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ASO vs LOW
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) vs. Lowe's Companies (LOW) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Different scale, different scope: ASO is a roughly $3.6 billion sporting goods retailer, while LOW is a Fortune 100 home improvement chain with a market capitalization above $120 billion.
- Valuation gap is wide: ASO trades at a single-digit forward earnings multiple, far below LOW's mid-teens multiple, reflecting its smaller scale and higher short interest.
- Growth profiles differ: ASO is expanding its store base and e-commerce footprint, while LOW is growing through acquisitions and its professional (Pro) customer segment.
- Momentum has favored ASO: recent market activity has shown ASO gaining ground, while LOW has lagged the broader market over the past year.
- Risk profiles are distinct: ASO carries meaningful short interest, whereas LOW faces sensitivity to housing turnover and elevated borrowing costs.
Introduction
Investors comparing ASO and LOW are weighing two very different expressions of U.S. consumer discretionary spending. Academy Sports and Outdoors is a regional sporting goods and outdoor recreation retailer expanding toward national reach, while Lowe's Companies is a sprawling home improvement giant serving roughly 16 million customer transactions each week. A stock comparison between the two highlights trade-offs in valuation, growth drivers, and risk that appeal to different kinds of investors — from value-oriented traders focused on relative performance to longer-term investors assessing market positioning across the retail landscape.
ASO Overview and Recent Performance
Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) operates a chain of sporting goods and outdoor recreation stores headquartered in Katy, Texas, selling hunting, fishing, camping, footwear, apparel, and team sports merchandise. In its most recent quarterly report, net sales rose 3.0% year over year to $1.65 billion, while adjusted earnings per share (EPS) climbed roughly 19% to $2.31. Gross margin widened by about 440 basis points, though the company acknowledged a portion of that expansion stemmed from a tariff refund that is not expected to repeat.
Recent market activity has been comparatively favorable. The shares have advanced over recent weeks and months, aided by raised full-year earnings guidance, double-digit e-commerce growth, new store openings, and a loyalty membership base that has surpassed 15 million. However, comparable sales declined modestly, and elevated short interest in the low-20% range of the float signals continued skepticism about whether demand can sustain the momentum. The stock's forward earnings multiple remains in the single digits, well below the broader specialty retail average.
LOW Overview and Recent Performance
Lowe's Companies (LOW), based in Mooresville, North Carolina, is one of the world's largest home improvement retailers, operating more than 1,700 stores alongside distribution centers and professional-focused locations. In its most recent fiscal quarter, total sales rose roughly 11% year over year to about $20.6 billion, while comparable sales increased 1.3%, driven by the Pro segment, online sales, and home services. Full-year sales exceeded $86 billion.
Recent market activity has been more mixed. The company completed acquisitions of Foundation Building Materials and Artisan Design Group to deepen its reach with professional contractors, but integration costs have weighed on operating margins. Management's forward guidance struck a cautious tone, projecting comparable sales roughly flat to up 2% amid a pressured housing market and elevated borrowing costs. Over the past year, the stock has underperformed the broader market, though its scale, dividend, and consistent cash generation provide a stability-oriented profile that contrasts with smaller retailers.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two companies is scale and sector exposure. ASO is a mid-sized specialty retailer concentrated in outdoor and sporting categories, with a growth narrative built on store expansion, e-commerce acceleration, and private-label merchandising. Its forward earnings multiple sits well below the broader specialty retail sector, reflecting both a discount valuation and a meaningful short position against the stock. LOW, by contrast, operates at vastly larger scale within the home improvement sector, where demand is tightly linked to housing turnover, mortgage rates, and homeowner renovation activity.
Growth drivers also diverge. ASO is pursuing organic unit growth and digital penetration, with a balance sheet that carries modest leverage relative to its enterprise value. LOW is growing through acquisitions and productivity initiatives while returning capital through a well-established dividend. On risk, ASO faces consumer pressure in lower-income segments and promotional competition, while LOW contends with elevated interest rates and macro uncertainty that suppress big-ticket discretionary projects. Market sentiment has recently favored ASO's momentum, even as its valuation discount signals deeper investor caution.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward ASO in the current environment, primarily because of its stronger recent trend consistency and upward momentum relative to LOW. The combination of rising earnings guidance, expanding e-commerce, and an improving price trajectory presents a more favorable short-term technical and fundamental setup. That said, the elevated short interest and reliance on margin tailwinds that may not repeat introduce uncertainty, meaning the AI's preference is probabilistic rather than definitive. LOW retains advantages in stability, scale, and income, which could make it the more consistent choice for risk-averse investors, but its current momentum and macro sensitivity appear less compelling to a trend-following model at this time.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ASO is a Buy and LOW is a StrongBuy.
ASO's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ASO turned positive on November 04, 2026. Looking at past instances where ASO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 41 of 52 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ASO as a result. In 67 of 87 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
The 50-day moving average for ASO moved above the 200-day moving average on November 05, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a +11.42% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ASO advanced for three days, in 221 of 297 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 177 of 240 cases where ASO Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 74%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ASO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
ASO broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 17 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ASO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 53 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 58 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.901) is normal, around the industry mean (2.289). P/E Ratio (11.027) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.578). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.602) is also within normal values, averaging (1.159). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.100) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.541) is also within normal values, averaging (1.057).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
LOW in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026
LOW moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 32 of 43 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on LOW as a result. In 52 of 82 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for LOW just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where LOW's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The 10-day moving average for LOW crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Following a +5.24% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LOW advanced for three days, in 178 of 317 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 114 of 233 cases where LOW Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 49%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LOW declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
LOW broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 6 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. LOW’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 75 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. LOW’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 84 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: LOW's P/B Ratio (-16.940) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.488). P/E Ratio (18.965) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.136). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.222) is also within normal values, averaging (1.177). Dividend Yield (0.022) settles around the average of (0.233) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.202) is also within normal values, averaging (0.937).
ASO | LOW | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 58 Fair valued | 84 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 53 | 75 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 48 | 6 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 35 | 41 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 17 | 46 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ASO's Valuation (58) in the null industry is in the same range as LOW (84) in the Home Improvement Chains industry. This means that ASO’s stock grew similarly to LOW’s over the last 12 months.
ASO's Profit vs Risk Rating (53) in the null industry is in the same range as LOW (75) in the Home Improvement Chains industry. This means that ASO’s stock grew similarly to LOW’s over the last 12 months.
LOW's SMR Rating (6) in the Home Improvement Chains industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ASO (48) in the null industry. This means that LOW’s stock grew somewhat faster than ASO’s over the last 12 months.
ASO's Price Growth Rating (35) in the null industry is in the same range as LOW (41) in the Home Improvement Chains industry. This means that ASO’s stock grew similarly to LOW’s over the last 12 months.
ASO's P/E Growth Rating (17) in the null industry is in the same range as LOW (46) in the Home Improvement Chains industry. This means that ASO’s stock grew similarly to LOW’s over the last 12 months.
| ASO | LOW | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 81% | 3 days ago 69% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 81% | 3 days ago 69% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 77% | 3 days ago 63% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 79% | 3 days ago 64% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 73% | 3 days ago 59% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 75% | 3 days ago 56% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 74% | 7 days ago 56% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 61% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 60% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 74% | 3 days ago 49% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ASO’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while LOW’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- ASO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- LOW’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ASO’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while LOW’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ASO’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- LOW’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
ASO (@Specialty Stores) experienced а +13.62% price change this week, while LOW (@Home Improvement Chains) price change was +7.40% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Specialty Stores industry was +2.88%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +9.12%, and the average quarterly price growth was +10.99%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Home Improvement Chains industry was +0.12%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +8.69%, and the average quarterly price growth was -4.34%.
Reported Earning Dates
ASO is expected to report earnings on Dec 08, 2026.
LOW is expected to report earnings on Nov 18, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Specialty Stores (+2.88% weekly)The specialty stores sector includes companies dedicated to the sale of retail products focused on a single product category, such as clothing, carpet, books, or office supplies. A specialty store could face intense competition from big-box departmental chains, and therefore offering an adequate collection of the product type it specializes in is key in maintaining/growing its market.
@Home Improvement Chains (+0.12% weekly)The home improvement chains industry sells home improvement merchandise and do-it-yourself repair and building goods. Customers include individual contractors or construction managers on one hand; on the other hand, there are retail consumers who’d either buy raw materials/items from the store to do a project on their own, or pay extra for installation services. Products sold include fencing supplies, lumber materials, hardware, lighting fixtures, plumbing supplies, home decor items, bathroom remodel items, roofing materials, tools and wallboard to name a few. The Home Depot Inc., Lowe’s Companies, Inc. and Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. are some of the biggest home improvement retailing companies in the U.S. Allowing all types of customers the flexibility to choose or buy products both offline and online and then having the products shipped to the respective sites/homes are some of the potential drivers of a home improvement chain’s popularity. Many big-box home improvement chains are looking to expand their overseas presence. Supply-chain efficiency and distribution management are some of the key ingredients to grow/make profit in this industry.
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ASO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ASO has been loosely correlated with FND. These tickers have moved in lockstep 63% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ASO jumps, then FND could also see price increases.
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