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AON vs RYAN
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Aon plc (AON) vs. Ryan Specialty Holdings (RYAN) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AON is a global, diversified insurance brokerage and consulting leader with a far larger revenue base and margin, while RYAN is a faster-growing specialty insurance platform trading at a much smaller scale.
- Recent market activity has favored RYAN, whose shares climbed roughly 9% over three months and jumped following strong second-quarter results, while AON has lagged year to date.
- RYAN delivers double-digit organic revenue growth but faces property pricing pressure; AON generates steadier single-digit organic growth with strong retention and margin expansion.
- Both companies returned capital to shareholders through buybacks and dividends, and both currently carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), reflecting a neutral near-term view from that service.
- Investors comparing the two are weighing RYAN's growth and momentum against AON's scale, stability, and diversified earnings.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines two insurance distribution companies operating at very different stages of maturity. AON, or Aon plc, is one of the world's largest insurance brokerage and human capital consulting firms, while RYAN, or Ryan Specialty Holdings, is a wholesale specialty insurance broker and underwriting manager that has grown rapidly since its founding in 2010. Growth-oriented investors may find RYAN's momentum appealing, while those seeking scale, diversified revenue, and steadier earnings may gravitate toward AON. Comparing their relative performance and market positioning helps clarify which profile aligns with different trading and investing objectives.
AON Overview and Recent Performance
Aon plc is a global professional services firm spanning risk capital and human capital. Its business includes commercial risk, reinsurance brokerage, health solutions, and wealth solutions, giving it a diversified revenue stream across regions. In recent quarters, AON reported solid execution, with first-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share (EPS, a measure of profit per share) rising 14.3% year over year on total revenue of about $5.0 billion and organic revenue growth of 5%. Second-quarter results continued that pattern, with organic growth again near 5%, supported by strong client retention and margin expansion.
Despite steady fundamentals, AON's shares have underperformed in recent market activity, declining notably on a year-to-date basis. Sentiment has been tempered by softer results in its Wealth Solutions segment and a strategic divestiture of part of its NFP wealth business. The company has nonetheless reaffirmed its full-year outlook and raised its dividend by 10%, its sixth consecutive double-digit increase. Aon also continues to execute its "3x3 Plan," a multiyear strategy focused on risk capital, human capital, and accelerating business services.
RYAN Overview and Recent Performance
Ryan Specialty Holdings is a specialty insurance services firm that acts as a wholesale broker and managing underwriter with delegated authority from insurance carriers. It helps place complex or hard-to-insure risks, with operations spanning wholesale brokerage, binding authority, underwriting management, and reinsurance. In recent quarters, RYAN posted standout growth, including first-quarter 2026 organic revenue growth of 11.8% and a second quarter in which adjusted EPS rose 12.1% year over year.
That momentum has translated into share-price strength. RYAN gained about 9% over a recent three-month stretch, outpacing both its industry and the broader S&P 500, and its stock jumped sharply after second-quarter earnings exceeded estimates. Index-related buying following its addition to Russell value and midcap benchmarks provided additional support. However, the company has flagged a challenging property insurance pricing environment and rising competition, and it expects its adjusted EBITDAC margin (a non-GAAP profitability measure excluding interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, and certain contingent items) to decline modestly for the year.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two companies is scale versus growth. AON generates roughly $4–5 billion in quarterly revenue with a large, diversified global footprint and adjusted operating margins near 39%, reflecting a mature, high-retention business. RYAN, by contrast, generates under $1 billion in quarterly revenue but has grown revenue at a much faster clip, with organic growth recently running in the high single digits to low double digits.
Their growth drivers differ meaningfully. AON leans on cross-selling across commercial risk, reinsurance, and health solutions, along with disciplined cost savings and buybacks. RYAN benefits from the structural migration of risks into the specialty and excess-and-surplus (E&S) market and from new underwriting programs, though property pricing declines and competition pose near-term headwinds. In terms of market positioning, RYAN carries stronger recent momentum and a more growth-oriented valuation, while AON offers greater earnings stability and a larger, more diversified base. Risk factors differ too: AON faces integration and divestiture execution risk, whereas RYAN is more exposed to property-and-casualty pricing cycles.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, recent momentum, and catalyst strength, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward RYAN in the current environment. The stock's relative outperformance, earnings beats, and upward earnings-estimate revisions suggest firmer short-term trend momentum than AON, whose year-to-date decline reflects weaker near-term positioning. That said, RYAN's higher valuation and cyclical pricing exposure introduce greater volatility, while AON's scale and stability may appeal under a more defensive, longer-horizon framework. The AI's preference is therefore probabilistic rather than definitive, and it may shift as trends and catalysts evolve.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AON is a Hold and RYAN is a Hold.
AON's RSI Oscillator climbs out of oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for AON moved out of oversold territory on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 32 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 21 of the 32 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 66%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 25 of 53 cases where AON's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 47%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AON just turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where AON's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
Following a +1.69% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AON advanced for three days, in 153 of 329 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 47%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on AON as a result. In 48 of 95 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 51%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AON declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
The Aroon Indicator for AON entered a downward trend on October 14, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 64 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. AON’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 90 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.013) is normal, around the industry mean (6.334). P/E Ratio (15.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (32.709). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.134) is also within normal values, averaging (8.322). Dividend Yield (0.012) settles around the average of (0.010) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.687) is also within normal values, averaging (2.968).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 91 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AON’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 89, placing this stock worse than average.
RYAN sees its Stochastic Oscillator ascends from oversold territory
On October 14, 2026, the Stochastic Oscillator for RYAN moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 53 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In 39 of the 53 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over 74%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where RYAN's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 18 of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on RYAN as a result. In 51 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for RYAN just turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where RYAN's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
Following a +2.01% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where RYAN advanced for three days, in 198 of 316 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
RYAN may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day moving average for RYAN crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 09, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where RYAN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
The Aroon Indicator for RYAN entered a downward trend on October 05, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. RYAN’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. RYAN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 89, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 93 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (9.132) is normal, around the industry mean (6.334). P/E Ratio (51.514) is within average values for comparable stocks, (32.709). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (8.322). Dividend Yield (0.013) settles around the average of (0.010) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.707) is also within normal values, averaging (2.968).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
AON | ||
|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 5 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 90 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 23 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 64 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 91 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
| AON | RYAN | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 64% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 47% | 2 days ago 74% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 60% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 72% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 62% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 47% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 14 days ago 53% | 16 days ago 67% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 71% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 49% | 2 days ago 68% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AON’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while RYAN’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- AON’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- RYAN’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AON’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while RYAN’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AON’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
- RYAN’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
AON (@Insurance Brokers/Services) experienced а +1.80% price change this week, while RYAN (@Insurance Brokers/Services) price change was +1.06% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Insurance Brokers/Services industry was -1.46%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -9.50%, and the average quarterly price growth was -1.19%.
Reported Earning Dates
AON is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
RYAN is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Insurance Brokers/Services (-1.46% weekly)Insurance brokers sell, solicit, or negotiate insurance for compensation. General insurance brokers mostly cater to insurances on car, house etc. (versus life). Brokers are also often instrumental in helping small employers find health insurance, particularly in more competitive markets. Additionally, brokers may also provide risk assessments, insurance consulting services, insurance-related regulatory and legislative update services. Some of the major names in this industry include Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc., Aon plc and Verisk Analytics Inc.
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RYAN and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, RYAN has been closely correlated with BRO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 67% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if RYAN jumps, then BRO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To RYAN | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RYAN | 100% | +0.40% | ||
| BRO - RYAN | 67% Closely correlated | +1.17% | ||
| AON - RYAN | 59% Loosely correlated | +0.23% | ||
| AJG - RYAN | 58% Loosely correlated | +1.78% | ||
| MRSH - RYAN | 58% Loosely correlated | +0.79% | ||
| ERIE - RYAN | 50% Loosely correlated | -0.32% | ||
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