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ASML vs NVDA
Which Stock Would AI Choose? ASML Holding (ASML) vs. NVIDIA (NVDA) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ASML and NVDA both operate in the semiconductor sector but target distinct segments of the AI supply chain, with ASML focused on lithography equipment and NVDA on graphics processing units (GPUs).
- Recent market activity shows ASML delivering stronger year-to-date returns compared with NVDA in certain comparative analyses, though both stocks have experienced volatility amid broader technology sector movements.
- NVDA maintains a significantly larger market capitalization, reflecting its dominant position in AI chip demand, while ASML benefits from its near-monopoly status in advanced chip manufacturing tools.
- Sentiment for both companies remains influenced by ongoing AI infrastructure investments, with ASML tied to global semiconductor production capacity and NVDA directly linked to AI training and inference workloads.
- Technical indicators from recent comparisons classify both stocks as holds, with ASML showing relatively stronger short- and long-term positioning in some models.
- Risk factors include geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains for ASML and intense competition plus valuation concerns for NVDA.
Introduction
This comparison examines ASML Holding N.V. and NVIDIA Corporation, two key players in the semiconductor industry whose products underpin advancements in artificial intelligence. Investors and traders focused on technology sector exposure, AI-driven growth themes, and relative performance within high-growth equities may find this analysis relevant. The discussion highlights observable differences in business models, recent market behavior, and positioning to support informed evaluation of their respective profiles in the current environment.
ASML Overview and Recent Performance
ASML Holding N.V. designs and manufactures lithography systems essential for producing advanced semiconductors. Its extreme ultraviolet (EUV) technology supports the fabrication of next-generation chips used across computing, mobile, and AI applications. In recent weeks, ASML stock has reflected broader semiconductor sector dynamics, with performance influenced by updates on global chip demand and production capacity expansions. Market activity has shown resilience tied to long-term technology investment trends, though subject to fluctuations from macroeconomic factors and trade policy developments. Sentiment remains supported by the company’s specialized role in enabling AI hardware scaling.
NVDA Overview and Recent Performance
NVIDIA Corporation develops graphics processing units (GPUs) and related software platforms central to AI training, inference, and accelerated computing. Its data center segment has driven substantial revenue growth from demand for AI accelerators. Recent market activity for NVDA has aligned with ongoing AI infrastructure buildouts, resulting in price movements responsive to earnings reports, competitive announcements, and sector rotation. Performance in recent weeks has been shaped by investor focus on AI monetization timelines and supply constraints, contributing to volatility within the technology space. Overall positioning continues to reflect leadership in GPU-based AI solutions.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
ASML operates as a capital-equipment provider with high barriers to entry due to its specialized technology, while NVDA functions as a chip designer and seller with broader exposure to end-user AI demand. Growth drivers differ: ASML benefits from semiconductor foundry expansions globally, whereas NVDA gains from direct AI workload scaling. Recent momentum has favored ASML in select comparative return metrics over shorter periods, though NVDA holds a larger overall market presence. Risk factors include export restrictions impacting ASML’s customer base and competitive pressures plus elevated valuations for NVDA. Sector exposure overlaps in semiconductors yet contrasts in supply-chain positioning, with market sentiment reflecting shared AI tailwinds alongside distinct operational sensitivities.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors including trend consistency, relative stability indicators, and positioning within recent comparative analyses, Tickeron’s AI models currently assign a probabilistic preference toward ASML for balanced exposure in the near term. This assessment draws from technical and fundamental scoring that highlights stronger short- and long-term signals for ASML relative to NVDA in available frameworks. Outcomes remain contingent on evolving market conditions and should be evaluated alongside individual risk tolerance.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ASML is a Hold and NVDA is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ASML’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileNVDA’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- ASML’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- NVDA’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ASML’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NVDA’s TA Score has 2 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ASML’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 3 bearish.
- NVDA’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 7 bearish.
Price Growth
ASML (@Electronic Production Equipment) experienced а -4.82% price change this week, while NVDA (@Semiconductors) price change was -3.33% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was -2.27%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -18.03%, and the average quarterly price growth was +38.82%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was -2.05%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -13.37%, and the average quarterly price growth was +33.18%.
Reported Earning Dates
ASML is expected to report earnings on Oct 14, 2026.
NVDA is expected to report earnings on Aug 26, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronic Production Equipment (-2.27% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
@Semiconductors (-2.05% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
| ASML | NVDA | ASML / NVDA | |
| Capitalization | 683B | 4.76T | 14% |
| EBITDA | 11.9B | 193B | 6% |
| Gain YTD | 55.467 | 5.501 | 1,008% |
| P/E Ratio | 57.27 | 30.09 | 190% |
| Revenue | 33.7B | 253B | 13% |
| Total Cash | 8.38B | 80.6B | 10% |
| Total Debt | 2.71B | 12.3B | 22% |
ASML | NVDA | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 85 Overvalued | 80 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 19 | 8 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 19 | 11 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 37 | 47 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 8 | 90 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NVDA's Valuation (80) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ASML (85) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that NVDA’s stock grew similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
NVDA's Profit vs Risk Rating (8) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ASML (19) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that NVDA’s stock grew similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
NVDA's SMR Rating (11) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ASML (19) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that NVDA’s stock grew similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's Price Growth Rating (37) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as NVDA (47) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML’s stock grew similarly to NVDA’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's P/E Growth Rating (8) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is significantly better than the same rating for NVDA (90) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML’s stock grew significantly faster than NVDA’s over the last 12 months.
| ASML | NVDA | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 76% | 4 days ago 72% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 74% | 4 days ago 77% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 70% | 4 days ago 80% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 76% | 4 days ago 80% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 67% | 4 days ago 78% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 73% | 6 days ago 82% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 67% | 4 days ago 69% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 4 days ago 66% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 75% | 4 days ago 65% |
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ASML and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ASML has been closely correlated with LRCX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 84% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ASML jumps, then LRCX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ASML | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASML | 100% | -5.80% | ||
| LRCX - ASML | 84% Closely correlated | -4.46% | ||
| AMAT - ASML | 80% Closely correlated | -3.61% | ||
| KLAC - ASML | 79% Closely correlated | -3.40% | ||
| NVMI - ASML | 76% Closely correlated | -2.08% | ||
| ONTO - ASML | 70% Closely correlated | -3.77% | ||
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