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APLD vs CIFR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Applied Digital (APLD) vs. Cipher Digital (CIFR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- APLD and CIFR are both pivoting toward AI and high-performance computing (HPC) data centers, but they are at very different stages of that transition.
- APLD is already converting contracts into revenue, with quarterly sales up more than 300% year over year, while CIFR's HPC business is still in early delivery.
- CIFR's share price has fallen sharply in recent weeks amid convertible-debt dilution concerns, while APLD has held up better on a relative basis.
- Both companies carry heavy debt and high execution risk, but APLD shows more consistency in near-term operational momentum.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: APLD is the favored ticker of the two, based on stronger trend consistency, revenue traction, and relative positioning.
- For more detail on each name, explore APLD Major News and APLD Today's Price Move, plus CIFR Major News and CIFR Today's Price Move.
- To see how AI evaluates the broader market, explore the Trending AI Robots page.
Introduction
Applied Digital Corporation (APLD) and Cipher Digital (CIFR), formerly Cipher Mining, have become two of the most closely watched names in the AI infrastructure build-out. Both companies design and operate power-intensive data centers, and both are racing to convert scarce electricity capacity into long-term contracts with hyperscale AI tenants. This stock comparison is relevant for traders and investors tracking the AI data center theme, as well as those weighing a high-growth infrastructure play against elevated debt and execution risk. Because the two companies sit at different points on the same strategic arc, their relative performance offers a useful lens on how the market is pricing this fast-moving sector.
APLD Overview and Recent Performance
Applied Digital designs, builds, and operates purpose-built data centers for AI, HPC (high-performance computing), cloud, and blockchain workloads. In recent weeks, the company has drawn attention for strong financial momentum: its most recent quarter showed total revenue up roughly 322% year over year to about $342 million, well above consensus, driven by tenant fit-out services and base rent from its HPC Hosting segment.
The company now holds leases covering approximately 1.41 gigawatts (GW) of critical IT load across five campuses, representing about $36 billion in contracted revenue over initial terms. Recent developments include a joint venture with Soluna Holdings to build a 50-megawatt (MW) AI data center in Texas and progress on its North Dakota campuses. Despite this progress, the shares remain volatile and have traded below their 52-week high, with sentiment sensitive to interest-rate moves because of the company's substantial debt-funded expansion.
CIFR Overview and Recent Performance
Cipher Digital is shifting from Bitcoin mining toward AI and HPC data center hosting. It has secured high-profile tenant relationships, including a 15-year agreement with Amazon Web Services (AWS) and a long-term arrangement at its Barber Lake site backed by Google. Recent weeks brought a notable catalyst: the Barber Lake lease was extended to 20 years, lifting contracted revenue at that site above $9 billion and total contracted revenue to roughly $16.5 billion.
However, the stock has experienced meaningful pressure. A planned $850 million zero-coupon convertible note offering raised concerns about dilution, and the shares have fallen sharply over the past month and over the past year. Near-term reported results remain dominated by Bitcoin mining, whose revenue has declined, while the HPC business is only beginning to contribute rent. The shares trade at a high price-to-sales (P/S) multiple relative to peers, reflecting investor expectations for future data center cash flows that have yet to fully materialize.
Trending AI Robots
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast between these two stocks is execution stage. APLD's HPC hosting business is already operational and generating accelerating revenue, giving it a more tangible near-term earnings story. CIFR, by contrast, is earlier in its transition; its contracted revenue is substantial, but current results still lean on Bitcoin mining while its data halls are only beginning to deliver rent.
Growth drivers differ as well. APLD's thesis rests on converting its $36 billion contracted pipeline into operating capacity across North Dakota, Texas, and a newly announced potential site in Finland. CIFR's thesis hinges on power access in Texas — including conditional classifications from ERCOT (Electric Reliability Council of Texas) for multi-gigawatt projects — and on executing its AWS and Fluidstack/Google leases.
Risk profiles also diverge. Both are highly leveraged and rate-sensitive, but CIFR has added a specific dilution overhang from convertible issuance and a steeper recent price decline, while APLD faces concentrated tenant exposure and heavy capital expenditure. In terms of market sentiment, APLD has shown more relative stability, whereas CIFR's momentum has deteriorated markedly in recent weeks.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor APLD in this comparison. The company demonstrates stronger trend consistency, a clearer conversion of signed leases into reported revenue, and more resilient relative positioning. While CIFR carries an impressive contracted-revenue backlog, its recent share-price deterioration, financing-related dilution concerns, and earlier-stage transition introduce greater uncertainty. The verdict reflects a probabilistic assessment of momentum, stability, and near-term catalysts rather than a guaranteed outcome, and conditions could shift as either company reports new developments.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is APLD is a Hold and CIFR is a Hold.
Momentum Indicator for APLD turns negative, indicating new downward trend
APLD saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on October 29, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 90 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 83 of the 90 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for APLD turned negative on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 43 of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 90%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where APLD declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 89%.
The Aroon Indicator for APLD entered a downward trend on November 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where APLD's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 23 of 25 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 4 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +14.36% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where APLD advanced for three days, in 252 of 290 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.
APLD may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 52 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.274) is normal, around the industry mean (2.898). P/E Ratio (0.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (18.492). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (2.284). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.224) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (10.977) is also within normal values, averaging (139.965).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. APLD’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. APLD’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 93, placing this stock worse than average.
CIFR's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for CIFR entered a downward trend on November 06, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 194 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 173 of the 194 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 89%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CIFR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 89%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where CIFR's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 20 of 26 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 4 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CIFR just turned positive on November 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where CIFR's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 44 of 53 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
Following a +15.04% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CIFR advanced for three days, in 238 of 269 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 88%.
CIFR may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 51 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.833) is normal, around the industry mean (2.898). P/E Ratio (-2.288) is within average values for comparable stocks, (18.492). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (2.284). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.224) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (35.088) is also within normal values, averaging (139.965).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. CIFR’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CIFR’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 93, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 99 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
APLD | CIFR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 52 Fair valued | 51 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 98 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 95 | 99 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 89 | 95 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 100 | 7 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 41 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CIFR's Valuation (51) in the null industry is in the same range as APLD (52). This means that CIFR’s stock grew similarly to APLD’s over the last 12 months.
CIFR's Profit vs Risk Rating (98) in the null industry is in the same range as APLD (100). This means that CIFR’s stock grew similarly to APLD’s over the last 12 months.
APLD's SMR Rating (95) in the null industry is in the same range as CIFR (99). This means that APLD’s stock grew similarly to CIFR’s over the last 12 months.
APLD's Price Growth Rating (89) in the null industry is in the same range as CIFR (95). This means that APLD’s stock grew similarly to CIFR’s over the last 12 months.
CIFR's P/E Growth Rating (7) in the null industry is significantly better than the same rating for APLD (100). This means that CIFR’s stock grew significantly faster than APLD’s over the last 12 months.
| APLD | CIFR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 90% | 3 days ago 77% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 81% | 3 days ago 86% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 90% | N/A |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 90% | 3 days ago 83% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 89% | 3 days ago 86% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 87% | 3 days ago 88% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 87% | 12 days ago 88% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 89% | 4 days ago 89% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 90% | 3 days ago 90% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 88% | 3 days ago 89% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
APLD’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while CIFR’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- APLD’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- CIFR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
APLD’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while CIFR’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- APLD’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- CIFR’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 2 bearish.
Price Growth
APLD (@Information Technology Services) experienced а -12.71% price change this week, while CIFR (@Information Technology Services) price change was -10.22% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Information Technology Services industry was -4.90%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.00%, and the average quarterly price growth was -14.70%.
Reported Earning Dates
APLD is expected to report earnings on Jan 12, 2027.
CIFR is expected to report earnings on Mar 02, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Information Technology Services (-4.90% weekly)The industry, whose total market cap runs into trillions, makes hardware/software that allows data to be stored, retrieved, transmitted, and manipulated on computers. With the ever-increasing relevance of data, the information technology (IT) industry has gained momentous growth over the years, and continues to thrive on innovation. Some of the behemoths in the industry are International Business Machines Corporation, Accenture, and VMware, Inc.
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APLD and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, APLD has been closely correlated with KEEL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 75% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if APLD jumps, then KEEL could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To APLD | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| APLD | 100% | +9.74% | ||
| KEEL - APLD | 75% Closely correlated | +13.33% | ||
| CIFR - APLD | 75% Closely correlated | +17.93% | ||
| WYFI - APLD | 69% Closely correlated | +13.85% | ||
| BBAI - APLD | 55% Loosely correlated | N/A | ||
| PONY - APLD | 51% Loosely correlated | +6.26% | ||
More | ||||
| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| IYZ | 37.06 | 0.70 | +1.93% |
| iShares U.S. Telecommunications ETF (IYZ) | |||
| MFIG | 19.38 | 0.21 | +1.09% |
| Motley Fool Innovative Growth ETF (MFIG) | |||
| IBAT | 33.29 | 0.19 | +0.58% |
| iShares Energy Storage & Materials ETF (IBAT) | |||
| NRO | 2.70 | -0.01 | -0.37% |
| Neuberger Real Estate Securities Income Fund Inc. | |||
| SCHH | 23.49 | -0.14 | -0.59% |
| Schwab U.S. REIT ETF (SCHH) | |||