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ASML vs NVDA
Which Stock Would AI Choose? ASML Holding (ASML) vs. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ASML has surged over 40% year-to-date, significantly outperforming NVDA's approximately 4% gain amid robust AI-driven demand for lithography equipment.
- NVDA boasts a massive $4.76 trillion market cap and reported record Q4 revenue of $68.1 billion, up 73% year-over-year, with Q1 guidance at $78 billion.
- Both stocks benefit from AI tailwinds, but ASML faces export restrictions to China while NVDA contends with intensifying competition in GPUs.
- Analysts rate ASML with strong buy consensus (23/29 firms), while NVDA maintains strong buy overall despite recent valuation pressures.
- ASML's P/E at 52x exceeds NVDA's 48x, reflecting higher growth expectations for semiconductor tools.
Introduction
ASML Holding (ASML) and NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) stand at the forefront of the AI and semiconductor revolution, powering advanced chip production and computation. ASML's monopoly on extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines enables cutting-edge chips, while NVDA dominates AI GPUs for data centers. This stock comparison analyzes their recent performance, growth drivers, and market positioning in the current environment of surging AI demand. Traders seeking momentum plays and investors eyeing long-term AI exposure will find value in understanding their relative strengths, risks, and sentiment shifts for informed portfolio decisions.
ASML Overview and Recent Performance
ASML Holding, headquartered in the Netherlands, is the sole provider of EUV lithography systems critical for manufacturing advanced semiconductors used in AI chips. In recent market activity, ASML shares have climbed sharply, gaining over 40% year-to-date and around 10% in the past month, trading near $1,526 with a market cap exceeding $590 billion. This momentum stems from robust demand for high-NA EUV systems, a $38.8 billion order backlog, and AI-fueled growth in logic and DRAM production. Analysts highlight 31% revenue rebound in FY2025 to $32.7 billion, with gross margins at 52.8% and strong buy ratings from 23 of 29 firms. Sentiment has improved on EUV advancements and shipments like the TWINSCAN EXE:5200B, though export curbs to China pose headwinds. The stock holds above key moving averages, signaling sustained uptrend resilience.
NVDA Overview and Recent Performance
NVIDIA Corporation leads in GPUs and AI accelerators, with its data center segment driving explosive growth. Recently, NVDA shares traded around $196, posting modest year-to-date gains of about 5% and 4-5% monthly advances amid broader tech rotation. The Q4 FY2026 results showcased record $68.1 billion revenue, up 73% year-over-year, beating estimates, with data center sales at $62.3 billion and Q1 guidance of $78 billion signaling reacceleration. Market cap nears $4.76 trillion, with P/E at 48x. Positive catalysts include Blackwell GPU demand and CEO comments on AI milestones, though shares faced pressure from high expectations and competition signals from Intel and AMD. Technicals show neutral momentum with buy ratings on weekly/monthly frames, supported by strong earnings visibility.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
ASML's business model centers on specialized lithography equipment with near-monopoly status, contrasting NVDA's end-to-end AI chip design and software ecosystem. Growth drivers diverge: ASML leverages a $38.8 billion backlog and EUV exclusivity for steady 15-30% revenue expansion, while NVDA rides 70%+ data center surges from hyperscaler capex. Recent momentum favors ASML's 40% YTD run versus NVDA's steadier 50% annual gain, though NVDA's scale yields higher absolute EBITDA ($119B vs. $12.3B). Risk factors include ASML's China exposure (down to 25% sales) and geopolitical curbs versus NVDA's supply constraints and rival GPU threats. Both expose to AI/semiconductors, but ASML offers upstream stability, NVDA downstream velocity. Sentiment tilts bullish for both, with ASML's higher P/E signaling premium on tool demand durability amid NVDA's valuation digestion post-earnings.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI leans toward ASML in the current environment, favoring its superior trend consistency, YTD outperformance, and stable backlog positioning over NVDA's post-earnings consolidation. Observable catalysts like EUV demand and analyst upgrades suggest higher short-term probability of continued momentum for ASML, though NVDA's guidance strength keeps it competitive probabilistically.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ASML is a StrongBuy and NVDA is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ASML’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileNVDA’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- ASML’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- NVDA’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ASML’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NVDA’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ASML’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- NVDA’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
ASML (@Electronic Production Equipment) experienced а +1.80% price change this week, while NVDA (@Semiconductors) price change was -2.74% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was -5.00%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.66%, and the average quarterly price growth was +104.91%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was -7.85%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +10.34%, and the average quarterly price growth was +77.02%.
Reported Earning Dates
ASML is expected to report earnings on Jul 15, 2026.
NVDA is expected to report earnings on Aug 26, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronic Production Equipment (-5.00% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
@Semiconductors (-7.85% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
| ASML | NVDA | ASML / NVDA | |
| Capitalization | 654B | 5.3T | 12% |
| EBITDA | 11.9B | 193B | 6% |
| Gain YTD | 54.197 | 10.112 | 536% |
| P/E Ratio | 54.69 | 31.41 | 174% |
| Revenue | 33.7B | 253B | 13% |
| Total Cash | N/A | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | N/A | 12.3B | - |
ASML | NVDA | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 31 | 73 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 82 Overvalued | 78 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 20 | 7 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 19 | 11 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 37 | 17 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 13 | 80 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 65 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NVDA's Valuation (78) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ASML (82) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that NVDA’s stock grew similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
NVDA's Profit vs Risk Rating (7) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ASML (20) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that NVDA’s stock grew similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
NVDA's SMR Rating (11) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ASML (19) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that NVDA’s stock grew similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
NVDA's Price Growth Rating (17) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ASML (37) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that NVDA’s stock grew similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's P/E Growth Rating (13) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is significantly better than the same rating for NVDA (80) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML’s stock grew significantly faster than NVDA’s over the last 12 months.
| ASML | NVDA | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 89% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 69% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 70% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 78% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 72% | 24 days ago 83% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 66% | 4 days ago 68% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 89% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 81% |
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