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APLD vs KEEL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Applied Digital Corporation (APLD) vs. Keel Infrastructure Corp. (KEEL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- APLD is an AI data-center developer scaling contracted capacity rapidly, while KEEL is pivoting from Bitcoin mining into high-performance computing (HPC) infrastructure.
- Both companies are unprofitable and highly volatile, but APLD is already recognizing substantial recurring lease revenue, whereas KEEL remains pre-revenue in its data-center transition.
- APLD carries a multi-gigawatt pipeline backed by roughly $36 billion in contracted revenue, while KEEL holds a 2.2-gigawatt pipeline still in the leasing and permitting phase.
- Momentum has diverged: KEEL has posted strong share-price gains over recent periods, while APLD has lagged year-to-date despite operational milestones.
- Both stocks carry elevated financing, cash-burn, and execution risk, making relative positioning dependent on risk tolerance and time horizon.
Introduction
Investors tracking the artificial-intelligence infrastructure buildout frequently weigh pure-play data-center developers against early-stage HPC convertors. This stock comparison examines APLD (Applied Digital Corporation), an established designer and operator of AI-focused data centers, against KEEL (Keel Infrastructure Corp.), a company repositioning its energy and data-center assets from cryptocurrency mining toward AI and high-performance computing workloads. Both names are sensitive to hyperscale demand, power availability, and financing conditions, yet their stages of maturity differ materially. Traders seeking relative performance context and long-term investors evaluating market positioning may find this comparison useful for weighing growth visibility against execution uncertainty.
APLD Overview and Recent Performance
Applied Digital Corporation designs, builds, and operates purpose-built data centers for AI and high-performance computing workloads, leasing energized capacity to hyperscalers and cloud providers such as CoreWeave. In recent weeks, the company reported fiscal first-quarter revenue of roughly $341.9 million, up 322% year over year, driven by tenant fit-out services and the ramp of its HPC hosting business. Recurring base rent reached approximately $65.8 million, reflecting newly operational capacity at its Polaris Forge 1 campus in North Dakota, where critical IT load has risen to 250 megawatts (MW) toward a fully leased 400 MW buildout.
Sentiment has been shaped by the company's contracted pipeline, reported at about 1.41 gigawatts (GW) across five campuses representing roughly $36 billion in contracted revenue over initial lease terms, as well as its first international expansion into Finland. However, APLD also carries substantial leverage, with multi-billion-dollar debt and continued GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) net losses, which has kept the stock below its 52-week high despite a broadly positive analyst consensus.
KEEL Overview and Recent Performance
Keel Infrastructure Corp. is a North American digital and energy infrastructure company transitioning from Bitcoin mining into data-center and energy assets supporting HPC and AI workloads. The company operates campuses in Pennsylvania, Washington State, and Quebec, with a development pipeline of roughly 2.2 GW and established grid interconnections. Recent market activity has been volatile, reflecting a pivot that has reduced legacy revenue as mining winds down while data-center leasing ramps up.
Recent quarters have shown a sharp decline in top-line revenue alongside widening losses and heavy cash burn, though the company retains a sizable liquidity cushion to fund development. Positive developments, including a power-resiliency agreement with a Southern Company subsidiary for its Moses Lake campus and progress on permitting, have supported the narrative of an emerging HPC colocation business. KEEL remains pre-revenue in its data-center segment and trades with elevated volatility, having posted notable share-price gains over the past several months despite ongoing profitability challenges.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between the two companies is execution stage. APLD already generates significant recurring lease revenue from operating facilities and holds long-term contracts with investment-grade counterparties, giving it higher revenue visibility but also heavier debt and construction commitments. KEEL is earlier in its lifecycle, holding substantial power capacity and liquidity but little current data-center revenue, making its valuation more dependent on future lease execution.
Growth drivers also differ. APLD is scaling existing campuses and expanding internationally, while KEEL is converting former mining and energy assets into AI colocation sites. On risk factors, both face financing and cash-burn pressures, but KEEL also carries concentration and permitting risk tied to a small number of core sites. Momentum favors KEEL in recent months, while APLD offers comparatively stronger contracted fundamentals but weaker short-term share performance.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor APLD on a stability and trend-consistency basis, given its recurring revenue, contracted backlog, and demonstrated operational milestones that reduce reliance on future speculation. The company's fundamentals show clearer evidence of conversion from pipeline to revenue. Conversely, KEEL exhibits stronger recent momentum but higher uncertainty around lease execution, permitting, and cash burn. A probabilistic view therefore leans toward APLD for investors emphasizing visibility, while acknowledging that KEEL's momentum profile may appeal to higher-risk, catalyst-driven traders.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is APLD is a Hold and KEEL is a StrongBuy.
APLD in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on September 23, 2026
APLD moved below its 50-day moving average on September 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 29 of 31 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 30, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on APLD as a result. In 79 of 88 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for APLD turned negative on September 30, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 41 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 89%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where APLD declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 89%.
The Aroon Indicator for APLD entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where APLD's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 23 of 25 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
Following a +8.99% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where APLD advanced for three days, in 254 of 291 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.
APLD may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 52 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.274) is normal, around the industry mean (2.658). P/E Ratio (0.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (16.591). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (2.284). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.119) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (10.977) is also within normal values, averaging (139.965).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 87 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. APLD’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 93, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. APLD’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
KEEL's Stochastic Oscillator stays in oversold zone for 17 days
The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an uptrend is expected.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 9 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an Uptrend is expected.
KEEL may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 01, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on KEEL as a result. In 84 of 92 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for KEEL turned negative on September 30, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 42 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 90%.
KEEL moved below its 50-day moving average on October 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for KEEL crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
The 50-day moving average for KEEL moved below the 200-day moving average on October 14, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where KEEL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
The Aroon Indicator for KEEL entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 47 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.077) is normal, around the industry mean (2.658). P/E Ratio (-2.893) is within average values for comparable stocks, (16.591). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (2.284). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.119) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (10.684) is also within normal values, averaging (139.965).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 91 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. KEEL’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. KEEL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 93, placing this stock worse than average.
APLD | KEEL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 52 Fair valued | 47 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 87 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 95 | 98 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 88 | 91 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 100 | 9 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 40 | 22 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
KEEL's Valuation (47) in the null industry is in the same range as APLD (52). This means that KEEL’s stock grew similarly to APLD’s over the last 12 months.
APLD's Profit vs Risk Rating (87) in the null industry is in the same range as KEEL (100). This means that APLD’s stock grew similarly to KEEL’s over the last 12 months.
APLD's SMR Rating (95) in the null industry is in the same range as KEEL (98). This means that APLD’s stock grew similarly to KEEL’s over the last 12 months.
APLD's Price Growth Rating (88) in the null industry is in the same range as KEEL (91). This means that APLD’s stock grew similarly to KEEL’s over the last 12 months.
KEEL's P/E Growth Rating (9) in the null industry is significantly better than the same rating for APLD (100). This means that KEEL’s stock grew significantly faster than APLD’s over the last 12 months.
| APLD | KEEL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 90% | 3 days ago 75% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 88% | 3 days ago 87% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 90% | 3 days ago 90% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 89% | 3 days ago 90% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 89% | 3 days ago 90% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 86% | 3 days ago 90% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 87% | N/A |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 89% | 3 days ago 90% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 89% | 3 days ago 76% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 87% | 3 days ago 90% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
APLD’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while KEEL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- APLD’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- KEEL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
APLD’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while KEEL’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- APLD’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- KEEL’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 7 bearish.
Price Growth
APLD (@Information Technology Services) experienced а +1.11% price change this week, while KEEL (@Information Technology Services) price change was -6.06% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Information Technology Services industry was +0.74%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.43%, and the average quarterly price growth was -7.52%.
Reported Earning Dates
APLD is expected to report earnings on Jan 12, 2027.
KEEL is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Information Technology Services (+0.74% weekly)The industry, whose total market cap runs into trillions, makes hardware/software that allows data to be stored, retrieved, transmitted, and manipulated on computers. With the ever-increasing relevance of data, the information technology (IT) industry has gained momentous growth over the years, and continues to thrive on innovation. Some of the behemoths in the industry are International Business Machines Corporation, Accenture, and VMware, Inc.
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APLD and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, APLD has been closely correlated with KEEL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if APLD jumps, then KEEL could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To APLD | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| APLD | 100% | -4.40% | ||
| KEEL - APLD | 74% Closely correlated | -3.12% | ||
| CIFR - APLD | 74% Closely correlated | -4.57% | ||
| WYFI - APLD | 67% Closely correlated | -5.40% | ||
| BBAI - APLD | 52% Loosely correlated | +0.47% | ||
| PONY - APLD | 50% Loosely correlated | +2.39% | ||
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KEEL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KEEL has been closely correlated with CIFR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 79% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if KEEL jumps, then CIFR could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To KEEL | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KEEL | 100% | -3.12% | ||
| CIFR - KEEL | 79% Closely correlated | -4.57% | ||
| CLSK - KEEL | 76% Closely correlated | -3.31% | ||
| HIVE - KEEL | 76% Closely correlated | -1.03% | ||
| APLD - KEEL | 75% Closely correlated | -4.40% | ||
| HUT - KEEL | 72% Closely correlated | -4.28% | ||
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