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AFRM vs UPST
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Affirm Holdings (AFRM) vs. Upstart Holdings (UPST) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both AFRM and UPST are consumer-lending fintechs, but they operate in very different segments: Affirm focuses on buy now, pay later (BNPL) checkout financing, while Upstart is an AI-driven loan-origination marketplace.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: AFRM. Affirm currently shows more consistent trend strength, larger scale, and profitability, while Upstart faces deteriorating credit conditions and recently lowered its full-year outlook.
- Affirm is roughly flat to slightly negative on a year-to-date basis with a market capitalization near $22 billion; Upstart is down over 50% year to date with a market cap around $2 billion.
- Both companies reported year-over-year revenue growth above 30% in their latest quarters, but investor reactions diverged sharply based on credit quality and forward guidance.
- For more context on each name, explore AFRM Major News, AFRM Today's Price Move, UPST Major News, and UPST Today's Price Move.
- To see how AI systems are currently positioning across these and other tickers, visit the Trending AI Robots page.
Introduction
Affirm Holdings (AFRM) and Upstart Holdings (UPST) are two of the most closely watched artificial-intelligence-adjacent consumer lenders in the U.S. market. Both use data-driven underwriting to extend credit, and both are highly sensitive to the same macro forces — interest rates, inflation, and consumer credit health. Yet their business models, scale, and recent market positioning differ meaningfully. This comparison is relevant for growth-oriented investors and active traders evaluating which fintech lender offers the stronger risk-reward profile in the current environment, where credit deterioration and funding costs have become the central themes driving share prices.
AFRM Overview and Recent Performance
Affirm is a leading provider of buy now, pay later (BNPL) financing, letting shoppers split purchases into installment payments at checkout. In its most recent quarter, the company posted gross merchandise volume (GMV) — the total dollar value of purchases processed — of about $14.4 billion, up roughly 34% year over year, while revenue rose approximately 35% to $1.26 billion. Net income roughly doubled to about $164 million, and management raised its full-year GMV outlook above $65.25 billion.
Despite the operational strength, the stock has traded lower in recent weeks. Investor concern centers on credit quality: Affirm's 30-day delinquency rate on monthly loans edged up to about 2.9%, modestly above the prior-year level. Rising funding costs tied to Treasury yields also pressured sentiment, and several analysts trimmed price targets even while maintaining Buy ratings. Affirm's shares sit below their recent 20-day and 60-day moving averages and remain well off their 52-week high.
UPST Overview and Recent Performance
Upstart operates a cloud-based AI lending platform that connects borrowers with banks and credit unions, using machine-learning models rather than traditional credit scores to assess risk. In its latest quarter, revenue grew roughly 34% year over year to about $370.5 million, loan originations rose about 44% to $4.1 billion, and contribution profit reached a record $218 million, up 48%. The company also achieved its first quarter of positive contribution margin in secured products such as auto and home loans.
However, Upstart simultaneously cut its full-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) guidance, citing worsening borrower health and interest rates. The company's Upstart Macro Index (UMI), a gauge of how macroeconomic conditions affect default risk, has been rising, signaling a more challenging credit backdrop. Upstart shares have lost more than half their value year to date and trade far below their January high, reflecting cautious guidance and heavy selling pressure.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies diverge on several key dimensions. In business model, Affirm is a consumer-facing BNPL brand embedded at merchant checkouts, while Upstart is a business-to-business loan origination marketplace serving banks and credit unions. On scale, Affirm's quarterly GMV and revenue are several times larger than Upstart's, giving it greater revenue diversification across merchants and card partnerships. On growth drivers, Affirm leans on merchant relationships and its Affirm Card, whereas Upstart's runway depends on model accuracy gains and expansion into secured lending such as auto and home loans.
The sharpest contrast lies in market positioning and sentiment. Affirm remains profitable and near its year-to-date starting point, with a broad analyst consensus of Strong Buy. Upstart, by contrast, has fallen more than 50% year to date, cut guidance, and carries a more divided analyst view split between Buy and Hold. In risk factors, both face credit deterioration, but Upstart's balance-sheet exposure to loan losses and its reliance on macro-sensitive borrower health introduce comparatively more near-term uncertainty. Sector exposure is similar — both are interest-rate-sensitive consumer-credit fintechs — yet Affirm's current trend consistency and profitability give it a more stable relative footing.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, scale, profitability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would currently favor AFRM over UPST. Affirm exhibits steadier momentum, a larger and more diversified revenue base, and consistent profitability, even as both names contend with rising delinquencies and funding costs. Upstart's stronger technology-driven long-term narrative is offset, for now, by its recent guidance cut, its elevated macro sensitivity, and a much deeper drawdown from highs. The verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: Affirm's relative stability and broader analyst support make it the more favored name in the current environment, though both stocks remain sensitive to shifts in credit conditions and interest rates.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AFRM is a Buy and UPST is a StrongBuy.
AFRM's Stochastic Oscillator remains in oversold zone for 1 day
Be on the lookout for a price bounce soon.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a +2.97% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AFRM advanced for three days, in 240 of 293 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for AFRM moved out of overbought territory on October 12, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 38 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 33 of the 38 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 87%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on AFRM as a result. In 68 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 83%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for AFRM turned negative on November 05, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 36 of the 43 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 84%.
AFRM moved below its 50-day moving average on November 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for AFRM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AFRM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 85%.
AFRM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for AFRM entered a downward trend on November 10, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. AFRM’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 98 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.191) is normal, around the industry mean (3.902). P/E Ratio (11.825) is within average values for comparable stocks, (6.401). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (8.155) is also within normal values, averaging (3.918). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.189) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.862) is also within normal values, averaging (5.901).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AFRM’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 80, placing this stock worse than average.
UPST in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026
UPST may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 27 of 29 cases where UPST's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
Following a +9.71% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UPST advanced for three days, in 235 of 279 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 30, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on UPST as a result. In 78 of 84 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for UPST turned negative on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 37 of the 44 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 84%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UPST declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
The Aroon Indicator for UPST entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 75 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. UPST’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 76 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.671) is normal, around the industry mean (3.902). UPST has a moderately high P/E Ratio (34.746) as compared to the industry average of (6.401). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.040) is also within normal values, averaging (3.918). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.189) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.160) is also within normal values, averaging (5.901).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. UPST’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 80, placing this stock worse than average.
AFRM | UPST | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 55 | 13 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 98 Overvalued | 76 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 23 | 35 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 61 | 75 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 97 | 96 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
UPST's Valuation (76) in the null industry is in the same range as AFRM (98). This means that UPST’s stock grew similarly to AFRM’s over the last 12 months.
UPST's Profit vs Risk Rating (100) in the null industry is in the same range as AFRM (100). This means that UPST’s stock grew similarly to AFRM’s over the last 12 months.
AFRM's SMR Rating (23) in the null industry is in the same range as UPST (35). This means that AFRM’s stock grew similarly to UPST’s over the last 12 months.
AFRM's Price Growth Rating (61) in the null industry is in the same range as UPST (75). This means that AFRM’s stock grew similarly to UPST’s over the last 12 months.
UPST's P/E Growth Rating (96) in the null industry is in the same range as AFRM (97). This means that UPST’s stock grew similarly to AFRM’s over the last 12 months.
| AFRM | UPST | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 87% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 86% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 90% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 84% | 2 days ago 84% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 85% | 2 days ago 90% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 85% | 2 days ago 88% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 14 days ago 82% | 8 days ago 84% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 85% | 6 days ago 90% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 90% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 90% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AFRM’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while UPST’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- AFRM’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- UPST’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AFRM’s TA Score shows that 2 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UPST’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AFRM’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 8 bearish.
- UPST’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
AFRM (@Savings Banks) experienced а -8.36% price change this week, while UPST (@Savings Banks) price change was -4.49% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Savings Banks industry was -5.24%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.57%, and the average quarterly price growth was -10.04%.
Reported Earning Dates
AFRM is expected to report earnings on Feb 11, 2027.
UPST is expected to report earnings on Feb 16, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Savings Banks (-5.24% weekly)A savings bank primary function is to take deposits and paying interest on those deposits. Originating in Europe during the 18th century, these banks were generally introduced to incentivize people of all stripes to save money and park them with banks. By the 1990s, the internet ushered in online savings banks that allowed savers to deposit/transact with banks digitally, without requiring to visit a branch office. Savings banks have potentially encouraged lower-income population to save and have access to a financial institution to earn interest on their money. New York Community Bancorp, Inc, Webster Financial Corporation, Washington Federal, Inc. are examples of savings banks.
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AFRM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AFRM has been closely correlated with COIN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 81% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AFRM jumps, then COIN could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AFRM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFRM | 100% | -3.06% | ||
| COIN - AFRM | 81% Closely correlated | -2.92% | ||
| UPST - AFRM | 72% Closely correlated | -8.27% | ||
| CLSK - AFRM | 71% Closely correlated | -4.92% | ||
| RIOT - AFRM | 70% Closely correlated | +2.38% | ||
| SOFI - AFRM | 65% Loosely correlated | -2.27% | ||
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