demand. Recent momentum favors AFRM’s short-term surge, but RIOT’s YTD edge highlights crypto recovery. Risks differ: AFRM faces credit losses and rate hikes, RIOT battles energy costs and digital asset swings. Sector exposure positions AFRM in fintech stability versus RIOT’s high-beta tech/crypto blend, with market sentiment tilting toward RIOT’s diversification catalysts.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors RIOT with moderate conviction, based on trend consistency in recent earnings beats, AI data center catalysts like the AMD expansion, and stronger relative YTD positioning amid high-growth sector tailwinds. While AFRM offers stability through profitability, RIOT’s momentum and diversification suggest higher probabilistic upside in volatile markets.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AFRM is a Hold and RIOT is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AFRM’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileRIOT’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- AFRM’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- RIOT’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AFRM’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while RIOT’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AFRM’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- RIOT’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
AFRM (@Savings Banks) experienced а +4.02% price change this week, while RIOT (@Investment Banks/Brokers) price change was +7.91% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Savings Banks industry was +2.80%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.34%, and the average quarterly price growth was -7.61%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Banks/Brokers industry was +1.59%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.54%, and the average quarterly price growth was -11.85%.
Reported Earning Dates
AFRM is expected to report earnings on Aug 20, 2026.
RIOT is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Savings Banks (+2.80% weekly)A savings bank primary function is to take deposits and paying interest on those deposits. Originating in Europe during the 18th century, these banks were generally introduced to incentivize people of all stripes to save money and park them with banks. By the 1990s, the internet ushered in online savings banks that allowed savers to deposit/transact with banks digitally, without requiring to visit a branch office. Savings banks have potentially encouraged lower-income population to save and have access to a financial institution to earn interest on their money. New York Community Bancorp, Inc, Webster Financial Corporation, Washington Federal, Inc. are examples of savings banks.
@Investment Banks/Brokers (+1.59% weekly)These banks specialize in underwriting (helping companies with debt financing or equity issuances), IPOs, facilitating mergers and other corporate reorganizations and acting as a broker or financial advisor for institutions. They might also trade securities on their own accounts. Investment banks potentially thrive on expanding its network of clients, since that could help them increase profits. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and CME Group Inc are some of the largest investment banking companies.
| AFRM | RIOT | AFRM / RIOT | |
| Capitalization | 22.2B | 10.1B | 220% |
| EBITDA | 1.12B | -476.51M | -234% |
| Gain YTD | -11.098 | 110.024 | -10% |
| P/E Ratio | 60.15 | 27.24 | 221% |
| Revenue | 3.97B | 653M | 608% |
| Total Cash | 2.48B | 206M | 1,204% |
| Total Debt | 9.09B | 877M | 1,037% |
RIOT | ||
|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 71 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 91 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 95 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 98 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 36 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 38 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
| AFRM | RIOT | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 82% | 3 days ago 89% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 80% | 3 days ago 90% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 85% | 3 days ago 87% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 85% | 3 days ago 90% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 86% | 3 days ago 87% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 87% | 3 days ago 88% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 17 days ago 82% | 3 days ago 90% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 86% | 5 days ago 87% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 83% | 3 days ago 88% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 83% | 3 days ago 90% |
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AFRM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AFRM has been closely correlated with COIN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 81% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AFRM jumps, then COIN could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AFRM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFRM | 100% | -0.48% | ||
| COIN - AFRM | 81% Closely correlated | -0.41% | ||
| CLSK - AFRM | 71% Closely correlated | +1.92% | ||
| RIOT - AFRM | 70% Closely correlated | +1.80% | ||
| UPST - AFRM | 62% Loosely correlated | -4.06% | ||
| NET - AFRM | 62% Loosely correlated | +0.46% | ||
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