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AIR vs TDG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AAR Corp (AIR) vs. TransDigm Group (TDG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AIR (AAR Corp) is a global aerospace and defense aftermarket services provider growing rapidly through acquisitions, including a $1.8 billion stake in MRO Holdings.
- TDG (TransDigm Group) is a large, highly profitable producer of proprietary aircraft components with industry-leading margins near 52%–53%.
- AIR has shown stronger recent share-price momentum, while TDG has traded below its 52-week high despite consistent earnings beats.
- The two businesses differ sharply in scale, profitability, and strategy: AIR is an expanding aftermarket services platform, while TDG is a high-margin, acquisition-driven components manufacturer.
- Both companies are leveraged to commercial aerospace recovery and defense demand, but their risk profiles diverge.
Introduction
Investors evaluating the aerospace and defense sector often weigh pure-play component manufacturers against diversified aftermarket service providers. This stock comparison examines AIR and TDG, two companies that generate revenue from the same end markets but with fundamentally different business models. AAR Corp (AIR) focuses on parts distribution, repair, and maintenance for commercial and government fleets, while TransDigm Group (TDG) designs and supplies highly engineered, proprietary aircraft components. Comparing their relative performance, growth drivers, and market positioning helps both long-term investors and active traders understand where opportunity and risk currently sit within this segment of the industrial economy.
AIR Overview and Recent Performance
AAR Corp is a global aerospace and defense aftermarket solutions company headquartered near Chicago, operating through parts supply, repair and engineering, integrated solutions, and expeditionary services segments. The company has been reshaping its portfolio toward a parts, repair, and software platform, supported by acquisitions including HAECO Americas and ADI. In its most recent reported quarter, AIR posted sales of roughly $918 million, up about 24% year over year, reflecting broad-based growth and deal contributions.
Recent market activity has favored AIR, with the stock delivering strong gains over the past year and trading near elevated levels on the back of a $1.8 billion agreement to acquire a 65% stake in MRO Holdings (MRO stands for maintenance, repair, and overhaul). This transaction, announced in recent weeks, is expected to significantly expand AAR's heavy-maintenance footprint. Sentiment has been reinforced by record cash generation, improving operating leverage, and a shift toward higher-margin government and component-repair work, though integration execution and a smaller market capitalization (~$4.5 billion) remain notable considerations.
TDG Overview and Recent Performance
TransDigm Group is a leading global designer, producer, and supplier of highly engineered aircraft components used on nearly all commercial and military aircraft in service. A defining characteristic is that roughly 90% of net sales come from proprietary products, with a large portion of earnings derived from aftermarket revenue, which supports exceptionally high margins. In its most recent quarter, TDG reported sales of about $2.74 billion, up approximately 22.5% year over year, and raised its full-year guidance to roughly $10.5 billion at the midpoint.
Despite consistent earnings beats, TDG's stock has underperformed its own recent history, trading well below its 52-week high and down modestly on a year-to-date basis as of recent weeks. Sentiment has been tempered by valuation concerns and by the company's debt-funded acquisition approach, including the $2.2 billion purchase of Jet Parts Engineering and Victor Sierra and a pending deal for Stellant Systems. Analysts have largely maintained Buy or Overweight ratings, with some describing the pullback as overdone, but the stock's relative momentum has lagged the broader market.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most striking contrast between AIR and TDG is profitability. TDG generates EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) margins above 52%, a reflection of proprietary products and aftermarket pricing power. AIR operates at a structurally lower margin, with adjusted operating margins near 10%, consistent with its services-heavy, labor-intensive business.
Scale and business model also differ. TDG's market capitalization is roughly fifteen times larger than AIR's, and its ~$10.5 billion revenue base dwarfs AAR's ~$3.3 billion. Growth drivers diverge too: AIR is expanding through transformative acquisitions and a mix shift toward software and higher-margin services, while TDG compounds through disciplined bolt-on M&A (mergers and acquisitions) and organic aftermarket demand tied to aircraft build rates at original equipment manufacturers, or OEMs.
Risk profiles are distinct. AIR carries integration risk from its rapid deal activity and sensitivity to airline maintenance budgets. TDG carries elevated financial leverage from debt-funded acquisitions and concentration in proprietary aftermarket pricing. In terms of recent momentum, AIR has led, while TDG's fundamentals have outpaced its share-price performance.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, stability, catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor AIR in the current environment. The stock's sustained upward trend, strong revenue growth, and transformative MRO Holdings catalyst suggest more consistent momentum than TDG, which has demonstrated robust fundamentals but softer price action and higher leverage. That said, TDG's superior margins and established analyst support indicate it remains well positioned over the longer term. The AI's preference is probabilistic rather than definitive, reflecting AIR's stronger recent relative performance rather than a judgment on either company's underlying quality.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AIR is a Hold and TDG is a StrongBuy.
AIR's RSI Indicator ascending out of oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for AIR moved out of oversold territory on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 22 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 20 of the 22 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 40 of 53 cases where AIR's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AIR just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where AIR's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
Following a +1.83% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AIR advanced for three days, in 253 of 343 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
AIR may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on AIR as a result. In 37 of 74 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
The 50-day moving average for AIR moved below the 200-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AIR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
The Aroon Indicator for AIR entered a downward trend on October 19, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 49 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.354) is normal, around the industry mean (4.854). P/E Ratio (20.418) is within average values for comparable stocks, (16.403). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.060) is also within normal values, averaging (2.564). Dividend Yield (0.003) settles around the average of (0.061) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.361) is also within normal values, averaging (18.330).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AIR’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
TDG in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026
TDG moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 30 of 39 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where TDG's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 8 of 19 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 42%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 12, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TDG as a result. In 62 of 94 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TDG just turned positive on September 23, 2026. Looking at past instances where TDG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Following a +0.33% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TDG advanced for three days, in 254 of 387 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 192 of 318 cases where TDG Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 60%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 7 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TDG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
TDG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 11 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: TDG's P/B Ratio (-6.364) is slightly lower than the industry average of (4.854). P/E Ratio (34.255) is within average values for comparable stocks, (16.403). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.942) is also within normal values, averaging (2.564). Dividend Yield (0.319) settles around the average of (0.061) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.258) is also within normal values, averaging (18.330).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 17 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TDG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 67 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
AIR | TDG | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 66 | 27 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 49 Fair valued | 11 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 42 | 34 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 62 | 17 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 63 | 58 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 96 | 67 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TDG's Valuation (11) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AIR (49). This means that TDG’s stock grew somewhat faster than AIR’s over the last 12 months.
TDG's Profit vs Risk Rating (34) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as AIR (42). This means that TDG’s stock grew similarly to AIR’s over the last 12 months.
TDG's SMR Rating (17) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AIR (62). This means that TDG’s stock grew somewhat faster than AIR’s over the last 12 months.
TDG's Price Growth Rating (58) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as AIR (63). This means that TDG’s stock grew similarly to AIR’s over the last 12 months.
TDG's P/E Growth Rating (67) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as AIR (96). This means that TDG’s stock grew similarly to AIR’s over the last 12 months.
| AIR | TDG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 90% | 2 days ago 42% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 51% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 66% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 81% | 1 day ago 68% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 64% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 64% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 74% | 3 days ago 66% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 9 days ago 54% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 90% | 1 day ago 49% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 60% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AIR’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while TDG’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- AIR’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- TDG’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AIR’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TDG’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AIR’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TDG’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
AIR (@Aerospace & Defense) experienced а -1.34% price change this week, while TDG (@Aerospace & Defense) price change was +0.66% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Aerospace & Defense industry was -3.31%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -17.03%, and the average quarterly price growth was -18.12%.
Reported Earning Dates
AIR is expected to report earnings on Jan 06, 2027.
TDG is expected to report earnings on Nov 11, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Aerospace & Defense (-3.31% weekly)Aerospace & Defense is one of largest industries in the U.S., mainly comprising the following areas: commercial airliners, military aircraft, missiles, space, and general aviation. Focused heavily on research & development, it is also one of the fastest growing industries. Military aircraft has the largest market share in the industry’s sales, followed by space systems, civil aircraft, and missiles. Aerospace exports, directly and indirectly, support more jobs than the export of any other commodity, according to a study by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin Corporation and General Electric Company are some of the most prominent players in this space.
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AIR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AIR has been loosely correlated with VSEC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 64% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if AIR jumps, then VSEC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AIR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIR | 100% | -2.98% | ||
| VSEC - AIR | 64% Loosely correlated | -3.59% | ||
| LOAR - AIR | 61% Loosely correlated | +3.02% | ||
| GE - AIR | 60% Loosely correlated | -0.79% | ||
| DCO - AIR | 59% Loosely correlated | -5.07% | ||
| CW - AIR | 58% Loosely correlated | -4.03% | ||
More | ||||
TDG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TDG has been loosely correlated with GE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 53% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if TDG jumps, then GE could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TDG | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TDG | 100% | +1.09% | ||
| GE - TDG | 53% Loosely correlated | -0.79% | ||
| HEI - TDG | 53% Loosely correlated | +0.57% | ||
| LOAR - TDG | 51% Loosely correlated | +3.02% | ||
| SARO - TDG | 48% Loosely correlated | +1.26% | ||
| AIR - TDG | 45% Loosely correlated | -2.98% | ||
More | ||||
| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| GQRE | 60.30 | 0.59 | +0.99% |
| Northern Trust Global Quality Real Estate ETF (GQRE) | |||
| FSMD | 49.97 | -0.18 | -0.36% |
| Fidelity Small-Mid Multifactor ETF (FSMD) | |||
| FLYD | 50.45 | -0.78 | -1.53% |
| MicroSectors Travel - 3x Inverse Leveraged ETN (FLYD) | |||
| XPND | 37.76 | -1.12 | -2.87% |
| First Trust Expanded Technology ETF (XPND) | |||
| RVER | 32.65 | -1.79 | -5.21% |
| Trenchless Fund ETF (RVER) | |||