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AMKR vs ARM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Amkor Technology (AMKR) vs. Arm Holdings (ARM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AMKR is a capital-intensive semiconductor packaging and test provider (an OSAT, or Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test company), while ARM is an asset-light chip architecture licensor expanding into data-center CPUs.
- Both names are leveraged to AI infrastructure, but from opposite ends of the value chain: AMKR physically packages chips, while ARM licenses designs and collects royalties.
- AMKR delivered record quarterly revenue with sharply expanding margins, yet its shares recently pulled back roughly 18% over three months after a strong run.
- ARM nearly doubled year-to-date and posted record results, but it trades at a far richer valuation, increasing sensitivity to any slowdown.
- The contrast in profitability is stark: ARM's non-GAAP (adjusted) operating margin sits near 49%, versus AMKR's roughly 10% operating margin.
- Key risks differ — AMKR faces communications-softness and heavy capital spending, while ARM faces smartphone weakness and supply constraints on its new AGI CPU.
Introduction
Semiconductor stocks have been a focal point for traders and investors through the current AI-infrastructure cycle, but not all chip companies are created equal. Comparing AMKR and ARM offers a useful study in two very different business models operating within the same broad technology theme. AMKR builds and tests physical semiconductors for others, while ARM licenses intellectual property (IP) and earns royalties on chips made using its designs. This stock comparison is relevant to investors weighing a cheaper, more cyclical industrial-style play against a premium, higher-margin growth story — and to anyone seeking to understand relative performance and market positioning across the AI value chain.
AMKR Overview and Recent Performance
Amkor Technology, Inc. (AMKR) is one of the world's largest providers of semiconductor packaging and test services, a business known as OSAT. The company has benefited in recent market activity from surging demand for advanced packaging tied to AI and high-performance computing (HPC). In its most recent quarter, AMKR reported record revenue of roughly $1.9 billion, up about 26% year over year, with earnings well above consensus. Gross margin expanded meaningfully as factory utilization improved, and management highlighted record results in computing and automotive/industrial end markets.
Sentiment has been further supported by a multi-year, roughly $1.5 billion agreement with NVIDIA to expand advanced packaging and test capacity in the U.S., as well as a 10-year manufacturing collaboration with TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company). Despite these catalysts, the shares have cooled from recent highs, with a three-month pullback driven by softer communications-segment guidance, an ongoing shift of System-in-Package (SiP) production to Vietnam, and concerns about a hefty 2026 capital-expenditure (capex) plan of $2.5–3 billion. On valuation, AMKR trades at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple well below the semiconductor industry average, reflecting its lower-margin, capital-intensive profile.
ARM Overview and Recent Performance
Arm Holdings plc (ARM) designs and licenses chip architecture — the underlying blueprint for central processing units (CPUs) — and earns revenue through licensing fees and royalties. Its technology is embedded in nearly all premium smartphones and, increasingly, in data-center and AI infrastructure. In its most recent fiscal year, ARM reported record revenue of about $4.9 billion, up 23% year over year, with data-center royalty revenue more than doubling. Licensing revenue also grew strongly, and management reported more than $2 billion of customer demand for its new AGI CPU (a processor purpose-built for "agentic AI" workloads) across the next two fiscal years.
ARM's shares have been among the strongest semiconductor performers, nearly doubling on the year, driven by enthusiasm for its pivot from smartphones into higher-value data-center CPUs. However, that enthusiasm has introduced volatility: the stock pulled back after management cautioned that supply constraints limit how much of its surging demand can be converted into near-term revenue, and that a softer smartphone market could pressure royalties. ARM's non-GAAP operating margin of about 49% underscores an asset-light model, but its elevated valuation — a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple far above peers — leaves less room for execution missteps.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most fundamental contrast between these two stocks is business model. AMKR operates an asset-heavy manufacturing business with single-digit-to-low-teens operating margins that require continuous, large-scale capex to add capacity. Its growth is tied to factory utilization, advanced-packaging adoption, and customer capacity commitments. ARM, by contrast, is asset-light, with licensing margins near 95% and minimal physical production — until its new CPU venture adds some manufacturing-related costs and supply-chain complexity.
On relative performance, both have delivered strong results, but their market positioning differs. AMKR appears cheaper on a price-to-sales basis and offers leverage to AI infrastructure through physical packaging demand, yet its communications exposure and heavy spending introduce cyclical risk. ARM commands a premium multiple and benefits from recurring, royalty-heavy economics and a dominant position in CPU architecture, but its valuation and dependence on smartphone royalties plus new-product execution create a higher bar. In sector exposure, AMKR spans computing, communications, automotive, and consumer end markets, while ARM is concentrated in compute IP with rising data-center weight. Both carry supply-chain sensitivities, but the nature of that risk — factory utilization and capacity for AMKR versus foundry capacity and component supply for ARM — is fundamentally different.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward AMKR in the current environment, reflecting its more consistent trend profile, improving margins, cheaper relative valuation, and a clearer path to near-term earnings through record revenue and capacity commitments from major customers. ARM's momentum and long-term AI optionality are compelling, but its stretched valuation, supply constraints, and smartphone headwinds introduce greater volatility and execution risk that a trend-following model would weigh carefully. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive: the AI's preference reflects trend consistency, stability, and relative positioning, and could shift as catalysts and market conditions evolve.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AMKR is a Hold and ARM is a Hold.
AMKR in downward trend: 10-day moving average moved below 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026
The 10-day moving average for AMKR crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 12 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 06, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on AMKR as a result. In 70 of 94 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for AMKR turned negative on October 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 36 of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 72%.
AMKR moved below its 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AMKR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where AMKR's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 22 of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 9 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +6.95% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AMKR advanced for three days, in 237 of 322 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
AMKR may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 156 of 213 cases where AMKR Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 73%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 48 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.336) is normal, around the industry mean (7.021). P/E Ratio (19.522) is within average values for comparable stocks, (95.827). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.180) is also within normal values, averaging (0.801). Dividend Yield (0.008) settles around the average of (0.008) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.548) is also within normal values, averaging (27.897).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 65 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. AMKR’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 73 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 76 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AMKR’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 71, placing this stock worse than average.
ARM's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for ARM entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 108 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 94 of the 108 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 87%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ARM as a result. In 38 of 49 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 78%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ARM turned negative on October 07, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 27 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 20 of the 27 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 74%.
ARM moved below its 50-day moving average on October 09, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ARM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 5 of 8 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ARM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where ARM's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 15 of 19 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 9 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +6.16% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ARM advanced for three days, in 174 of 202 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
ARM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. ARM’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ARM's P/B Ratio (28.041) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (6.538). ARM has a moderately high P/E Ratio (231.214) as compared to the industry average of (23.955). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.327) is also within normal values, averaging (3.761). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.011) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (50.761) is also within normal values, averaging (45.794).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ARM’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock worse than average.
AMKR | ||
|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 64 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 48 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 76 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 62 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 65 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 73 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
| AMKR | ARM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 79% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 89% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 78% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 74% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 77% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 82% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 21 days ago 74% | 21 days ago 86% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 72% | 11 days ago 80% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 84% | 2 days ago 82% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 87% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AMKR’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while ARM’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- AMKR’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- ARM’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AMKR’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ARM’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AMKR’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- ARM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
AMKR (@Electronic Production Equipment) experienced а -2.43% price change this week, while ARM (@Semiconductors) price change was -4.80% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was -10.99%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -23.67%, and the average quarterly price growth was -33.55%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was -8.11%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -19.82%, and the average quarterly price growth was -12.10%.
Reported Earning Dates
AMKR is expected to report earnings on Oct 26, 2026.
ARM is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronic Production Equipment (-10.99% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
@Semiconductors (-8.11% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
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ARM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ARM has been closely correlated with LRCX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ARM jumps, then LRCX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ARM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARM | 100% | +2.50% | ||
| LRCX - ARM | 74% Closely correlated | -1.00% | ||
| KLAC - ARM | 74% Closely correlated | +1.04% | ||
| AMAT - ARM | 73% Closely correlated | +0.98% | ||
| FORM - ARM | 73% Closely correlated | +4.16% | ||
| VECO - ARM | 66% Closely correlated | +4.69% | ||
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