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ASML vs NVDA
Which Stock Would AI Choose? ASML Holding (ASML) vs. NVIDIA (NVDA) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ASML Holding has delivered significantly stronger year-to-date performance than NVIDIA amid robust demand for semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
- Both companies benefit from artificial intelligence-driven growth, with ASML supplying critical lithography systems and NVIDIA providing graphics processing units and data center solutions.
- Recent market activity shows ASML trading near multi-year highs with positive analyst sentiment, while NVIDIA has seen more modest gains and valuation compression relative to prior periods.
- Export restrictions and geopolitical factors continue to influence sentiment for both stocks, particularly regarding sales to China.
- ASML reports higher price-to-earnings multiples alongside stronger recent momentum, whereas NVIDIA maintains larger scale in revenue and market capitalization.
- Relative positioning favors ASML in short-term trend consistency, though both face sector-specific risks tied to capital expenditure cycles in technology.
Introduction
This comparison examines ASML and NVDA to highlight differences in business models, recent performance, and market positioning within the semiconductor sector. Institutional investors, active traders, and those seeking exposure to artificial intelligence infrastructure may find the analysis relevant for assessing relative value and momentum. The focus remains on verifiable developments and observable market dynamics rather than forecasts.
ASML Overview and Recent Performance
ASML Holding N.V. designs and manufactures lithography systems essential for advanced semiconductor production, holding a dominant position in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) technology. In recent market activity, the stock has posted substantial year-to-date gains exceeding 65 percent, supported by strong first-quarter 2026 results that included €8.8 billion in net sales and an upward revision to full-year guidance. Analyst upgrades and raised price targets have contributed to positive sentiment, though concerns over potential tightening of export controls to China have periodically weighed on performance. Broader demand for chip-making equipment tied to artificial intelligence expansion has underpinned resilience in recent weeks.
NVDA Overview and Recent Performance
NVIDIA Corporation develops graphics processing units and accelerated computing platforms widely used in data centers and artificial intelligence applications. The stock has recorded more modest year-to-date advances of approximately 5 to 8 percent amid record quarterly revenues reported earlier in the fiscal year. Recent trading has featured valuation compression relative to historical levels, with ongoing discussions around competition and potential regulatory developments affecting sales in certain markets. Strength in data center segments has provided support, while broader market rotation and sector volatility have influenced price behavior in recent periods.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
ASML operates primarily in semiconductor capital equipment with near-monopoly characteristics in EUV lithography, while NVIDIA focuses on chip design and software ecosystems for accelerated computing. Growth drivers differ: ASML benefits from long-cycle equipment orders, whereas NVIDIA experiences shorter-cycle demand tied to data center deployments. Recent momentum has favored ASML with outsized year-to-date returns compared to NVIDIA’s more tempered advances. Risk factors include geopolitical export constraints for both, alongside ASML’s exposure to concentrated customer bases and NVIDIA’s sensitivity to valuation multiples and competitive intensity. Sector exposure places ASML in equipment manufacturing and NVIDIA in semiconductor design, resulting in distinct correlations to broader technology spending patterns and market sentiment.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors including stronger recent trend consistency, elevated year-to-date returns, and positive analyst revisions, Tickeron’s AI models currently assign a higher probabilistic preference to ASML over NVDA. Stability in order momentum and positioning within the semiconductor supply chain support this assessment, though outcomes remain subject to evolving market conditions and sector catalysts.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ASML is a Hold and NVDA is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ASML’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileNVDA’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- ASML’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- NVDA’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ASML’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NVDA’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ASML’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- NVDA’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ASML (@Electronic Production Equipment) experienced а -5.20% price change this week, while NVDA (@Semiconductors) price change was -0.33% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was +1.14%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.47%, and the average quarterly price growth was +77.54%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was +3.52%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.56%, and the average quarterly price growth was +66.95%.
Reported Earning Dates
ASML is expected to report earnings on Jul 15, 2026.
NVDA is expected to report earnings on Aug 26, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronic Production Equipment (+1.14% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
@Semiconductors (+3.52% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
| ASML | NVDA | ASML / NVDA | |
| Capitalization | 671B | 4.94T | 14% |
| EBITDA | 11.9B | 193B | 6% |
| Gain YTD | 64.109 | 5.726 | 1,120% |
| P/E Ratio | 60.06 | 31.26 | 192% |
| Revenue | 33.7B | 253B | 13% |
| Total Cash | 8.38B | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 2.71B | 12.3B | 22% |
ASML | NVDA | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 72 | 63 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 85 Overvalued | 78 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 20 | 8 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 19 | 11 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 37 | 51 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 9 | 88 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NVDA's Valuation (78) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ASML (85) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that NVDA’s stock grew similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
NVDA's Profit vs Risk Rating (8) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ASML (20) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that NVDA’s stock grew similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
NVDA's SMR Rating (11) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ASML (19) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that NVDA’s stock grew similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's Price Growth Rating (37) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as NVDA (51) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML’s stock grew similarly to NVDA’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's P/E Growth Rating (9) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is significantly better than the same rating for NVDA (88) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML’s stock grew significantly faster than NVDA’s over the last 12 months.
| ASML | NVDA | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 80% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 72% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | N/A |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 75% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 22 days ago 73% | 25 days ago 82% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 66% | 8 days ago 69% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 78% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 79% |
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