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APLD vs BBAI
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Applied Digital (APLD) vs. BigBear.ai (BBAI) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- APLD is an AI data-center developer riding a massive buildout cycle, while BBAI is a defense and national-security AI software provider scaling a smaller, higher-margin services model.
- Both companies are growing revenue rapidly but remain unprofitable on a net basis, making leverage and cash positions central to their risk profiles.
- APLD carries a "Strong Buy" analyst consensus and roughly $36 billion in contracted revenue visibility, versus a "Hold" consensus for BBAI.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: On relative trend consistency, catalyst depth, and contracted visibility, Tickeron's AI currently favors APLD over BBAI.
- For more context, explore the APLD Major News and APLD Today's Price Move pages, as well as BBAI Major News and BBAI Today's Price Move.
- Discover which strategies are currently outperforming by exploring Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Investors tracking the artificial intelligence (AI) theme often face a choice between "picks and shovels" infrastructure providers and software vendors selling AI directly to customers. APLD (Applied Digital Corporation) and BBAI (BigBear.ai Holdings) sit at opposite ends of that spectrum. This stock comparison examines their market positioning, recent momentum, and risk profiles side by side. It is most relevant for growth-oriented traders and investors evaluating two small- to mid-cap AI names with very different business models, capital structures, and catalysts, helping clarify which one currently presents the more consistent relative setup.
APLD Overview and Recent Performance
Applied Digital Corporation designs, builds, and operates specialized data centers and high-performance computing (HPC) hosting capacity for AI workloads, leasing energized space and compute to hyperscalers and cloud providers. In its most recent quarter, revenue surged roughly 322% year over year to about $341.9 million, well above consensus, driven by tenant fit-out services and rising base rent from its HPC hosting business. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) also turned strongly positive.
Despite that operational progress, sentiment has been volatile. The stock has pulled back meaningfully from its 52-week high as investors weigh the company's heavy financing needs, including around $6.4 billion in total debt against roughly $3.7 billion in cash. Recent catalysts include additional megawatt deliveries in North Dakota, new leases with an investment-grade hyperscaler, a wind-powered data-center partnership in Texas, and early international expansion into Finland. Insider buying by executives has coincided with the share-price decline, while analysts maintain an average price target well above recent trading levels.
BBAI Overview and Recent Performance
BigBear.ai Holdings provides AI-driven decision intelligence and generative AI software primarily for defense, intelligence, homeland security, and other government and commercial customers. Recent results showed a 31% year-over-year revenue increase to about $43.6 million, marking a third consecutive quarter of growth and supported by its generative AI platform. Gross margin expanded sharply, and the company raised the lower end of its full-year revenue guidance.
Sentiment, however, has been mixed. A large non-cash goodwill impairment charge pushed the company to a substantial net loss in the latest quarter, and adjusted EBITDA remains negative. The balance sheet is comparatively clean, with nearly $400 million in cash and investments and a small convertible debt balance expected to be retired by year-end. Momentum drivers include more than 25 new contract awards exceeding $225 million in value and a 22% sequential increase in backlog to about $330 million, though the stock has underperformed the broader IT-services sector over the past six months.
Trending AI Robots
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies operate in fundamentally different segments. APLD is a capital-intensive infrastructure play whose growth depends on construction execution, power availability, and continued access to debt financing. Its revenue base is larger and its contracted backlog far more substantial, but it carries a heavier debt load and a high sensitivity to AI-credit sentiment. BBAI is a leaner, software-focused business with a strong cash position and near debt-free outlook, but it operates at a smaller revenue scale and remains dependent on government contract timing and conversions.
On growth drivers, APLD's catalysts are tied to capacity milestones and lease execution, while BBAI's center on contract wins and gross-margin expansion. On risk, APLD faces financing and leverage risk, whereas BBAI faces execution risk and elevated valuation multiples relative to its losses. Analyst sentiment diverges sharply: APLD holds a "Strong Buy" consensus with substantial implied upside, while BBAI carries a "Hold" rating. Market sentiment toward APLD has been shaped by sector-wide credit concerns, while BBAI has been weighed by persistent operating losses despite improving fundamentals.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, catalyst depth, contracted revenue visibility, and analyst positioning, Tickeron's AI would currently lean toward APLD as the more favorable of the two. APLD's combination of accelerating revenue growth, a large multi-year contracted backlog, active insider buying, and a strongly bullish analyst consensus suggests a more defined catalyst path, even as its leverage remains a meaningful risk. BBAI's improving growth and clean balance sheet are notable strengths, but its persistent losses, narrower analyst support, and smaller revenue base leave its relative trend less established. This assessment is probabilistic and reflects current conditions rather than a guaranteed outcome.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is APLD is a StrongBuy and BBAI is a Hold.
APLD's RSI Indicator ascending out of oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for APLD moved out of oversold territory on November 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 23 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 22 of the 23 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 58 of 66 cases where APLD's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 88%.
Following a +18.00% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where APLD advanced for three days, in 251 of 289 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.
APLD may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 29, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on APLD as a result. In 78 of 89 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 88%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for APLD turned negative on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 41 of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 85%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where APLD declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 89%.
The Aroon Indicator for APLD entered a downward trend on November 10, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 52 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.274) is normal, around the industry mean (2.898). P/E Ratio (0.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (18.492). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (2.284). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.224) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (10.977) is also within normal values, averaging (139.965).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. APLD’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. APLD’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 93, placing this stock worse than average.
BBAI's RSI Oscillator climbs out of oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for BBAI moved out of oversold territory on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 35 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 30 of the 35 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 86%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BBAI just turned positive on October 27, 2026. Looking at past instances where BBAI's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 38 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
Following a +13.62% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BBAI advanced for three days, in 191 of 226 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 42 of 47 cases where BBAI's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 89%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 10, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on BBAI as a result. In 64 of 72 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 89%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BBAI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
BBAI broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for BBAI entered a downward trend on October 29, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 5 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.382) is normal, around the industry mean (2.898). BBAI has a moderately low P/E Ratio (-111.000) as compared to the industry average of (18.492). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (2.284). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.224) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (9.268) is also within normal values, averaging (139.965).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 64 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. BBAI’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. BBAI’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 93, placing this stock worse than average.
APLD | ||
|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 64 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 52 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 95 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 88 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 100 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 41 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
| APLD | BBAI | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 86% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 88% | 2 days ago 89% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 88% | 2 days ago 89% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 85% | 2 days ago 84% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 89% | 2 days ago 90% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 87% | 2 days ago 89% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 87% | 14 days ago 85% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 89% | 9 days ago 90% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 85% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 88% | 2 days ago 89% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
APLD’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while BBAI’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- APLD’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- BBAI’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
APLD’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while BBAI’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- APLD’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- BBAI’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
APLD (@Information Technology Services) experienced а -6.34% price change this week, while BBAI (@Information Technology Services) price change was -8.30% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Information Technology Services industry was -0.20%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.92%, and the average quarterly price growth was -6.42%.
Reported Earning Dates
APLD is expected to report earnings on Jan 12, 2027.
BBAI is expected to report earnings on Mar 11, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Information Technology Services (-0.20% weekly)The industry, whose total market cap runs into trillions, makes hardware/software that allows data to be stored, retrieved, transmitted, and manipulated on computers. With the ever-increasing relevance of data, the information technology (IT) industry has gained momentous growth over the years, and continues to thrive on innovation. Some of the behemoths in the industry are International Business Machines Corporation, Accenture, and VMware, Inc.
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APLD and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, APLD has been closely correlated with CIFR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 78% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if APLD jumps, then CIFR could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To APLD | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| APLD | 100% | -0.24% | ||
| CIFR - APLD | 78% Closely correlated | -4.11% | ||
| KEEL - APLD | 77% Closely correlated | -2.55% | ||
| WYFI - APLD | 69% Closely correlated | -3.76% | ||
| BBAI - APLD | 55% Loosely correlated | -5.31% | ||
| PONY - APLD | 51% Loosely correlated | -5.15% | ||
More | ||||
BBAI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BBAI has been loosely correlated with PONY. These tickers have moved in lockstep 56% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if BBAI jumps, then PONY could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BBAI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BBAI | 100% | -5.31% | ||
| PONY - BBAI | 56% Loosely correlated | -5.15% | ||
| APLD - BBAI | 53% Loosely correlated | -0.24% | ||
| KEEL - BBAI | 51% Loosely correlated | -2.55% | ||
| WYFI - BBAI | 46% Loosely correlated | -3.76% | ||
| TSSI - BBAI | 40% Loosely correlated | -1.97% | ||
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| ONEY | 136.87 | 0.33 | +0.24% |
| State Street SPDR Russell 1000 Yield Focus ETF (ONEY) | |||
| IWMW | 37.29 | -0.08 | -0.21% |
| iShares IWM Premium Income+ ETF (IWMW) | |||
| SCHZ | 22.41 | -0.15 | -0.66% |
| Schwab US Aggregate Bond ETF (SCHZ) | |||
| UJB | 74.76 | -0.94 | -1.25% |
| ProShares Ultra High Yield (UJB) | |||
| BMNU | 8.83 | -0.49 | -5.26% |
| T-REX 2X Long BMNR Daily Target ETF (BMNU) | |||