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ALK vs UAL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Alaska Air Group (ALK) vs. United Airlines Holdings (UAL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- UAL holds a much larger market capitalization of $32.1 billion versus ALK's $5 billion, reflecting greater scale in the airline sector.
- Recent weeks have seen ALK volatile post-Q1 earnings, reporting $3.3 billion in revenue (up 5.2% year-over-year) but a wider loss, while UAL builds momentum ahead of its earnings.
- UAL trades at a lower P/E ratio (price-to-earnings ratio) of 9.7 compared to ALK's 52.5, indicating relatively cheaper valuation.
- Analyst targets suggest stronger upside for UAL (average $130) over ALK ($57.5), amid positive sentiment for UAL's outlook.
- Both face rising fuel costs from geopolitical tensions like Strait of Hormuz issues, prompting capacity cuts, but UAL demonstrates more resilience in recent trading.
- Year-to-date, UAL edges out with 11.6% gains versus ALK's mixed results around 13% amid volatility.
Introduction
Alaska Air Group (ALK) and United Airlines Holdings (UAL) represent key players in the highly competitive U.S. airline industry, both sensitive to fuel prices, travel demand, and economic cycles. This stock comparison analyzes their recent market positioning, performance drivers, and relative strengths amid volatile oil markets and capacity adjustments. Traders seeking sector exposure and investors evaluating airline peers will find value in understanding contrasts in scale, valuation, and momentum, particularly as geopolitical events influence jet fuel costs and premium travel trends.
ALK Overview and Recent Performance
Alaska Air Group (ALK), parent of Alaska Airlines and regional affiliate Horizon Air, focuses on West Coast routes, Hawaii, and intra-California markets, emphasizing efficiency in shorter-haul operations. In recent market activity, the stock has traded around $43.50, down from its 52-week high of $65.88, reflecting broader sector pressures. Q1 results showed revenue of $3.3 billion, beating estimates and up 5.2% year-over-year, but a wider-than-expected loss of $1.68 per share due to operational costs and fuel headwinds. Sentiment has shifted with volatility from rising crude prices tied to Strait of Hormuz tensions, leading to a recent 4% daily drop despite a 23% monthly gain earlier. Analysts maintain a Hold consensus, with price targets averaging $57.50, influenced by capacity discipline and merger speculation.
UAL Overview and Recent Performance
United Airlines Holdings (UAL), the parent of United Airlines, operates a vast network with major hubs in Chicago, Houston, and Denver, strong in domestic, transatlantic, and Pacific routes. Shares recently hovered near $98.90, within a 52-week range of $65.26 to $119.21. Anticipation builds for Q1 earnings, with forecasts of $14.45 billion in revenue and $1.09 adjusted EPS (earnings per share), supported by premium cabin demand. Recent performance reflects resilience, with year-to-date gains of 11.6% amid oil surges, though shares dipped slightly on merger rumors involving rivals. Geopolitical fuel risks have prompted capacity cuts of up to 3%, but positive analyst revisions (average target $130) bolster sentiment, highlighting UAL's scale advantages.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Business models differ markedly: ALK excels in regional efficiency with lower international exposure, while UAL leverages global hubs for premium international growth. Valuation favors UAL's lower P/E and higher profitability (5.7% margin vs. ALK's thinner results). Recent momentum tilts to UAL's steadier YTD gains and analyst optimism, contrasting ALK's earnings-driven dips. Risk factors include shared fuel sensitivity (UAL's higher debt/equity at 203%) and capacity reductions, but UAL's $12B cash buffer provides stability. Sector exposure amplifies contrasts—ALK's domestic focus limits upside from global recovery, while UAL benefits from transoceanic demand. Market sentiment positions UAL as more robust amid trade-offs in scale versus agility.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI models currently favor UAL over ALK, citing superior trend consistency, attractive valuation metrics, larger scale for absorbing fuel shocks, and stronger analyst catalysts ahead of earnings. While ALK offers regional niche potential, UAL's relative positioning and momentum suggest higher probability of outperformance in the near term, barring intensified sector downturns.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ALK is a Buy and UAL is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ALK’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileUAL’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- ALK’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- UAL’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ALK’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UAL’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ALK’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- UAL’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
ALK (@Airlines) experienced а +9.34% price change this week, while UAL (@Airlines) price change was +15.04% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Airlines industry was +5.15%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +8.93%, and the average quarterly price growth was +7.74%.
Reported Earning Dates
ALK is expected to report earnings on Jul 16, 2026.
UAL is expected to report earnings on Jul 15, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Airlines (+5.15% weekly)Airlines industry comprises passenger air transportation, including scheduled and non-scheduled routes. This can include charter airlines, as well as regular commuter ones. Discount pricing and the rise of low-cost carriers over recent decades have expanded the industry by making its services accessible to a much larger global population, compared to the older days when airline travel was a relative luxury for many people in the world. Delta Air Lines Inc., Southwest Airlines Co and United Continental Holdings, Inc. are some of the airlines with the largest stock market capitalizations in the U.S.
| ALK | UAL | ALK / UAL | |
| Capitalization | 6B | 44.2B | 14% |
| EBITDA | 1.11B | 5.83B | 19% |
| Gain YTD | 7.078 | 21.722 | 33% |
| P/E Ratio | 99.59 | 10.62 | 938% |
| Revenue | 14.4B | 60.5B | 24% |
| Total Cash | 1.77B | 14.2B | 12% |
| Total Debt | 6.67B | 31B | 22% |
ALK | UAL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 39 | 37 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 78 Overvalued | 85 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 35 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 90 | 37 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 41 | 5 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 2 | 19 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ALK's Valuation (78) in the Airlines industry is in the same range as UAL (85). This means that ALK’s stock grew similarly to UAL’s over the last 12 months.
UAL's Profit vs Risk Rating (35) in the Airlines industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ALK (100). This means that UAL’s stock grew somewhat faster than ALK’s over the last 12 months.
UAL's SMR Rating (37) in the Airlines industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ALK (90). This means that UAL’s stock grew somewhat faster than ALK’s over the last 12 months.
UAL's Price Growth Rating (5) in the Airlines industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ALK (41). This means that UAL’s stock grew somewhat faster than ALK’s over the last 12 months.
ALK's P/E Growth Rating (2) in the Airlines industry is in the same range as UAL (19). This means that ALK’s stock grew similarly to UAL’s over the last 12 months.
| ALK | UAL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 72% | 3 days ago 74% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 71% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 78% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 78% | 3 days ago 78% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 80% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 81% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 75% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 26 days ago 75% | 12 days ago 77% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 65% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 77% | 3 days ago 78% |
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ALK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ALK has been closely correlated with AAL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 72% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ALK jumps, then AAL could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ALK | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALK | 100% | +1.07% | ||
| AAL - ALK | 72% Closely correlated | +1.71% | ||
| SKYW - ALK | 72% Closely correlated | +1.04% | ||
| ALGT - ALK | 68% Closely correlated | +5.50% | ||
| SNCY - ALK | 61% Loosely correlated | N/A | ||
| ULCC - ALK | 60% Loosely correlated | -2.61% | ||
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UAL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UAL has been closely correlated with DAL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if UAL jumps, then DAL could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To UAL | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAL | 100% | +1.12% | ||
| DAL - UAL | 89% Closely correlated | +0.50% | ||
| AAL - UAL | 83% Closely correlated | +1.71% | ||
| SKYW - UAL | 77% Closely correlated | +1.04% | ||
| ALK - UAL | 76% Closely correlated | +1.07% | ||
| ALGT - UAL | 71% Closely correlated | +5.50% | ||
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