Advertisement
ASML vs NVDA
Which Stock Would AI Choose? ASML Holding (ASML) vs. NVIDIA (NVDA) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ASML and NVIDIA sit at opposite ends of the AI chip supply chain: ASML builds the lithography machines that manufacture advanced chips, while NVIDIA designs and sells the AI accelerators that power data centers.
- ASML holds a near-monopoly in EUV (extreme ultraviolet) lithography; NVIDIA commands a dominant share of the AI GPU (graphics processing unit) and accelerator market.
- NVIDIA generates far larger revenue and faster growth, while ASML offers a more diversified, equipment-driven revenue base tied to global capital expenditure cycles.
- Both companies are sensitive to export controls and China-related restrictions, though through different channels.
- Relative performance and market positioning differ sharply: NVIDIA trades on AI demand momentum, while ASML's valuation reflects long-term wafer fab capacity planning.
Introduction
ASML and NVIDIA are two of the most important companies in the global semiconductor industry, yet they operate at fundamentally different stages of the value chain. ASML supplies the advanced lithography systems without which the world's most sophisticated chips cannot be manufactured, while NVIDIA designs the AI accelerators those chips become. For traders and investors weighing a stock comparison between ASML and NVDA, the relevant question is not simply which company is growing faster, but which business model offers the more favorable balance of growth, stability, and risk in the current market environment.
ASML Overview and Recent Performance
ASML Holding N.V. is a Dutch semiconductor equipment maker and the world's sole supplier of EUV (extreme ultraviolet) lithography systems, the machines required to produce leading-edge logic and memory chips at advanced nodes. Its customers include TSMC, Samsung, and Intel, giving ASML extraordinary pricing power and strategic importance within the semiconductor ecosystem.
In recent market activity, ASML shares have rallied strongly as sentiment around durable AI demand improved. In its most recent reported results, the company posted record quarterly net sales, supported by a sharp rebound in bookings for EUV systems, and management guided for continued growth in the following year. The company also announced a substantial new share-buyback program and a dividend increase, reinforcing shareholder returns. Meanwhile, ASML signaled that China-related sales are expected to decline as a share of revenue, a reminder of the geopolitical sensitivities embedded in its business. Broader momentum has been driven by rising expectations that AI infrastructure buildouts will translate into sustained capacity expansions at ASML's customers.
NVDA Overview and Recent Performance
NVIDIA Corporation designs GPUs (graphics processing units) and full-stack computing platforms that have become the backbone of the artificial intelligence boom. Its data-center business, driven by demand for its Blackwell and upcoming Rubin architectures, now accounts for the overwhelming majority of revenue and has made NVIDIA one of the world's most valuable companies.
In its most recent reported quarter, NVIDIA delivered roughly 60% year-over-year revenue growth, with data-center revenue rising even faster, and provided guidance above market expectations. Management described demand for its cloud GPUs as effectively sold out and cited multi-hundred-billion-dollar order visibility across its Blackwell and Rubin platforms. These results helped ease investor anxiety around an "AI bubble" narrative that had pressured technology shares in prior weeks. At the same time, NVIDIA faces scrutiny over customer concentration, custom-chip competition, and export restrictions that have curtailed its ability to sell high-performance accelerators into China. Its relative performance continues to hinge on the pace and durability of hyperscaler capital spending.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron operates hundreds of AI trading bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers across a wide range of strategies, timeframes, and performance profiles. Because market conditions change constantly, only a select group of these bots is featured at any given time. The Trending AI Robots page curates the bots currently best suited to prevailing market conditions, each with its own trading style, statistical track record, and universe of tickers. This filtering helps traders identify automated strategies that are performing well in the present environment rather than relying on historical or generic rankings. If you are interested in exploring how algorithmic approaches are navigating stocks such as ASML and NVIDIA, the Trending AI Robots section is a practical starting point.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The most important contrast between these two companies is their position in the semiconductor value chain. ASML is a capital-equipment supplier whose revenue depends on customers' multi-year fab expansion plans, making it somewhat more cyclical and sensitive to order timing. NVIDIA, by contrast, sells the AI accelerators themselves and captures demand more directly, which has translated into dramatically higher revenue growth and a larger market capitalization.
Growth drivers also differ. ASML benefits from the industry-wide transition to smaller nodes and the adoption of High-NA EUV systems, but its growth is paced by customers' capacity decisions. NVIDIA's growth is tied to the immediate appetite for AI compute, hyperscaler budgets, and the cadence of its own product launches. On risk, both companies face export-control exposure, but ASML also carries concentration risk from a small number of large customers and a heavy reliance on EUV, while NVIDIA faces rising custom-chip competition and questions about whether AI infrastructure spending can sustain its current trajectory.
Market sentiment has favored momentum in NVIDIA's shares, while ASML has attracted investors seeking a more diversified, equipment-driven profile with strong cash returns. In terms of relative performance, NVIDIA has historically exhibited higher volatility and sharper moves on AI-related headlines, whereas ASML's stock has reacted most strongly to booking trends and guidance revisions.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, momentum, catalyst visibility, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor NVDA in the current environment. NVIDIA's combination of sustained revenue growth, strong forward guidance, and deep order visibility points to a more consistent short-to-medium-term trend. That said, the verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: ASML's near-monopoly in EUV lithography and improving bookings offer a compelling longer-horizon case, and any shift in AI spending sentiment could alter relative positioning quickly. The AI-driven assessment weighs momentum and catalyst clarity more heavily, which currently tilts in NVIDIA's favor.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ASML is a Hold and NVDA is a StrongBuy.
ASML sees MACD Histogram just turned negative
ASML saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on October 12, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 instances where the indicator turned negative. In 35 of the 43 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at 81%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 12, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ASML as a result. In 65 of 89 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
ASML moved below its 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ASML crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 79%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ASML declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where ASML's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 18 of 24 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 9 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +5.19% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ASML advanced for three days, in 226 of 313 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
ASML may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 186 of 240 cases where ASML Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 77%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 28 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ASML’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 89 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ASML's P/B Ratio (27.662) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (6.365). P/E Ratio (61.785) is within average values for comparable stocks, (86.150). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.086) is also within normal values, averaging (0.801). Dividend Yield (0.005) settles around the average of (0.009) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (15.175) is also within normal values, averaging (27.897).
Aroon Indicator for NVDA shows an upward move is likely
NVDA's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on October 15, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 335 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In 294 of the 335 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at 88%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 9 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +2.26% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NVDA advanced for three days, in 296 of 356 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
NVDA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for NVDA moved out of overbought territory on October 07, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 31 of the 44 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 70%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NVDA as a result. In 57 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for NVDA turned negative on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 32 of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 68%.
NVDA moved below its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for NVDA crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 14 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 78%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NVDA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 6 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NVDA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 81 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: NVDA's P/B Ratio (22.246) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (6.017). P/E Ratio (26.536) is within average values for comparable stocks, (20.775). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.478) is also within normal values, averaging (3.761). Dividend Yield (0.005) settles around the average of (0.012) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (17.212) is also within normal values, averaging (45.794).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
ASML | NVDA | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 64 | 77 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 89 Overvalued | 81 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 28 | 6 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 20 | 13 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 52 | 52 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 7 | 88 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NVDA's Valuation (81) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ASML (89) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that NVDA’s stock grew similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
NVDA's Profit vs Risk Rating (6) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ASML (28) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that NVDA’s stock grew similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
NVDA's SMR Rating (13) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ASML (20) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that NVDA’s stock grew similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
NVDA's Price Growth Rating (52) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ASML (52) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that NVDA’s stock grew similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's P/E Growth Rating (7) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is significantly better than the same rating for NVDA (88) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML’s stock grew significantly faster than NVDA’s over the last 12 months.
| ASML | NVDA | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 70% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 84% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 70% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 68% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 71% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 75% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 26 days ago 72% | 19 days ago 83% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 69% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 86% | 2 days ago 82% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 88% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ASML’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while NVDA’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- ASML’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- NVDA’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ASML’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NVDA’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ASML’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- NVDA’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
ASML (@Electronic Production Equipment) experienced а -4.25% price change this week, while NVDA (@Semiconductors) price change was -1.48% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was -4.19%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -22.43%, and the average quarterly price growth was -32.54%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was -3.52%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -18.49%, and the average quarterly price growth was -11.79%.
Reported Earning Dates
ASML is expected to report earnings on Jan 27, 2027.
NVDA is expected to report earnings on Nov 18, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronic Production Equipment (-4.19% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
@Semiconductors (-3.52% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Advertisement