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ARCC vs OBDC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) vs. Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both ARCC and OBDC are business development companies (BDCs) focused on middle-market lending, offering high dividend yields above 10% amid recent market pressures.
- ARCC boasts a larger market cap of $13.4 billion and more diversified exposure, while OBDC provides a higher yield near 13.4% but with narrower net investment income (NII, a key profitability measure for BDCs) margins.
- Recent weeks have seen both stocks decline due to falling interest rates and software sector concerns, with ARCC at around $18.67 and OBDC near $11.27, trading below 52-week highs.
- ARCC shows steadier momentum with a P/E ratio of 10.04 versus OBDC's 9.09, reflecting relative stability in a challenging BDC environment.
- Investor sentiment favors ARCC for its scale and dividend coverage, though both face risks from portfolio non-accruals and rate sensitivity.
Introduction
This stock comparison pits ARCC, a leading BDC with extensive middle-market lending experience, against OBDC, a growing player in direct lending. Both offer attractive yields for income-focused investors navigating volatile markets and declining rates. Traders seeking relative performance insights, dividend sustainability, and sector positioning will find value here, especially as BDCs contend with credit stresses and shifting monetary policy. This analysis highlights key metrics and recent trends to inform stock comparison decisions.
ARCC Overview and Recent Performance
Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) is a market-leading BDC providing financing solutions like senior loans and mezzanine debt to U.S. middle-market companies across sectors including manufacturing, healthcare, and technology. With a portfolio emphasizing first-lien debt, it manages over $20 billion in investments. In recent market activity, ARCC's shares have traded around $18.67, down from 52-week highs near $23.42 amid broader BDC sector weakness. Falling short-term rates have pressured NII, though stable earnings coverage supports its 10.3% dividend yield. Sentiment reflects caution due to 24% software exposure and upcoming Q1 results, yet its scale has limited downside versus peers.
OBDC Overview and Recent Performance
Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC) operates as a BDC specializing in senior secured loans and unitranche debt to middle-market firms, with a focus on non-cyclical sectors like business services. Its portfolio targets EBITDA between $10-250 million, prioritizing first-lien structures. Recently, shares hovered near $11.27, retreating from peaks above $15 amid software-related selloffs and rate declines. Despite a compelling 13.4% yield, NII dipped in recent quarters, raising coverage concerns. Market sentiment has been volatile, buoyed by capital raises but tempered by credit strains and analyst target cuts, positioning it as higher-yield but riskier amid sector headwinds.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both ARCC and OBDC follow similar BDC models, originating floating-rate loans to middle-market borrowers, but ARCC's larger scale ($13.4B market cap vs. $5.6B) enables broader diversification and stronger funding access. Growth drivers differ: ARCC benefits from established deal flow, while OBDC pursues expansion via capital raises. Recent momentum favors neither decisively, with both down YTD but ARCC showing better 1-month gains. Risks include rate sensitivity—declining SOFR impacts NII—and software exposure (higher for ARCC). Sector focus overlaps in services, but OBDC leans more first-lien. Sentiment tilts to ARCC for reliability, trading at a slight P/E premium.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI models currently lean toward ARCC due to its superior trend consistency, larger balance sheet, and more resilient NII coverage amid rate pressures. While OBDC offers higher yield potential, its thinner margins introduce greater volatility. Observable catalysts like ARCC's earnings stability position it favorably in the near term, though both merit monitoring for credit shifts.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ARCC is a StrongBuy and OBDC is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ARCC’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileOBDC’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- ARCC’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- OBDC’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ARCC’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while OBDC’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ARCC’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
- OBDC’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
ARCC (@Investment Managers) experienced а +1.74% price change this week, while OBDC (@Investment Managers) price change was +0.91% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Managers industry was +1.43%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.13%, and the average quarterly price growth was -5.60%.
Reported Earning Dates
ARCC is expected to report earnings on Jul 28, 2026.
OBDC is expected to report earnings on Aug 12, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Investment Managers (+1.43% weekly)Investment Managers manage financial assets and other investments of clients. Management includes designing a short- or long-term strategy for buying/holding and selling of portfolio holdings. It can also include tax services and other aspects of financial planning as well. While it is perceived that the industry is faced with growing competition from robo-advisors/digital platforms and passive/ index-tracking funds, many investors still find value in actively managed in-person services that investment management companies often emphasize on. At the same time, many wealth managers are also incorporating digital initiatives/low cost options in addition to their in-person customized services. Their main sources of revenues are fees as a percentage of assets under management, in addition to a certain portion of clients’ gains from asset appreciation. BlackRock, Inc., Blackstone Group Inc and Brookfield Asset Management are some of the major investment management companies.
| ARCC | OBDC | ARCC / OBDC | |
| Capitalization | 13.4B | 5.5B | 244% |
| EBITDA | N/A | N/A | - |
| Gain YTD | -3.030 | -7.726 | 39% |
| P/E Ratio | 11.42 | 15.83 | 72% |
| Revenue | 1.36B | 445M | 306% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 521M | - |
| Total Debt | 15.8B | 8.46B | 187% |
ARCC | OBDC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 19 | 64 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 3 Undervalued | 4 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 28 | 53 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 21 | 32 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 53 | 58 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 45 | 15 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 65 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ARCC's Valuation (3) in the null industry is in the same range as OBDC (4). This means that ARCC’s stock grew similarly to OBDC’s over the last 12 months.
ARCC's Profit vs Risk Rating (28) in the null industry is in the same range as OBDC (53). This means that ARCC’s stock grew similarly to OBDC’s over the last 12 months.
ARCC's SMR Rating (21) in the null industry is in the same range as OBDC (32). This means that ARCC’s stock grew similarly to OBDC’s over the last 12 months.
ARCC's Price Growth Rating (53) in the null industry is in the same range as OBDC (58). This means that ARCC’s stock grew similarly to OBDC’s over the last 12 months.
OBDC's P/E Growth Rating (15) in the null industry is in the same range as ARCC (45). This means that OBDC’s stock grew similarly to ARCC’s over the last 12 months.
| ARCC | OBDC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 28% | 2 days ago 62% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 46% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 50% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 41% | 2 days ago 43% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 39% | 2 days ago 40% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 39% | 5 days ago 43% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 41% | 9 days ago 41% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 24% | 2 days ago 46% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 38% | 2 days ago 56% |
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OBDC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, OBDC has been closely correlated with ARCC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 80% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if OBDC jumps, then ARCC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To OBDC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OBDC | 100% | -0.89% | ||
| ARCC - OBDC | 80% Closely correlated | -0.85% | ||
| BXSL - OBDC | 78% Closely correlated | -0.38% | ||
| GBDC - OBDC | 74% Closely correlated | -1.85% | ||
| MSDL - OBDC | 73% Closely correlated | -0.96% | ||
| NCDL - OBDC | 70% Closely correlated | -3.21% | ||
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