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APP vs RIOT
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AppLovin (APP) vs. Riot Platforms (RIOT) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- APP is a highly profitable AI-driven mobile advertising platform that has fallen sharply in 2026 after years of triple-digit gains.
- RIOT is a Bitcoin miner pivoting aggressively into AI data-center hosting, with multi-billion-dollar lease agreements driving renewed momentum.
- The two stocks represent fundamentally different risk profiles: APP offers proven, high-margin earnings, while RIOT offers an emerging, capital-intensive growth story.
- APP faces questions about slowing growth and a securities class action, while RIOT still reports net losses tied to non-cash Bitcoin (BTC) mark-to-market swings.
- Relative performance has diverged sharply in recent months, with RIOT outperforming while APP has repriced lower.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines two names at opposite ends of the technology spectrum: AppLovin, an advertising-software leader built around artificial intelligence (AI), and Riot Platforms, a Bitcoin mining operator transforming itself into an AI infrastructure provider. Despite their different industries, both are closely tied to the AI investment theme and have experienced dramatic volatility. Growth-oriented investors watching the AI trade, as well as traders comparing momentum across high-beta equities, may find the contrast instructive. Understanding each company's business model, recent catalysts, and market positioning helps clarify which risk-reward profile may be better suited to current market conditions.
APP Overview and Recent Performance
APP, or AppLovin, operates an AI-powered advertising platform that connects app developers with advertisers through its MAX ad-auction network and its AXON machine-learning engine. The company delivered exceptional returns in prior years — roughly 280% in 2023, 703% in 2024, and 108% in 2025 — before a sharp reversal in 2026, with the stock down more than half year to date after peaking near $733 in late 2025.
Fundamentals remain strong: recent quarterly revenue rose 53% year over year to $1.92 billion, with operating margins above 75% and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) of roughly $1.6 billion. However, sentiment has cooled amid a securities class action alleging misrepresentations around its AI tools, plus analyst notes suggesting its MAX network's market-share gains are plateauing and competition from Unity and Meta is compressing spreads. Forward guidance pointing to single-digit sequential growth has turned the stock into a "show-me" story in recent weeks.
RIOT Overview and Recent Performance
RIOT, or Riot Platforms, has historically been one of the largest publicly traded Bitcoin miners, operating facilities in Texas and Kentucky. Over the past year, the company has accelerated a strategic pivot toward AI and high-performance computing (HPC) data-center hosting, a shift encouraged by activist investors. This transition has reshaped its investment narrative and driven strong share-price momentum, with the stock up well over 60% year to date and roughly 20% over the past 30 days.
The catalyst has been a series of landmark agreements: a 20-year, 191-megawatt lease with AI lab Anthropic valued at roughly $9.1 billion over its initial term, alongside an expanded contract with chipmaker AMD (Advanced Micro Devices). Riot now cites nearly $10 billion in contracted data-center revenue. Recent quarterly revenue rose 14% to about $174 million, though the company still reported an adjusted EBITDA loss of roughly $70 million due to non-cash Bitcoin mark-to-market charges and elevated depreciation. The data-center segment, while small, is growing rapidly and generating margins above 80%.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast between APP and RIOT lies in maturity versus transformation. APP is a highly profitable, cash-generative software business whose growth engine is now being questioned. Its valuation has compressed to a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio in the mid-to-high teens, but the bull case depends on proving its AI tools can sustain monetization beyond mobile gaming. RIOT, by contrast, is reinvesting heavily and still unprofitable on a GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) basis, yet it holds multi-year contracted revenue, substantial Bitcoin holdings, and over $1.2 billion in liquidity.
Risk factors also differ. APP's key risks include growth deceleration, litigation, and competitive pressure in digital advertising. RIOT's risks center on Bitcoin price volatility, execution on capital-intensive data-center build-outs, potential share dilution, and financing costs. Sector exposure is another dividing line: APP is tied to digital advertising and e-commerce, while RIOT is exposed to cryptocurrency and energy-intensive infrastructure. In recent weeks, momentum has favored RIOT as its AI pivot has gained credibility, whereas APP has been in a period of de-rating.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor RIOT at this juncture. The stock is exhibiting more consistent upward trend characteristics, is supported by tangible, long-dated contracted revenue catalysts, and benefits from a sector tailwind tied to AI infrastructure demand. By comparison, APP currently shows weaker momentum and greater near-term uncertainty around its growth trajectory and litigation overhang. That said, this assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive: APP's profitability and compressed valuation could support a stabilization, while RIOT's reliance on Bitcoin and heavy capital deployment introduces meaningful volatility. The AI's preference reflects relative trend consistency and catalyst strength rather than any guarantee of future returns.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is APP is a Hold and RIOT is a Hold.
APP's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for APP entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 196 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 160 of the 196 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 82%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 24, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on APP as a result. In 55 of 76 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for APP turned negative on September 30, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 30 of the 43 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 70%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where APP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 79%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where APP's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 22 of 23 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 12 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +6.28% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where APP advanced for three days, in 292 of 338 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
APP may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 71 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. APP’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 98, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 87 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. APP’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 99 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (32.573) is normal, around the industry mean (13.387). P/E Ratio (23.693) is within average values for comparable stocks, (43.426). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.668) is also within normal values, averaging (2.156). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.011) among similar stocks. APP's P/S Ratio (16.207) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.831).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 99 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
Momentum Indicator for RIOT turns negative, indicating new downward trend
RIOT saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on September 30, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 83 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 75 of the 83 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for RIOT turned negative on September 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 38 of the 43 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 88%.
RIOT moved below its 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for RIOT crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 07, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 14 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 88%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where RIOT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 87%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an Uptrend is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 9 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +4.97% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where RIOT advanced for three days, in 244 of 274 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 89%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 191 of 210 cases where RIOT Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 90%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 13 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 28 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 78 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. RIOT’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 94 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.700) is normal, around the industry mean (4.320). P/E Ratio (27.240) is within average values for comparable stocks, (30.932). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.800) is also within normal values, averaging (0.809). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (10.504) is also within normal values, averaging (16.763).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. RIOT’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 86, placing this stock worse than average.
RIOT | ||
|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 63 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 94 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 98 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 78 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 28 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 13 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
| APP | RIOT | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 90% | 1 day ago 90% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 90% | 1 day ago 90% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 90% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 88% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 87% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 82% | 1 day ago 89% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | about 1 month ago 86% | 23 days ago 89% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 79% | 7 days ago 87% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 86% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 82% | 1 day ago 90% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
APP’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while RIOT’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- APP’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- RIOT’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
APP’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while RIOT’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- APP’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- RIOT’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
APP (@Advertising/Marketing Services) experienced а -2.33% price change this week, while RIOT (@Investment Banks/Brokers) price change was -11.94% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Advertising/Marketing Services industry was -1.51%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.44%, and the average quarterly price growth was +7.54%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Banks/Brokers industry was -7.70%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -7.59%, and the average quarterly price growth was -14.85%.
Reported Earning Dates
APP is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
RIOT is expected to report earnings on Nov 10, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Advertising/Marketing Services (-1.51% weekly)Making a brand known to people, garnering more clients/consumers for its product and solidifying the brand’s position in an industry – all of these are essential to a company’s growth, and that’s where marketing/advertising come in as one of the key catalysts. Advertising industry is a global multibillion-dollar business of public relations and marketing companies, media services and advertising agencies – entities that help to connect manufacturers/producers with customers. Digital media has played a big role in the growth of global advertising, and agencies invest substantially to integrate advanced technologies into their business operations. According to some estimates, the U.S. advertising industry is expected to generate revenue of $52.6 billion by 2023, up from almost $40 billion in 2015 . Omnicom Group Inc., Trade Desk, Inc. and Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. are some of the major U.S. companies in the industry.
@Investment Banks/Brokers (-7.70% weekly)These banks specialize in underwriting (helping companies with debt financing or equity issuances), IPOs, facilitating mergers and other corporate reorganizations and acting as a broker or financial advisor for institutions. They might also trade securities on their own accounts. Investment banks potentially thrive on expanding its network of clients, since that could help them increase profits. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and CME Group Inc are some of the largest investment banking companies.
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APP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, APP has been loosely correlated with COIN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 62% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if APP jumps, then COIN could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To APP | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| APP | 100% | +0.52% | ||
| COIN - APP | 62% Loosely correlated | +0.78% | ||
| CLSK - APP | 58% Loosely correlated | -1.46% | ||
| QTWO - APP | 57% Loosely correlated | +0.14% | ||
| RIOT - APP | 52% Loosely correlated | +1.21% | ||
| HUBS - APP | 51% Loosely correlated | -0.94% | ||
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