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ARCC vs OBDC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) vs. Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both ARCC and OBDC are business development companies (BDCs) — firms that lend to middle-market companies and pass most of their income to shareholders as dividends — but they are positioned very differently in the current market.
- ARCC is the largest publicly traded BDC, offering a roughly 10% dividend yield, a stable $0.48 quarterly payout, and a pending $2.6 billion acquisition of MidCap Financial (MFIC).
- OBDC reset its base dividend to $0.31 per share in mid-2026 and has traded near a 52-week low at a wider discount to net asset value (NAV), reflecting weaker momentum and an abandoned merger with Blue Owl Capital Corporation II.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: ARCC — its trend consistency, dividend stability, scale, and stronger relative positioning give it the edge over OBDC in the current environment.
- For more detail, explore ARCC Major News and ARCC Today's Price Move, as well as OBDC Major News and OBDC Today's Price Move.
- To see how automated strategies are positioning across thousands of tickers, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Income-focused investors often turn to business development companies (BDCs) for high dividend yields and exposure to private middle-market credit. Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) and Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC) are two of the most widely followed names in the sector, yet their recent paths have diverged sharply. This stock comparison examines their business models, relative performance, and market positioning to help both experienced income investors and newer traders assess which ticker currently presents a stronger profile. By evaluating dividend stability, portfolio quality, balance-sheet strength, and momentum, the analysis below provides a fact-based view of how these two BDCs stack up today.
ARCC Overview and Recent Performance
Ares Capital Corporation is the largest publicly traded BDC, with a diversified portfolio spanning hundreds of middle-market companies. In recent weeks, ARCC has drawn attention for its agreement to acquire fellow BDC MidCap Financial Investment Corporation in a roughly $2.6 billion transaction, a move expected to modestly boost core earnings and further expand its scale. The company maintains a stable quarterly dividend of $0.48 per share and reported approximately $6.0 billion of available liquidity, modest leverage, and limited near-term maturities.
Recent performance has been steady but not flawless. Core earnings in the latest quarter came in slightly below the dividend, and non-accrual loans (loans not generating interest income) edged higher, though they remain below historical averages. Sentiment has been supported by the company's long track record of stable or growing dividends and a strong analyst consensus. The stock has generally outperformed the broader market over recent months, trading modestly below NAV — a healthier valuation signal than many BDC peers currently display.
OBDC Overview and Recent Performance
Blue Owl Capital Corporation is a specialty finance company focused on lending to upper middle-market companies, with a portfolio weighted toward first-lien senior secured loans and floating-rate debt. In recent market activity, OBDC has faced greater headwinds than ARCC. The company reset its base dividend to $0.31 per share in mid-2026, down from $0.37, aligning the payout more closely with declining net investment income (NII) — the income a BDC earns from its loan portfolio after expenses.
The stock has traded near a 52-week low and at a meaningful discount to its NAV per share, reflecting investor concerns about spread compression, portfolio shrinkage, and the withdrawal of a planned merger with Blue Owl Capital Corporation II. On the positive side, credit metrics improved, non-accruals declined, and Moody's upgraded the company's credit rating to Baa2 in January 2026. However, these stabilizing factors have not yet translated into sustained share-price momentum.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page showcases a curated selection of the platform's hundreds of AI trading bots, which collectively trade thousands of different tickers. Each bot operates with its own trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance record, and set of tickers, but only those best suited to current market conditions earn a place in this featured section. Traders can browse bots with distinct approaches — from short-term momentum to longer-horizon strategies — and review key statistics to compare their track records. If you are interested in how automated, data-driven strategies are positioning across markets right now, exploring the Trending AI Robots page is a practical next step.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast between these two BDCs is one of scale and momentum versus valuation. ARCC is the industry's largest player, with a longer history of dividend stability, an active acquisition strategy, and a premium resilience through credit cycles. OBDC, by comparison, offers a higher headline yield after its selloff and trades at a steeper discount to NAV — a potentially attractive valuation for some investors, but also a reflection of genuine earnings pressure and a recent dividend cut.
In terms of sector exposure, both companies lend predominantly to middle-market borrowers, but OBDC skews more heavily toward first-lien senior secured loans, while ARCC holds a more diverse mix that includes second-lien debt, preferred equity, and its Ivy Hill Asset Management business. Risk profiles differ accordingly: OBDC carries higher senior-secured concentration but has seen its earnings power compress, whereas ARCC faces slightly elevated non-accruals but retains stronger dividend coverage history and scale advantages.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor ARCC over OBDC at present. The assessment centers on trend consistency and stability: ARCC has maintained a stable dividend, preserved its NAV more effectively, and continued to deploy capital through an accretive acquisition, all of which support more durable relative positioning. OBDC offers a compelling valuation and improving credit metrics, but its dividend reset, weaker momentum, and discontinued merger introduce greater uncertainty. In probabilistic terms, the balance of trend quality, catalysts, and financial resilience currently tilts toward ARCC, though market conditions can shift quickly.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ARCC is a Buy and OBDC is a Hold.
ARCC's RSI Oscillator recovers from oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for ARCC moved out of oversold territory on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 21 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 11 of the 21 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 52%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 29, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ARCC as a result. In 42 of 89 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 47%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ARCC just turned positive on October 22, 2026. Looking at past instances where ARCC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 20 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 43%.
ARCC moved above its 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +3.30% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ARCC advanced for three days, in 133 of 344 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 39%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 104 of 309 cases where ARCC Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 34%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 10-day moving average for ARCC crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 02, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 4 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 29%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ARCC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 40%.
ARCC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 11 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 80, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ARCC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 86 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.989) is normal, around the industry mean (2.412). P/E Ratio (14.276) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-2.386). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.100) settles around the average of (0.270) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (11.792) is also within normal values, averaging (15.694).
OBDC sees its 50-day moving average cross bearishly below its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for OBDC moved below the 200-day moving average on October 13, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where OBDC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 46%.
OBDC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for OBDC entered a downward trend on October 28, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on OBDC as a result. In 43 of 84 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 51%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for OBDC just turned positive on October 22, 2026. Looking at past instances where OBDC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 22 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 46%.
OBDC moved above its 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.67% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where OBDC advanced for three days, in 137 of 310 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 44%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. OBDC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 80, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 89 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.767) is normal, around the industry mean (2.412). P/E Ratio (19.536) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-2.386). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.050) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.113) settles around the average of (0.270) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (14.925) is also within normal values, averaging (15.694).
ARCC | OBDC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 86 Overvalued | 89 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 26 | 54 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 11 | 13 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 48 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 12 | 4 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ARCC's Valuation (86) in the null industry is in the same range as OBDC (89). This means that ARCC’s stock grew similarly to OBDC’s over the last 12 months.
ARCC's Profit vs Risk Rating (26) in the null industry is in the same range as OBDC (54). This means that ARCC’s stock grew similarly to OBDC’s over the last 12 months.
ARCC's SMR Rating (11) in the null industry is in the same range as OBDC (13). This means that ARCC’s stock grew similarly to OBDC’s over the last 12 months.
ARCC's Price Growth Rating (48) in the null industry is in the same range as OBDC (48). This means that ARCC’s stock grew similarly to OBDC’s over the last 12 months.
OBDC's P/E Growth Rating (4) in the null industry is in the same range as ARCC (12). This means that OBDC’s stock grew similarly to ARCC’s over the last 12 months.
| ARCC | OBDC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 52% | 4 days ago 43% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 29% | 4 days ago 47% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 47% | 4 days ago 51% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 43% | 4 days ago 46% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 41% | 4 days ago 46% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 39% | 4 days ago 43% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 39% | 4 days ago 44% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 40% | 15 days ago 46% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 18% | 4 days ago 46% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 34% | 4 days ago 59% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ARCC’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while OBDC’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- ARCC’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- OBDC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ARCC’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while OBDC’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ARCC’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- OBDC’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
ARCC (@Investment Managers) experienced а +0.10% price change this week, while OBDC (@Investment Managers) price change was +5.29% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Managers industry was +0.14%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.70%, and the average quarterly price growth was -1.48%.
Reported Earning Dates
ARCC is expected to report earnings on Feb 10, 2027.
OBDC is expected to report earnings on Feb 24, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Investment Managers (+0.14% weekly)Investment Managers manage financial assets and other investments of clients. Management includes designing a short- or long-term strategy for buying/holding and selling of portfolio holdings. It can also include tax services and other aspects of financial planning as well. While it is perceived that the industry is faced with growing competition from robo-advisors/digital platforms and passive/ index-tracking funds, many investors still find value in actively managed in-person services that investment management companies often emphasize on. At the same time, many wealth managers are also incorporating digital initiatives/low cost options in addition to their in-person customized services. Their main sources of revenues are fees as a percentage of assets under management, in addition to a certain portion of clients’ gains from asset appreciation. BlackRock, Inc., Blackstone Group Inc and Brookfield Asset Management are some of the major investment management companies.
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ARCC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ARCC has been closely correlated with OBDC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 80% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ARCC jumps, then OBDC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ARCC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARCC | 100% | -1.14% | ||
| OBDC - ARCC | 80% Closely correlated | +1.20% | ||
| GBDC - ARCC | 78% Closely correlated | -1.39% | ||
| BXSL - ARCC | 76% Closely correlated | -0.33% | ||
| MSDL - ARCC | 72% Closely correlated | -3.47% | ||
| NMFC - ARCC | 72% Closely correlated | -1.29% | ||
More | ||||
OBDC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, OBDC has been closely correlated with ARCC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 80% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if OBDC jumps, then ARCC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To OBDC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OBDC | 100% | +1.20% | ||
| ARCC - OBDC | 80% Closely correlated | -1.14% | ||
| BXSL - OBDC | 78% Closely correlated | -0.33% | ||
| MSDL - OBDC | 74% Closely correlated | -3.47% | ||
| GBDC - OBDC | 73% Closely correlated | -1.39% | ||
| NCDL - OBDC | 69% Closely correlated | -1.01% | ||
More | ||||
| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| SHPU | 16.03 | 1.12 | +7.55% |
| Direxion Daily SHOP Bull 2X ETF (SHPU) | |||
| RJDI | 28.79 | 0.01 | +0.03% |
| RJ Eagle GCM Dividend Select Income ETF (RJDI) | |||
| IBMR | 25.22 | N/A | N/A |
| iShares iBonds Dec 2029 Term Muni Bond ETF (IBMR) | |||
| OCTM | 34.17 | -0.04 | -0.10% |
| FT Vest U.S. Equity Max Buffer ETF - October (OCTM) | |||
| IWX | 113.26 | -0.53 | -0.47% |
| iShares Russell Top 200 Value ETF (IWX) | |||