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MRSH vs RYAN
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Marsh & McLennan Companies (MRSH) vs. Ryan Specialty Holdings (RYAN) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- MRSH is the world's largest insurance broker and a diversified professional services firm, while RYAN is a faster-growing specialty insurance wholesale broker and managing underwriter.
- Both stocks face the same macro headwind of softening insurance and reinsurance pricing, but their relative performance and risk profiles have diverged sharply.
- MRSH offers scale, diversification, a dividend, and more stable earnings, yet its shares have lagged amid margin and litigation concerns.
- RYAN has delivered stronger organic growth and beat estimates, but its shares carry more volatility and have underperformed the broader market over the past year.
- Momentum, growth trajectory, and sector positioning differ enough that each stock may appeal to a different kind of investor.
Introduction
Investors evaluating the insurance brokerage space often weigh stability against growth. This stock comparison examines MRSH (Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc.), the global leader in risk advisory and consulting, against RYAN (Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc.), a pure-play specialty insurance distributor. Although both businesses generate fee-based revenue from insurance placement, their scale, market positioning, and recent price behavior differ meaningfully. A trader seeking consistency may favor the larger firm, while an investor focused on growth and cyclical rebound potential may find the smaller, higher-growth name more compelling. Understanding their relative performance and catalysts helps clarify which profile fits a given strategy in the current environment.
MRSH Overview and Recent Performance
Marsh & McLennan operates through two primary segments: Risk and Insurance Services, led by Marsh and Guy Carpenter, and Consulting, led by Mercer and Oliver Wyman. With roughly 95,000 employees and annual revenue approaching $27 billion, it is the largest insurance broker globally and advises a large share of Fortune 1000 companies.
In recent quarters, MRSH reported solid top-line growth but softer earnings momentum. First-quarter revenue rose about 8% to $7.6 billion, with adjusted EPS (earnings per share) up 8% to $3.29, though a $425 million charge tied to Greensill Capital litigation weighed on results. Underlying growth has been tempered by declining commercial insurance and reinsurance rates, a challenge management has acknowledged across recent market activity. The stock has been range-bound, with analyst consensus sitting near "Hold" and a one-year return that has lagged the broader market. Sentiment has been shaped by margin pressure, acquisition-driven capital deployment, and a cautious outlook on pricing, even as the firm's diversified, defensive revenue base remains a structural advantage.
RYAN Overview and Recent Performance
Ryan Specialty Holdings is a specialty insurance distributor that acts as both a wholesale broker and a managing underwriter, focusing on the excess and surplus (E&S) market, which covers hard-to-place and complex risks. Founded by Patrick Ryan and publicly listed in 2021, the company is considerably smaller than MRSH, with revenue of roughly $3.2 billion.
In its most recent quarterly report, RYAN grew total revenue about 7% year over year, with organic growth near 7% and adjusted EPS up roughly 12%, beating consensus estimates. Management maintained a mid-single-digit organic growth outlook while noting property pricing declines and a modest expected margin step-down. The company has expanded into new areas, including reinsurance underwriting and coverage for AI data-center infrastructure. Despite these positives, the stock has been volatile, trading well below its 52-week high and underperforming the S&P 500 over the trailing year. Sentiment reflects a tension between strong execution and a challenging pricing cycle.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two names is scale versus specialization. MRSH is a diversified, global professional services firm with consulting revenue that partially offsets insurance-pricing weakness, a long dividend history, and a large market capitalization near $80 billion. RYAN is a focused, higher-growth specialty insurer with a market cap in the single-digit billions and no comparable consulting cushion.
On growth, RYAN has generally posted faster organic expansion and stronger earnings beats in recent quarters, while MRSH has grown more modestly. On stability, the reverse holds: MRSH offers steadier, more diversified cash flows, whereas RYAN carries higher leverage and greater price sensitivity to the E&S pricing cycle.
Both face the same macro headwind — softening insurance and reinsurance rates — but absorb it differently. MRSH leans on consulting and capital returns, while RYAN leans on specialty market share gains and new product initiatives. Risk factors also differ: litigation exposure and margin pressure weigh on the larger firm, while cyclicality and a concentrated business model are the smaller firm's primary vulnerabilities.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, momentum, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward RYAN in the near term, given its stronger organic growth, consistent earnings beats, and a clearer catalyst path from new specialty and reinsurance initiatives. However, this is a probabilistic assessment rather than a definitive call: MRSH retains a more stable, diversified profile that may hold up better if pricing pressure deepens. The AI-favored outcome would depend heavily on the specific strategy, timeframe, and risk tolerance being modeled.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MRSH is a Hold and RYAN is a Hold.
MRSH's RSI Oscillator ascending out of oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for MRSH moved out of oversold territory on September 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 28 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 19 of the 28 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 68%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 06, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MRSH as a result. In 48 of 87 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MRSH just turned positive on October 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where MRSH's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Following a +1.05% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MRSH advanced for three days, in 160 of 340 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 47%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 10-day moving average for MRSH crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 11, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 21 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MRSH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 43%.
MRSH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for MRSH entered a downward trend on October 08, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MRSH’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 79 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MRSH’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 89, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 82 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.313) is normal, around the industry mean (6.334). P/E Ratio (20.639) is within average values for comparable stocks, (32.709). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.486) is also within normal values, averaging (8.322). Dividend Yield (0.022) settles around the average of (0.010) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.089) is also within normal values, averaging (2.968).
RYAN sees its Stochastic Oscillator ascends from oversold territory
On October 14, 2026, the Stochastic Oscillator for RYAN moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 53 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In 39 of the 53 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over 74%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where RYAN's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 18 of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on RYAN as a result. In 51 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for RYAN just turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where RYAN's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
Following a +2.01% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where RYAN advanced for three days, in 198 of 316 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
RYAN may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day moving average for RYAN crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 09, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where RYAN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
The Aroon Indicator for RYAN entered a downward trend on October 05, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. RYAN’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. RYAN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 89, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 93 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (9.132) is normal, around the industry mean (6.334). P/E Ratio (51.514) is within average values for comparable stocks, (32.709). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (8.322). Dividend Yield (0.013) settles around the average of (0.010) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.707) is also within normal values, averaging (2.968).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
MRSH | ||
|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 36 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 82 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 79 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 37 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 55 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
| MRSH | RYAN | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 64% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 46% | 2 days ago 74% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 60% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 72% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 48% | 2 days ago 62% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 47% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 47% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 24 days ago 43% | 16 days ago 67% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 48% | 2 days ago 71% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 41% | 2 days ago 68% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MRSH’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while RYAN’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- MRSH’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- RYAN’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MRSH’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while RYAN’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MRSH’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- RYAN’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
MRSH (@Insurance Brokers/Services) experienced а +2.73% price change this week, while RYAN (@Insurance Brokers/Services) price change was +1.06% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Insurance Brokers/Services industry was -1.46%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -9.50%, and the average quarterly price growth was -1.19%.
Reported Earning Dates
MRSH is expected to report earnings on Oct 15, 2026.
RYAN is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Insurance Brokers/Services (-1.46% weekly)Insurance brokers sell, solicit, or negotiate insurance for compensation. General insurance brokers mostly cater to insurances on car, house etc. (versus life). Brokers are also often instrumental in helping small employers find health insurance, particularly in more competitive markets. Additionally, brokers may also provide risk assessments, insurance consulting services, insurance-related regulatory and legislative update services. Some of the major names in this industry include Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc., Aon plc and Verisk Analytics Inc.
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MRSH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MRSH has been closely correlated with BRO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 80% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MRSH jumps, then BRO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MRSH | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRSH | 100% | +0.79% | ||
| BRO - MRSH | 80% Closely correlated | +1.17% | ||
| AJG - MRSH | 79% Closely correlated | +1.78% | ||
| AON - MRSH | 77% Closely correlated | +0.23% | ||
| WTW - MRSH | 65% Loosely correlated | +0.01% | ||
| RYAN - MRSH | 58% Loosely correlated | +0.40% | ||
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RYAN and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, RYAN has been closely correlated with BRO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 67% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if RYAN jumps, then BRO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To RYAN | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RYAN | 100% | +0.40% | ||
| BRO - RYAN | 67% Closely correlated | +1.17% | ||
| AON - RYAN | 59% Loosely correlated | +0.23% | ||
| AJG - RYAN | 58% Loosely correlated | +1.78% | ||
| MRSH - RYAN | 58% Loosely correlated | +0.79% | ||
| ERIE - RYAN | 50% Loosely correlated | -0.32% | ||
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