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AFRM vs UPST
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Affirm Holdings (AFRM) vs. Upstart Holdings (UPST) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AFRM shares have surged about 47% over the past month, driven by strong analyst endorsements, significantly outpacing the broader market.
- UPST boasts stronger year-to-date (YTD) gains at around 20%, reflecting optimism ahead of its upcoming earnings report.
- Both fintech firms operate in consumer lending but differ in models: AFRM focuses on buy-now-pay-later (BNPL), while UPST leverages AI for broader loan origination.
- AFRM's larger market cap of $22B dwarfs UPST's $3.3B, offering scale but higher absolute volatility.
- Recent momentum favors AFRM with a 59% one-year return versus UPST's 15%.
- Analyst price targets suggest upside for both, with AFRM at $79 average and UPST at $44.
Introduction
Both AFRM and UPST are prominent players in the fintech sector, capitalizing on digital lending innovations amid shifting interest rates and consumer spending trends. AFRM specializes in buy-now-pay-later services, while UPST employs artificial intelligence for loan approvals across personal and auto finance. Traders seeking exposure to high-growth fintechs and investors monitoring relative performance in volatile markets will find this stock comparison valuable for assessing momentum, risks, and positioning in recent market activity.
AFRM Overview and Recent Performance
Affirm Holdings (AFRM) provides a buy-now-pay-later platform, partnering with merchants like Amazon to offer flexible payment options without hidden fees. In recent weeks, AFRM shares have exhibited robust upward momentum, climbing approximately 47% over the past month to around $67 per share, with a market capitalization exceeding $22 billion. This surge stems from positive analyst coverage, including Morgan Stanley naming it a top pick for 2026, citing resilient private credit dynamics and potential catalysts like upcoming earnings. Year-to-date gains stand at nearly 10%, supported by gross merchandise volume (GMV) growth and revenue of $3.72 billion trailing twelve months (TTM), though elevated price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 83 reflects growth expectations amid fintech sector recovery.
UPST Overview and Recent Performance
Upstart Holdings (UPST) operates an AI-driven lending marketplace connecting borrowers and banks for personal loans, auto financing, and more, emphasizing credit risk assessment beyond traditional FICO scores. Recent market activity shows UPST trading near $35, with a market cap of about $3.3 billion. Shares have gained attention with YTD returns of 20%, outperforming AFRM on this measure, fueled by insider ownership signals and anticipation for Q1 earnings on May 6. Recent surges, including a 13% move, reflect improving sentiment, though one-year returns lag at 15%. TTM EPS of $0.45 and P/E around 77 underscore profitability progress but sensitivity to macroeconomic factors like loan volumes.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
AFRM and UPST both thrive in fintech lending but diverge in execution: AFRM originates and holds BNPL loans on its balance sheet, exposing it to credit risk (measured by net charge-offs, or NCO), while UPST acts as a SaaS-like platform, earning fees with lower direct exposure. Growth drivers include AFRM’s merchant partnerships boosting GMV and UPST’s AI models expanding into auto and home equity. Recent momentum tilts to AFRM with superior short-term gains, but UPST shows steadier YTD progress. Risks encompass interest rate sensitivity, regulatory scrutiny, and competition; AFRM’s scale provides resilience, yet its higher P/E signals premium valuation versus UPST’s relative affordability. Market sentiment favors both amid fintech rebound, with analyst upgrades prominent for AFRM.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI tools currently lean toward AFRM with higher probability of near-term outperformance, based on consistent upward trends in recent weeks, stronger one-year returns, and tangible catalysts like analyst endorsements. UPST remains compelling for longer horizons given YTD stability and earnings potential, though its smaller scale introduces greater volatility. Observable factors like relative momentum and sector positioning underpin this assessment.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AFRM is a Hold and UPST is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AFRM’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileUPST’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- AFRM’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- UPST’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AFRM’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UPST’s TA Score has 2 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AFRM’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- UPST’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 8 bearish.
Price Growth
AFRM (@Savings Banks) experienced а +4.02% price change this week, while UPST (@Savings Banks) price change was +2.56% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Savings Banks industry was +2.80%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.34%, and the average quarterly price growth was -7.61%.
Reported Earning Dates
AFRM is expected to report earnings on Aug 20, 2026.
UPST is expected to report earnings on Aug 11, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Savings Banks (+2.80% weekly)A savings bank primary function is to take deposits and paying interest on those deposits. Originating in Europe during the 18th century, these banks were generally introduced to incentivize people of all stripes to save money and park them with banks. By the 1990s, the internet ushered in online savings banks that allowed savers to deposit/transact with banks digitally, without requiring to visit a branch office. Savings banks have potentially encouraged lower-income population to save and have access to a financial institution to earn interest on their money. New York Community Bancorp, Inc, Webster Financial Corporation, Washington Federal, Inc. are examples of savings banks.
| AFRM | UPST | AFRM / UPST | |
| Capitalization | 22.2B | 2.92B | 761% |
| EBITDA | 1.12B | N/A | - |
| Gain YTD | -11.098 | -30.254 | 37% |
| P/E Ratio | 60.15 | 74.39 | 81% |
| Revenue | 3.97B | 1.12B | 355% |
| Total Cash | 2.48B | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 9.09B | 1.94B | 469% |
| AFRM | UPST | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 82% | 3 days ago 90% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 80% | 3 days ago 88% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 85% | 3 days ago 90% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 85% | 3 days ago 88% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 86% | 3 days ago 87% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 87% | 3 days ago 87% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 17 days ago 82% | 6 days ago 85% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 86% | 12 days ago 90% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 83% | 3 days ago 84% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 83% | 3 days ago 90% |
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AFRM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AFRM has been closely correlated with COIN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 81% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AFRM jumps, then COIN could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AFRM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFRM | 100% | -0.48% | ||
| COIN - AFRM | 81% Closely correlated | -0.41% | ||
| CLSK - AFRM | 71% Closely correlated | +1.92% | ||
| RIOT - AFRM | 70% Closely correlated | +1.80% | ||
| UPST - AFRM | 62% Loosely correlated | -4.06% | ||
| NET - AFRM | 62% Loosely correlated | +0.46% | ||
More | ||||
UPST and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UPST has been loosely correlated with AFRM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 62% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if UPST jumps, then AFRM could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To UPST | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPST | 100% | -4.06% | ||
| AFRM - UPST | 62% Loosely correlated | -0.48% | ||
| SOFI - UPST | 61% Loosely correlated | -0.54% | ||
| LC - UPST | 54% Loosely correlated | -1.04% | ||
| SYF - UPST | 50% Loosely correlated | +1.42% | ||
| OMF - UPST | 49% Loosely correlated | -0.02% | ||
More | ||||