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AMD vs TSM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) vs. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Different roles in the same supply chain: AMD designs chips, while TSM (TSMC) manufactures them for nearly every major chip designer.
- Both delivered record results: AMD posted record 2025 revenue and earnings, while TSMC reported its eighth straight quarter of double-digit profit growth on AI demand.
- TSM offers higher profitability and a lower valuation relative to earnings, while AMD carries a richer multiple tied to its AI growth narrative.
- Recent sentiment has cooled: semiconductor stocks, including both names, have faced renewed pressure over AI spending and valuation concerns in recent weeks.
- Risk profiles differ: TSM carries geographic and geopolitical concentration risk, while AMD faces execution and competitive risk against larger AI rivals.
Introduction
Advanced Micro Devices and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company are two of the most closely watched names in the global semiconductor sector, yet they occupy very different positions within it. This stock comparison is relevant for investors and traders who want to understand how a chip designer and a chip manufacturer perform in the same AI-driven market environment. Both companies are direct beneficiaries of the artificial intelligence infrastructure buildout, but their business models, margins, growth drivers, and risk profiles diverge meaningfully. Comparing their relative performance and market positioning can help clarify which exposure — design or fabrication — better suits a given portfolio strategy.
AMD Overview and Recent Performance
AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) is a fabless semiconductor designer that develops central processing units (CPUs), graphics processing units (GPUs), and adaptive computing products. Its data center business, anchored by EPYC server processors and Instinct AI accelerators, has become the company's primary growth engine.
In its most recent quarterly report, AMD posted record revenue of roughly $10.3 billion, up about 34% year over year, with its data center segment rising nearly 40% to a record of about $5.4 billion. Full-year 2025 revenue reached a record of approximately $34.6 billion, and non-GAAP (non-Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) earnings per share (EPS) also set a record. Despite these results, AMD shares pulled back after the report, as forward revenue guidance came in below what some investors had hoped for given the scale of AI infrastructure spending.
In recent weeks, AMD has traded within a broader semiconductor pullback driven by concerns over AI-related financing costs, elevated valuations, and intensifying competition. Sentiment has been further shaped by the company's relatively high price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple, which leaves less room for disappointment. AMD's longer-term story remains tied to scaling its data center AI franchise and converting design wins into sustained revenue growth.
TSM Overview and Recent Performance
TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, commonly TSMC) is the world's largest dedicated semiconductor foundry. Rather than designing chips, TSMC manufactures them for customers including Apple, Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom, giving it a central position in the AI supply chain.
In its latest quarterly results, TSMC reported revenue of about $33.7 billion, up roughly 25.5% year over year, while net income climbed about 35%. Advanced nodes of 7 nanometers and below accounted for about 77% of wafer revenue, underscoring the company's leadership in cutting-edge manufacturing. Its high-performance computing (HPC) segment, which includes AI-related chips, remained the largest revenue contributor. For 2026, TSMC guided to significant capital expenditures of roughly $52 billion to $56 billion to expand capacity.
TSM shares rose strongly through 2025, and the company has been described by some analysts as a comparatively defensive way to gain AI exposure because it supplies most major chip designers regardless of which one wins share. In recent weeks, however, the stock has not been immune to the sector's valuation and sentiment pressures, though its lower forward earnings multiple and wider profitability have generally provided more cushion than peers.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two companies is structural: AMD is a designer that competes for share in CPUs and AI accelerators, while TSM is a manufacturer that benefits from demand across the entire industry. This gives TSM a diversified revenue base and higher gross margins, while AMD's returns depend more directly on winning specific design competitions and executing on its AI roadmap.
On growth, both are expanding quickly, but for different reasons. AMD's momentum rests on scaling its Instinct accelerators and EPYC CPUs into data centers, a higher-risk, higher-reward trajectory that explains its premium valuation. TSM's growth is driven by broad-based demand for advanced nodes, making it less dependent on any single customer or product cycle, though it remains highly exposed to Taiwan as a production hub — a geographic and geopolitical concentration risk.
From a valuation and margin standpoint, TSM currently trades at a lower forward P/E and sustains stronger profitability, while AMD commands a richer multiple reflecting investor optimism about its AI potential. In terms of recent momentum, both stocks have participated in the same sector-wide volatility, with sentiment swings tied to AI capital expenditure trends and financing concerns affecting them in parallel.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, stability of fundamentals, margin profile, and relative valuation, Tickeron's AI would likely tilt toward TSM in the current environment. TSM combines steadier, broader-based demand with higher profitability and a more conservative earnings multiple, characteristics that tend to rank favorably when market sentiment toward high-valuation AI names is cooling. AMD, by contrast, offers greater potential upside through its AI accelerator ambitions but also carries more execution and valuation risk. The verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: under conditions of strong, sustained risk appetite, AMD's higher-beta profile could regain favor, but the current balance of catalysts and stability appears to modestly favor TSM.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AMD is a Hold and TSM is a Hold.
Momentum Indicator for AMD turns negative, indicating new downward trend
AMD saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on October 08, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 79 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 64 of the 79 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 81%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for AMD moved out of overbought territory on October 08, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 31 of the 42 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 74%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for AMD turned negative on October 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 35 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 78%.
AMD moved below its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AMD declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 9 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
The 10-day moving average for AMD crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on September 17, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Following a +3.62% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AMD advanced for three days, in 244 of 319 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
AMD may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 193 of 248 cases where AMD Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 78%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 11 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AMD’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 69 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 90 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (12.550) is normal, around the industry mean (6.022). P/E Ratio (130.833) is within average values for comparable stocks, (20.769). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.619) is also within normal values, averaging (3.761). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.012) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (20.450) is also within normal values, averaging (45.794).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
TSM in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026
TSM moved below its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 33 of 44 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 12, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TSM as a result. In 62 of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for TSM turned negative on October 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 29 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 63%.
The 10-day moving average for TSM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TSM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
TSM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 05, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where TSM's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 17 of 23 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 9 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +2.78% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TSM advanced for three days, in 235 of 316 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 209 of 276 cases where TSM Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 76%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 42 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.337) is normal, around the industry mean (6.017). P/E Ratio (0.979) is within average values for comparable stocks, (20.775). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.859) is also within normal values, averaging (3.761). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.012) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (15.480) is also within normal values, averaging (45.794).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TSM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
AMD | TSM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 73 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 90 Overvalued | 42 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 11 | 8 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 69 | 26 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 39 | 48 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 51 | 97 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TSM's Valuation (42) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AMD (90). This means that TSM’s stock grew somewhat faster than AMD’s over the last 12 months.
TSM's Profit vs Risk Rating (8) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as AMD (11). This means that TSM’s stock grew similarly to AMD’s over the last 12 months.
TSM's SMR Rating (26) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AMD (69). This means that TSM’s stock grew somewhat faster than AMD’s over the last 12 months.
AMD's Price Growth Rating (39) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as TSM (48). This means that AMD’s stock grew similarly to TSM’s over the last 12 months.
AMD's P/E Growth Rating (51) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TSM (97). This means that AMD’s stock grew somewhat faster than TSM’s over the last 12 months.
| AMD | TSM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 74% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 78% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 75% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 63% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 75% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 64% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 23 days ago 76% | 4 days ago 74% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 76% | 9 days ago 61% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 62% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 76% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AMD’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while TSM’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- AMD’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TSM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AMD’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TSM’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AMD’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- TSM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
AMD (@Semiconductors) experienced а -2.26% price change this week, while TSM (@Semiconductors) price change was +1.43% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was -3.52%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -18.49%, and the average quarterly price growth was -11.79%.
Reported Earning Dates
AMD is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
TSM is expected to report earnings on Jan 21, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Semiconductors (-3.52% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
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TSM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TSM has been closely correlated with ASML. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TSM jumps, then ASML could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TSM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSM | 100% | +1.49% | ||
| ASML - TSM | 74% Closely correlated | +0.72% | ||
| LRCX - TSM | 73% Closely correlated | -0.02% | ||
| KLAC - TSM | 71% Closely correlated | -1.50% | ||
| AMAT - TSM | 71% Closely correlated | +0.44% | ||
| ASX - TSM | 70% Closely correlated | +2.52% | ||
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